Debate Among Brokers: Holding Cash or Stocks During the Festival, with Focus on Opportunities in Commercial Space and Humanoid Robots

Brokerage firms are actively discussing the question of whether to hold cash or stocks during the holiday season, with a focus on opportunities in commercial space and humanoid robot configurations.

On February 7, at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, China successfully launched a new type of reusable experimental spacecraft using the Long March 2F carrier rocket. This spacecraft will conduct tests to validate reusable spacecraft technology, providing technical support for the peaceful use of space.

According to Dongwu Securities, the choice between holding cash and holding stocks during the holiday season is crucial, as the market is expected to rebound next week. Historically, the A-share market has shown significant “Spring Festival effects,” leading to several observations:

• Volume Trends: Typically, there is a pattern of “decreased volume before the holiday and increased volume afterward.” Historical data indicates that market volumes usually start to decline about eight trading days before the holiday, with recent total A-share trading values dropping below 2.5 trillion yuan, nearing the 2 trillion yuan mark. According to past trends, this decline in volume generally continues until the first trading day after the holiday, after which market activity significantly increases.
• Market Trends: The week before the holiday is often the best time for index positioning, as a rebound usually begins around five trading days prior to the holiday. Analyzing the market since 2006 shows that after a period of fluctuation, a trend rebound typically starts about five trading days before the holiday, lasting until around the sixth trading day after the holiday.
• Style Rotation: Notable style reversals between large-cap and small-cap stocks occur around the holiday. Generally, large-cap stocks outperform small-caps before the holiday, while small-cap stocks tend to take the lead after.

Understanding the “Spring Festival effect” involves recognizing that trading sentiment is typically low before the holiday and rebounds afterward. This is characterized by three main aspects: shifts in volume and turnover, style preferences changing with the return of active capital, and a market sentiment index indicating a 33% win rate in the five trading days before the holiday compared to a 100% win rate afterward.

Overall, the factors currently suppressing the market are expected to weaken over time. Given the seasonal trends, a market rebound is anticipated next week, which may continue for several trading days post-holiday. Investors are encouraged to consider holding stocks during this period.

In terms of investment direction, it is advisable to focus on sectors that have been overly priced during the recent adjustments, including domestic chips, semiconductor equipment, memory chips, computing communication, and cloud computing. Additionally, sectors showing growth potential, such as energy storage and the lithium battery industry, as well as themes related to the “14th Five-Year Plan,” including commercial aerospace, 6G, nuclear energy, hydrogen energy, quantum communication, and brain-computer interfaces, should also be considered.

Guotai Junan Securities emphasizes the importance of the aerospace sector, suggesting that rocket capacity is akin to computing power. Companies positioned in the key segments of the rocket supply chain are likely to benefit from long-term valuation premiums. The demand for core engine materials, which are scarce resources, is expected to rise as the demand for rockets increases.

In 2026, it is projected to be a groundbreaking year for commercial aerospace with a focus on reusable rockets. Key companies to watch include Aerospace Power, Feiwo Technology, Western Materials, Superjet, and Guanglian Aviation.

Guosen Securities highlights the advancements in perovskite solar cells, which are recognized as the third generation of batteries. These cells have advantages such as simple synthesis processes, high photovoltaic conversion efficiency, and low costs. The cost of producing perovskite solar cells is expected to decrease significantly by 2026, making them competitive with traditional silicon solar cells.

Investors should pay attention to the core segments of the perovskite industry chain, focusing on leading manufacturers of stacked technology such as GCL-Poly, Longi Green Energy, Trina Solar, and JinkoSolar, as well as equipment companies with high domestic production rates and ample orders.

Orient Securities notes the growing trend toward humanoid robots, which are becoming increasingly human-like. As Tesla’s V3 version of Optimus aims for greater humanoid capabilities, domestic manufacturers are making strides in this area. The development of magnetic encoders is favored as they offer better pricing advantages over optical encoders, making them suitable for mass production.

The demand for encoders in humanoid robots is expected to grow as their design becomes more sophisticated. Investments in companies like Inovance Technology, Hechuan Technology, and Xinjie Electric may benefit from this trend.