Toyota’s Akio Toyoda Raises Concerns Over Increased Carbon Emissions from Electric Vehicle Production

Toyota’s Akio Toyoda Questions Electric Vehicle Production and Carbon Emissions

In a recent interview, Akio Toyoda, President of Toyota, expressed a controversial viewpoint: producing too many electric vehicles (EVs) could actually lead to increased carbon emissions. He backed his claims with data, stating that Toyota has sold approximately 27 million hybrid vehicles, which have resulted in carbon reductions equivalent to 9 million electric vehicles. He further argued that if Toyota were to produce 9 million electric vehicles in Japan, it could paradoxically increase carbon emissions.

This assertion raises eyebrows, especially since Toyota’s luxury brand Lexus recently invested 14.6 billion yuan to establish a factory in Shanghai to produce 100,000 electric Lexuses. Additionally, GAC Toyota has launched a fully electric model targeting new market entrants, the Platinum Zhi 3X. On one hand, Toyota is investing heavily in electric vehicle production, while on the other, it continues to promote hybrids and internal combustion engines.

At the core of Toyoda’s argument are two critical factors: the cleanliness of electricity production and geographical boundaries.

1. Tailoring Electric Vehicle Strategy to Local Conditions

As the leader of the world’s largest automaker, Toyoda’s views, while seemingly unconventional, are far from arbitrary. They are predicated on the premise that these observations apply specifically within Japan. Following the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Japan significantly reduced its reliance on nuclear power, with the percentage of nuclear energy plummeting from around 30% in 2010 to below 2% at its lowest point. Japan’s energy grid is relatively isolated, lacking cross-border connections similar to Europe’s interlinked power grid.

In response to the energy gap, Japan has increased its dependence on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for electricity generation. For instance, as of 3 PM on a typical day, 76% of Japan’s electricity supply comes from thermal power. Consequently, although electric vehicles have zero tailpipe emissions, if their charging electricity comes predominantly from coal, the overall carbon emissions throughout their lifecycle do not present a clear advantage. Toyoda likens this to trying to save energy but ending up with a more power-hungry light bulb.

Toyoda calculated that, given Japan’s current energy structure, producing 27 million hybrid vehicles results in lower carbon emissions than directly manufacturing 9 million electric vehicles. Supporting data from U.S. and European markets regarding lifecycle carbon footprints backs his claims. For example, a report from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency shows that in Virginia, where coal accounts for over 60% of power generation, the lifetime carbon emissions of a hybrid Camry are indeed lower than those of comparable electric vehicles. Conversely, in Norway, with ample hydroelectric power, the situation flips.

According to a 2023 Wall Street Journal report comparing the Tesla Model 3 and Toyota RAV4, electric vehicles only begin to have lower overall emissions than gasoline cars after they have been driven for 20,000 kilometers. A Volvo report asserts that under wind power conditions, the lifecycle carbon emissions of the pure electric XC40 Recharge are just 27 tons, while the gasoline version emits up to 58 tons. This underscores that the environmental benefits of electric vehicles are directly tied to the cleanliness of the local power grid.

However, it is essential to note that even in regions reliant on coal power, electric vehicles may still be more environmentally friendly than gasoline cars. A team from Harbin Institute of Technology found that in China, where coal accounts for 71% of power generation, a typical A-class electric vehicle emits only 0.952 tons of carbon for every 10,000 kilometers driven, compared to 1.626 tons for a similar gasoline vehicle, achieving nearly 42% reduction in carbon emissions. The International Energy Agency predicts a 40% improvement in global grid cleanliness by 2030.

In this context, it seems that Toyoda’s low-emission hybrid logic may not hold water indefinitely. As the power grid becomes cleaner with increased renewable energy contributions, the environmental advantages of pure electric vehicles will likely become more pronounced, leaving less room for Toyoda’s arguments.

2. “The Enemy is Not the Internal Combustion Engine”

It is well-known that Toyoda has consistently criticized the all-electric vehicle approach. He has previously labeled electric vehicles as being overrated, emphasizing that they require substantial investment and produce greater carbon emissions. In 2022, he described industry professionals as the “silent majority,” expressing concern about whether electric vehicles could truly be the sole solution despite the prevailing belief that they represent the future.

In 2023, Toyoda reiterated his skepticism regarding electric vehicles, pointing to slowing sales at Toyota as validation for his resistance to electric cars. He predicted that pure electric vehicles would capture no more than 30% of the market share, while hybrids, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and gasoline cars would dominate the remaining market. His comments even drew criticism from Elon Musk.

Recently, Toyoda raised concerns from an employment perspective, stating that a complete transition to electric vehicles could result in 5.5 million job losses among technicians involved in engine manufacturing. He argued that this shift would not only affect Toyota but would ripple across the entire automotive supply chain, from parts suppliers to complete vehicle manufacturers.

While Toyota is not entirely against electric vehicles and has developed models like the bZ series, their market performance lags significantly behind Toyota’s hybrid offerings. Toyota’s multifaceted energy strategy encompasses hybrids, plug-in hybrids, hydrogen fuel cells, electric vehicles, and vehicles that run on synthetic fuels. By promoting a diverse energy strategy, Toyota aims to preserve its interests from the internal combustion engine era while not missing out on new opportunities.

In conclusion, Toyota prefers to maintain multiple possibilities rather than committing to a singular path. Recognizing the diversity in energy structures and market conditions across regions, Toyota acknowledges that various solutions may be necessary. In the long run towards global carbon neutrality, there is no universally correct technological route, only continuous technological evolution. Ultimately, Toyota believes that “the enemy is carbon, not the internal combustion engine,” suggesting that their hybrid technology will remain viable for the foreseeable future.