Reflecting on the evolution of energy development in China, we can identify significant milestones that shape its future. As we enter 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the document titled “Notice on Deepening the Market-Oriented Reform of Renewable Energy Grid Pricing to Promote High-Quality Development of Renewable Energy” (NDRC Price [2025] No. 136), which pushes renewable energy into the market and initiates a profound transformation of the entire energy landscape.
The implementation of this document has led to short-term challenges but long-term benefits, presenting new opportunities. The 136 document represents a complete overhaul for the renewable energy industry, causing initial market panic. However, at the “2025 North China Region Advanced Technology Seminar for the New Energy Industry” organized by TüV Rheinland in conjunction with the Shandong Energy Storage Society and the Shandong Quality Inspection Institute, Shen Wenzhong, Director of the Solar Energy Research Institute at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, stated that the 136 document serves as a crucible for the industry. He pointed out that past disruptions, such as the “double anti” measures and the “531” policy, often led to new phases of rapid growth.
Li Weichun, Vice President of Global Power Electronics Services and Vice President of Solar and Commercial Products at TüV Rheinland Greater China, echoed this sentiment. He noted that in countries with high renewable energy penetration, a highly market-driven operation has been maintained. The timing of the 136 document’s release is perfect, as it serves as a means of shifting from policy guidance to market-driven dynamics, aiming to spur market participation.
According to the latest data from the National Energy Administration, in the first quarter of 2025, China saw an addition of 74.33 million kilowatts of installed wind and solar power capacity, bringing the cumulative installed capacity to 1.482 billion kilowatts, which for the first time surpassed that of thermal power. As wind and solar installations continue to grow rapidly, it is expected that they will consistently outpace thermal power installations in the future.
Li Weichun believes that the policy changes will yield long-term benefits, diversifying application scenarios and technologies. Notably, the increasingly prominent concept of virtual power plants, which aggregate distributed resources and respond swiftly to regulatory adjustments, is seen as a crucial innovation to enhance supply reliability. The NDRC and the National Energy Administration’s recently released document (NDRC Energy [2025] No. 357) indicates that by 2027, the national virtual power plant regulation capacity will exceed 20 million kilowatts, and by 2030, it will reach over 50 million kilowatts.
Regarding the resurgence of interest in virtual power plants, TüV Rheinland Greater China President Xia Bo noted that they will effectively address some of the challenges associated with the absorption of renewable energy. Additionally, emerging industries will create more opportunities for new products, consequently opening up new markets for businesses. Shen Wenzhong likened virtual power plants to “Didi,” a mobile travel platform, highlighting how market-driven flexible configurations can lead to significant reductions in electricity prices.
Besides virtual power plants, Li Weichun emphasized that the deepening marketization resulting from the 136 document presents new possibilities on both the supply and demand sides, offering superior solutions and opportunities for applications such as energy storage and smart microgrids. For instance, while the 136 document emphasizes that energy storage should not be mandated, capturing higher electricity prices for renewable energy requires the integration of energy storage. This means that energy storage will return to its commercial essence, earning revenue through value creation.
As the energy sector shifts from policy-driven approaches to market-driven mechanisms, what transformations will occur? According to Li Weichun, the most evident change will be the continuous emergence of multi-energy complementary models. Regardless of the combination method, project profitability will ultimately dictate the technology, products, and solutions selected. In the solar industry, whether it’s monocrystalline replacing polycrystalline or n-type technology supplanting p-type, the scaled development is based on cost-effectiveness. When TOPCon products were first introduced, they were slightly more expensive than PERC products, but their notable efficiency improvements led to market acceptance and industry growth. Currently, BC technology is undergoing a similar trajectory, with companies like Longi and Aiko leading the way in market recognition.
Shen Wenzhong predicts that “the market share of BC will reach about 5% in 2024 and perhaps 10% this year. In the future, BC technology will stand alongside TOPCon technology, although completely replacing TOPCon is unlikely as it continues to evolve and remains widespread.” Under market conditions, the competition among companies regarding technological pathways has intensified, while third-party organizations maintain a neutral stance toward different technologies. Xia Bo remarked that as a third-party institution, they prefer to see all technological routes flourish. They act as referees, ensuring that companies compete on equal footing by developing comprehensive testing methods and standards, accurately reflecting product metrics such as performance and safety, allowing the most exceptional technologies to emerge through a “horse racing mechanism” that lets the market determine the direction of technological development.
Li Weichun emphasized that under market mechanisms, companies must adopt systematic thinking. “In the past, we focused on the ‘source’ first, but we should shift our mindset to prioritize ‘demand’. In the future energy system, ‘demand’ will be the key factor. From a demand perspective, companies need to think systematically while clarifying the profitability on the demand side. In this context, whether it involves hydrogen production or multi-energy complementary models, any demand should be considered. For example, in the future, we might see zero-cost solar power. What can we do with the electricity generated from zero-cost solar? If there is no heating demand locally, it could be used for electrolysis to produce hydrogen.”
The introduction of the 136 document undoubtedly brings profound changes to the energy industry, with new development opportunities emerging in virtual power plants, energy storage, and solar hydrogen production. At the same time, companies are faced with new challenges. Experts agree that businesses should uphold long-term thinking and avoid overly pursuing short-term gains. Despite the short-term pains, the long-term prospects for industry development remain bright. Companies that persist in long-term investments stand to benefit from industry growth. As a well-established company with 153 years of history, TüV Rheinland will leverage its role as a third-party institution to supervise and guide the industry, ensuring healthy and sustainable development.
Original article by NenPower, If reposted, please credit the source: https://nenpower.com/blog/transforming-chinas-energy-landscape-insights-from-document-136-on-renewable-energy-market-reform/
