Key Signals Shaping the Future of AI Hardware: What Will Survive Beyond 2026?

Three Key Signals in AI Hardware: Who Will Survive Until 2026

Market Insights 01.31 01:00

As the founder of WANWU (All Things IP), Wan Yi noted, “The winds have shifted; it’s time to launch products and examine sales data.” This statement highlights a crucial change in the AI hardware sector as we approach 2026. Over the past two years, there have been numerous predictions about the “iPhone moment for AI” and the “ChatGPT moment for robots,” but very few products have successfully passed commercial validation.

Recently, Huxiu engaged in one-on-one discussions with over ten leading entrepreneurs and industry professionals. We also held extensive discussions in the Huxiu AI hardware community about market opportunities, technology choices, and cost control. The aim was to transform the authentic voices from the depths of the industry into actionable decision-making references. In this article, we share our key observations, focusing on the current mindset and thoughts of frontline players amid the industry hype. We also invite you to join our discussions to capture the growth patterns within the sector.

There is a clear shift in the industry: as the capital frenzy declines, only those who provide solutions to specific problems that users are willing to pay for will endure. Based on insights from industry leaders, we have identified three critical areas to monitor:

• Addressing a specific, high-frequency, and pay-for solution is much more sustainable than creating an all-encompassing product. This has led to a division in the sector between opportunity zones and conceptual zones.

Opportunity Zone: Vertical Scenarios Are the Real Goldmine

Products such as AI recording pens, smart translation headphones, and pet companionship robots operate on the principle of “AI enhancement of traditional categories,” rather than creating entirely new entities. Their focused scenarios and immediately perceptible value make them some of the most reliable paths in the current market. Founders like Punk Zhou from Punk Lightyear and Qu Mu from Xika Technology pointed out that AI recording and audio efficiency hardware are crucial opportunities for 2026.

The case of iFlytek headphones, shared by Hu Ren from Shanghai Legui Culture, exemplifies a precise solution to a pressing need: the combination of “7-meter audio capture + academic translation” addresses essential requirements in business and academic contexts. Industry veteran Tian Tian (PM at Shenqi Epoch) further revealed the current state of the pet market: young women constitute the core paying demographic, but the functionalities are highly homogenized, leading to a lack of competitive differentiation. CEO Pu Xin of Liangzi Spark made a more cautionary assessment: “Pure plush pet companionship toys will flood the market, as the technology barrier is low and easily replicated. Without strong branding, it’s hard to establish a foothold.” He also suggested a more viable direction: a combination of a driving robot, electronic screen, and pet form, which presents a higher technological barrier and relatively less competition. Robots with physical movements and expressive feedback will ultimately replace purely voice-interactive devices like Tmall Genie 2.0, as emotional companionship relies on body language, effectively addressing the concerns of those who want pets but fear the hassle.

This viewpoint resonates with discussions in the community about the Vbot product, which focuses on voice recognition and expressive feedback in pet-oriented design, regarded as one of the optimal product forms today. AI practitioner Luo Jia (AI Surfing Community representative and director of operations at a listed company) added that consumer-grade AI hardware focuses on smart wearables and office efficiency terminals, while home-grade products are concentrated in cleaning and companionship sub-scenarios, further confirming the profit potential in vertical scenarios.

Concept Zone: Impressive Ideas That Fail to Materialize

Categories like general humanoid robots and fully functional AI office assistants are still in the conceptual exploration phase. Due to technological maturity and cost constraints, these products either have vague applications or are prohibitively expensive, generally receiving praise without tangible market acceptance. Pu Xin remarked, “At this stage, general humanoid robots cannot meet real demands.” He also expressed caution regarding AI office equipment: “Smart office devices have specific scenarios, but the necessity for standalone AI office equipment still needs validation. The future is more likely to be a ‘central AI + multiple intelligent terminals’ dispatch model.”

To achieve profitability, controlling costs from the outset is crucial, which also delineates player tiers. Those who can manage costs effectively will be able to market products in the thousand-yuan range, making them accessible to a broader audience. Zhu Shaofeng (COO of Hangzhou Dimension Creation) noted that computational power is not currently the main constraint, as most products do not require high computational demands, allowing for cost control. Additionally, selecting cost-effective domestic large models is another path to optimize expenses. Pu Xin also mentioned that manufacturers either incorporate AI functionality costs into hardware pricing or adopt a subscription model, emphasizing that price and cost must be intertwined.

Supply Chains with Tiered Levels: Small Teams Need to Avoid Assembly Competition

Industry expert Tian Tian pointed out that Shenzhen now has many generic hardware templates, limiting small teams’ ability to rely on assembly and creativity. Ultimately, success will depend on channeling, marketing, and branding, causing hardware functions to become increasingly similar. To break through, teams must either develop core technologies themselves or innovate in branding and scenarios.

Growth of Domestic AI Chips: Driven by Policy and Market Forces

Pu Xin indicated that the growth of domestic AI chips is partly driven by government and state-owned enterprise orders and, on the other hand, by the cost demands of the consumer market. This also influences what technology routes hardware manufacturers choose in government and enterprise dealings. The year 2026 is set to be the “year of commercial validation” for AI hardware, where evaluating a company’s performance will shift from flashy concepts to tangible operational results.

Sales volume is the solid foundation; baseless claims are futile. As Wan Yi stated, the current tone of the sector is “looking at sales data.” Monthly sales and shipment numbers have become essential benchmarks for entering mainstream visibility.

Balancing Technology and Sales for Stable Profitability

Yuan Congming (master’s student at Tsinghua University) proposed a pragmatic approach to balance technology and sales: first, technology should be tiered, with some resources allocated for cutting-edge exploration and brand establishment, while another portion applies mature technologies to profitable mass-production products, avoiding the pitfalls of either overemphasizing technology without profit or lacking technology support; second, research and market teams should collaborate on product definitions, targeting specific needs like “wanting a pet but fearing the hassle” from the outset rather than merely stacking technical parameters; third, optimize technology based on market feedback, such as Vbot collecting user feedback on expressions and movements to adjust algorithms and truly meet demands. Pu Xin added that sales are a direct reflection of market feedback, and strong technological depth determines future potential; both aspects must be robust for a company to be considered good. For example, some products may lack significant technology but achieve high sales and strong data, while others may have deep technology yet lack sales, and capital recognition differs between these two categories.

AI Hardware Isn’t Free: Purchase or Subscription Models

Both Tian Tian (PM at Shenqi Epoch) and Jia Junlin (founder of Fuze Technology) agreed that the computational cost of AI hardware will continue to accrue, making “perpetual free use” unrealistic. The mainstream model will likely be “one-time hardware purchase + AI service subscription.” From breaking through the demand for AI recording pens to exploring the form of pet companionship robots; from the dual driving forces of domestic chips to the profitable loop of “hardware + subscription,” these grounded practices from the frontline represent the most vital aspects of the sector.

The future winners will be teams that can precisely answer three questions: What specific problem am I solving for whom? Why must they pay for it? What is my comparative advantage? In the interplay of technology, market, and cost, there may be multiple answers. We believe that the standards for the AI hardware sector reside within market choices and in the understanding of every observer.

We invite you to share your insights or visions regarding the future of AI hardware in the comments. The evolution of the AI hardware space is rapid, and Huxiu will continue to track frontline entrepreneurs and professionals to deepen the discussion, exploring truly sustainable growth paths amid technological iteration, market changes, and cost restructuring.

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