Global New Energy Market Forecast for H2 2024: A Comprehensive Overview
The new energy sector is at the forefront of the global shift towards sustainable energy sources. As stand at the midpoint of 2024, the Alibaba International Station’s New Energy Industry Operations Team has released a comprehensive report providing insights into the customs export data, market predictions, policy changes, and operational suggestions for the second half of 2024. This article aims to summarize the key findings of this report, focusing on the global market forecast for the new energy industry.
Customs Export Data Interpretation
The report begins with an analysis of China’s photovoltaic (PV) component export data for June 2024. Despite a 27.9% year-on-year (YoY) decline, the export value reached $2.703 billion, showing a 3.1% month-on-month (MoM) increase. This indicates the resilience of China’s PV component export market amidst global trade uncertainties. The export volume remained stable with a falling price, highlighting the provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Jiangxi as the main contributors to the export volume.
Internationally, the Netherlands, Brazil, and India continue to be the primary export destinations for Chinese PV components. Notably, there is a significant demand increase in India, South Africa, Australia, and Germany, with India’s market growth being particularly remarkable, attributed to the government’s proactive renewable energy policies.
For inverters, China’s export value reached $918 million in June 2024, with a slight 3.8% YoY decrease but an 18% MoM increase, demonstrating strong competitiveness and growth potential. The export volume for inverters in June was 5.8549 million units, with a 25.2% MoM increase.
In the lithium-ion battery sector, China’s export value reached $5.113 billion in June 2024. The sales of power and other batteries in June were 92.2GWh, with a 51.2% YoY increase. Among the top export trade partners for lithium-ion batteries were the United States, Germany, and South Korea.
H2 2024 Key Overseas Market Forecasts
European Market Outlook for 2024: Photovoltaics
The European Union is expected to see a total of 62GW of new PV installations in 2024, an 11% increase YoY. Rooftop PV is projected to grow by 5%, while utility-scale PV is expected to grow by 21%, driven by large-scale ground projects sensitive to interest rates.
Ukraine’s post-war demand for energy infrastructure is significant, with the government offering interest-free loans for citizens to purchase alternative energy generation equipment, such as solar panels and wind turbines.
European Market Outlook for 2024: Energy Storage
Europe’s high electricity prices and good photovoltaic storage return rates have led to a boom in residential PV storage installations. However, due to economic downturns and policy subsidy reductions, the growth rate of household storage installations is expected to slow down. Nevertheless, the demand for storage is expected to return to a stable growth rate in the long term.
US Market Outlook for 2024: Photovoltaics
The US in Q1 2024, with 11.8GW of new PV installations, a 93% YoY increase. The full-year projection for 2024 is 38GW, a 17% increase YoY. The US market is expected to maintain this growth rate due to the Southeast Asia tariff-driven rush to install.
US Market Outlook for 2024: Energy Storage
The US energy storage market set a record for the highest installed capacity in the first quarter, with 1,265 MW installed, an 84% increase YoY. The utility-scale storage sector saw the largest Q1 increase, with Nevada, California, and Texas accounting for 90% of the new capacity.
Emerging Markets Outlook for 2024: India
India has ambitious long-term PV installation targets, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% to 20%. The government’s National Electricity Plan aims for 185.6GW of PV capacity by 2026-2027 and 364.6GW by 2031-2032.
Emerging Markets Outlook for 2024: Pakistan
Pakistan’s inverter exports from China reached $125.2 million in the first five months of 2024, a 251.4% YoY increase. Pakistan has high solar power potential due to its geographical location and long hours of sunlight. The country’s weak grid infrastructure and recent power outages have highlighted the need for reliable electricity, making solar power more economically viable.
Emerging Markets Outlook for 2024: Turkey
Turkey has set ambitious targets in its national energy plan, aiming for 17.9GW, 32.9GW, and 52.9GW of cumulative PV installations by 2025, 2030, and 2035, respectively. This requires an average annual installation of over 3GW from 2024 to 2030 and over 4GW from 2031 to 2035.
Emerging Markets Outlook for 2024: Latin America
Latin America is expected to add over 165GW of renewable energy from 2023 to 2028, with Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Argentina accounting for 90% of this increase. Brazil’s low hydropower generation and increasing electricity demand have driven the economic viability of PV power generation.
Recent Overseas Policy Changes
Several countries have introduced policies to support the new energy sector. Japan’s Tokyo Metropolitan Government will require new residential buildings to install solar panels from April 2025. Canada’s British Columbia Hydro is offering rebates for the installation of rooftop solar and battery storage systems. China’s Free Trade Agreement with Serbia has come into effect, offering tax exemptions on PV components, lithium-ion batteries, and inverters.
In summary, the global new energy market is poised for continued growth, with key regions like Europe and the US leading the way. Emerging markets are also set to play a significant role, driven by government policies and the increasing economic viability of renewable energy solutions. Businesses that can adapt to these changing dynamics and capitalize on the opportunities presented by the new energy sector are well-positioned for success in the second half of 2024 and beyond.