How will the distributed photovoltaic market change in the future?
As of April 7, 2025, distributed photovoltaic power generation has become a crucial element in the energy transition. By the end of 2024, China is expected to have a cumulative installed capacity of 370 GW for distributed photovoltaic systems, which is an increase of 121 GW from 2013, representing 42% of the total installed capacity.
Distributed photovoltaic power generation has already established itself as a significant contributor to the energy landscape. By the end of 2024, the new installed capacity for distributed photovoltaic systems is projected to reach 120 GW, accounting for 43% of that year’s new installations. The total capacity for distributed photovoltaic power generation at that time is expected to be 346.2 GW, which will comprise 41% of the overall photovoltaic power generation capacity.
As the scale of distributed photovoltaic systems continues to grow, the industry is also experiencing transformative changes. The “Guidelines for the Reform of the Electricity Market” and the “Regulations on the Development of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation” are expected to lead to significant improvements in the electricity market for distributed systems, ushering in a new phase of development.
The market is shifting toward a model where distributed renewable energy generation will play a pivotal role. In the coming years, it is anticipated that the renewable energy sector will become the dominant source of electricity, necessitating solutions to address issues related to variability, intermittency, and predictability, while enhancing grid stability and reliability.
Experts believe that the introduction of new policies will promote the construction of distributed renewable energy facilities. The current electricity market must adapt to these changes, ensuring that the development of renewable energy is facilitated effectively.
In terms of application scenarios, there are primarily two types: centralized large-scale power stations and distributed microgrid systems. The focus will be on developing flexible resources represented by energy storage systems. These flexible resources will be essential for integrating renewable energy into the grid and addressing the challenges posed by the existing energy supply structure.
Overall, the outlook for distributed photovoltaic power generation remains optimistic. The industry must prioritize technological advancements and regulatory reforms to maximize the potential of this renewable energy source. As the market evolves, it will be crucial to ensure that the distributed photovoltaic sector adapts to the changing energy landscape while meeting the increasing demand for sustainable electricity solutions.
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