Current Trends and Projections
- Price Declines:
- Short-Term: Lithium-ion battery pack prices have already dropped below the $100 per kWh mark in some regions, particularly in Greater China. BloombergNEF has predicted that battery prices would fall below $100 per kWh by 2024-2025.
- Long-Term: Despite historical declines, the pace of price reduction is expected to moderate. Supply chain issues and rising raw material costs slowed the decline in 2023, but manufacturers are working to offset these costs through efficiency and scale.
- Technological Advancements and Market Growth:
- Beyond Li-ion: Research and development in solid-state and lithium-metal batteries are expected to improve energy density and performance, which could influence long-term cost trends.
- Market Expansion: The global lithium-ion battery market is projected to grow significantly, with the cell market alone expected to exceed $400 billion by 2035. This growth is driven by increasing demand for electric vehicles and energy storage applications.
- Regional Price Variations:
- LFP vs. NCM811: The cost of Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) battery packs in Greater China is already below the $100/kWh mark, while Nickel Cobalt Manganese (NCM811) packs remain closer to $103/kWh in the same region. The price difference between LFP cells in Greater China and Europe is expected to narrow over time.
- Raw Material Costs:
- While raw material prices may rise in the long term, manufacturing efficiency gains are expected to counteract some of these increases, potentially leading to a stable or slowly declining price trend.
Overall, while lithium-ion battery prices are projected to continue declining, the rate of decline will likely slow as manufacturing efficiencies offset rising raw material costs. Technological advancements could further impact cost trends in the decade ahead.
Original article by NenPower, If reposted, please credit the source: https://nenpower.com/blog/what-are-the-projected-cost-trends-for-lithium-ion-batteries-in-the-next-decade/
