The projected emissions reductions for electric vehicles (EVs) by 2035 are substantial on a global scale, driven primarily by the electrification of road transport combined with grid decarbonization efforts.
Global Projections
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Emissions Reductions from EVs by 2035
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), vehicles purchased in 2035 will see well-to-tank emissions decrease by 55% under the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and by 75% in the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS). This improvement results from a 50-65% drop in the emissions intensity of electricity generation between 2023 and 2035. -
Net Emissions Savings
The global electrification of road transport is expected to avoid over 2 gigatons (Gt) of CO2 equivalent emissions on a well-to-wheels basis in 2035. Although EVs add some emissions due to electricity generation (estimated at over 380 million tons CO2-eq), this is far outweighed by emissions avoided by replacing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The resulting net saving is around 1.8 Gt CO2-eq in STEPS and up to about 2 Gt CO2-eq in the APS.
Regional and Policy Specific Insights
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California’s 2035 Zero-Emission Vehicle Mandate
California aims for 100% of new cars and light trucks sold by 2035 to be zero-emission vehicles. This policy is projected to cut climate-warming pollution cumulatively by 395 million metric tons from 2026 through 2040, which includes a significant emissions drop from 2035 onwards when new conventional vehicle sales nearly cease. -
U.S. Market Growth
The U.S. expects a significant rise in EV adoption, projecting 78.5 million EVs on roads by 2035. Though exact emissions reductions are not detailed in that source, this scale of adoption implies meaningful emissions mitigation. -
Challenges and Transition Pace
Despite exponential growth, EVs currently represent a small fraction of new vehicle sales globally. Vehicle fleet turnover is slow (about 20 years for passenger vehicles), so the most substantial emissions reductions will accrue progressively through the 2030s and beyond. Continued improvements in conventional vehicle efficiency also contribute to near-term emissions mitigation.
Summary
By 2035, EVs are projected to contribute to:
- A reduction of well-to-tank emissions by 55-75% per vehicle due to cleaner electricity.
- A net global emissions reduction of approximately 1.8 to 2 Gt CO2 equivalent annually from electrified road transport compared to internal combustion vehicles.
- Regional policies like California’s mandate driving near-elimination of new gasoline vehicle sales, cutting hundreds of millions of metric tons of emissions cumulatively by 2040.
Overall, EVs are expected to be a cornerstone in global and regional strategies to reduce transport sector emissions significantly by 2035, contingent on continued grid decarbonization and supportive policies.
Original article by NenPower, If reposted, please credit the source: https://nenpower.com/blog/what-are-the-projected-emissions-reductions-for-evs-by-2035/
