U.S. Solar Policy Risks Rise as Southeast Asia’s Anti-Dumping Ruling is Announced

On April 21, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the final antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) rates for crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells and modules imported from four Southeast Asian countries: Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Additionally, the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) will determine by June 2025 whether the products from these countries have harmed the domestic industry. If they find in favor of the domestic industry, the double-duty tariffs will take effect; if not, the tariffs will be rescinded. However, based on previous U.S. investigations into solar products from various countries, the likelihood of a negative ruling from the USITC is low, and it is expected that the double-duty tariffs will be implemented smoothly.

When comparing the preliminary and final duty rates for major manufacturers from these four countries, it is evident that, aside from a slight reduction for Q-CELLS in Malaysia, the final rates for the other manufacturers have significantly increased. Without considering other tariffs imposed by the U.S., only Malaysia retains a minor opportunity for exports to the U.S., while Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam have completely lost their economic viability in this market.

A summary of the tariffs for major photovoltaic cell and module manufacturing countries exporting to the U.S. indicates that, following the final double-duty ruling, along with the 201 tariff and a 10% equivalent tariff rate, products from Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand have essentially lost their export potential to the U.S. Although Malaysia has experienced an increase in most final duty rates, given the ongoing battery supply gap in the U.S., some manufacturers may continue to export despite the tariffs.

In India and Turkey, local policies requiring the procurement of domestic batteries and a relatively limited production capacity mean that the batteries produced there cannot fully supply the U.S. market. Considering these factors, Indonesia and Laos, with their lower combined tariff rates and sufficient battery production capacity, are likely to remain major suppliers of photovoltaic cells to the U.S. in the short term, provided there are no significant changes in policy.

According to InfoLink’s forecast, the demand in the U.S. for 2025 is projected to be 42 GWdc. Assuming overall demand remains unchanged and the import prices from the four affected countries do not significantly decrease to offset the various tariffs, the U.S. is expected to face a battery supply shortage in 2025. Conversely, the imposition of equivalent tariffs in early April has raised local raw material import and project costs, combined with increased uncertainties surrounding photovoltaic policies like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which may further weaken market demand in the second quarter of 2025. However, since the impacts of the double-duty and equivalent tariffs have not yet fully materialized, InfoLink will continue to monitor policy and supply chain changes, with the possibility of adjusting forecasts for U.S. photovoltaic installations and demand in the future.

In the current environment, characterized by heightened policy risks and intensified market competition, it is essential for exporting manufacturers to actively monitor international political and economic dynamics, expand overseas channels, and strengthen brand value as key strategies for overcoming challenges. InfoLink will continue to track and update the effects of U.S. tariffs and can provide the following services:

• Plans and progress for building domestic supply chains in the U.S.
• Timely analysis of U.S. policy updates
• Identifying alternative markets – a global overview of the photovoltaic market

We invite you to contact us for customized consulting services to help you find new opportunities amidst the risks.