The Future of Leading Solar Companies in 2025: Shipment Goals, Market Predictions, and Strategic Adjustments

2025 Outlook for the Top Five Photovoltaic Leaders: Shipment Goals, Market Predictions, and Strategic Adjustments

As the annual reports for 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 from A-share listed companies are released, the challenges faced by the photovoltaic industry become evident. In 2024, the industry is expected to experience substantial losses. Surprisingly, despite a surge in prices for silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules driven by the “430” and “531” rush, the financial reports for the first quarter of 2025 still reflect significant losses. According to data from Huaxia Energy Network and Huaxia Photovoltaics, the top five photovoltaic leaders collectively reported a loss of 8.377 billion yuan in the first quarter, with each company facing net losses exceeding 1.3 billion yuan. Among them, Tongwei Co., Ltd. (SH:600438) suffered the most, with a net loss of 2.593 billion yuan, while Trina Solar (SH:688599) reported the smallest loss of 1.32 billion yuan.

Looking ahead to 2025, how will the photovoltaic industry evolve? How are companies adjusting their operations? Huaxia Energy Network and Huaxia Photovoltaics (public account hxgf3060) have compiled the business plans and market forecasts of the top five photovoltaic leaders for industry reference.

Market Predictions: Where is the Growth?

The leaders share a consensus regarding the market trends for 2025: there will be slight growth in global photovoltaic installations. Longi Green Energy (SH:601012) forecasts that the market will enter a phase of moderate growth from 2025 to 2026. Due to a significant increase in 2024, various uncertainties are anticipated in 2025, making it likely to remain stable or experience slight growth. JA Solar Technology (SZ:002459) and Trina Solar also expect positive growth in the Chinese market in 2025. JA Solar predicts global installation to be between 550GW and 600GW, with domestic demand accounting for about 50% of the total. “We will need to observe the policies implemented by various provinces after May, but it is possible that demand may contract in certain months; however, the overall trend should remain relatively stable,” they stated.

Regarding the long-term outlook, JinkoSolar (SH:688223) believes that due to AI-driven and green energy demands, the long-term requirements for photovoltaic technology will remain strong. They also noted that supply-side reforms are fostering orderly industry development, while some cross-industry photovoltaic companies are gradually exiting the competitive market. “We anticipate the industry will transition from losses to a break-even point and eventually to profitability. Companies with scale advantages, brand premiums, leading technology, and cost control will be more competitive,” JinkoSolar emphasized.

Longi Green Energy, focusing on Bifacial Cells (BC), also pointed out that the expected premium for BC products in the centralized market is about 15%. However, due to product diversity in the distributed market, providing a specific premium level remains challenging. “In 2025, China, Europe, and the United States will continue to be the primary markets for photovoltaic growth, though the growth rate will gradually slow. Emerging markets in the Middle East, India, and Southeast Asia will maintain rapid growth,” they reported. Both JA Solar and Trina Solar are optimistic about these emerging markets. JA Solar stated that the increasing rigidity in power demand and urgent energy transitions in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East are driving rapid growth in photovoltaic installations and rising market shares.

Trina Solar indicated that emerging markets are expected to grow quickly, with anticipated growth rates exceeding 30% in the Middle East and double-digit growth in the Asia-Pacific region. As for the U.S. market, Trina noted, “It remains to be seen how tax rates will impact the market.” Given these assessments, the photovoltaic shipment targets announced by the leaders for 2025 are largely in line with those of 2024. The official shipment targets for modules (or module cells) disclosed by JinkoSolar, Longi Green Energy, Trina Solar, and JA Solar are 85-100GW, 80-90GW, 70-75GW, and 75-85GW, respectively. In comparison, the shipment volumes for these four companies in 2024 were 92.9GW, 82.32GW, 70GW, and 79.447GW.

Additionally, reports indicate that Tongwei Co., Ltd. has set a shipment target of 45-50GW for 2025, which is roughly in line with the 45.71GW of modules shipped in 2024.

Strategic Adjustments: Domestic Upgrades and Focus on Profits Abroad

In terms of operational goals for this year, companies are prioritizing profit levels over market share. For instance, Trina Solar has confirmed its sales strategy for 2025 to maintain a leading position in all major markets without excessively pursuing absolute market share, focusing instead on balancing volume and profitability. In light of the widespread losses in the industry, how do these leaders plan to improve profit levels? Key strategies include domestic capacity upgrades and cost reductions, as well as actively targeting high-profit markets overseas.

Longi Green Energy emphasized that in today’s complex market environment, photovoltaic development is no longer solely dependent on the price or efficiency of modules. The company is placing greater importance on understanding customer needs and the recognized value of products, aiming to create higher-margin products. On April 10, Longi Green Energy launched its Hi-MO9 product tailored for ground power station markets. Regarding domestic capacity, Longi is accelerating BC capacity upgrades. They disclosed that they already have 15GW of second-generation BC production capacity, expected to increase to 35GW by the end of June and 50GW by the end of the year. They also anticipate a rapid increase in the proportion of BC products produced, expecting that by the second half of this year, BC products will make up about 50% of their battery production.

Trina Solar continues to advance the TOPCon technology path while adhering to a primary and two auxiliary technology approach (with TOPCon as the mainstream, and BC and HJT as auxiliary technologies). The company stated that TOPCon 2.0 is set to begin production in June 2025, and they already possess the technical capability for TOPCon 3.0, which will be launched as market demand permits. Trina Solar also mentioned that TBC has demonstrated good efficiency, and HJT has reached a level of industrialization. The company plans to establish a pilot production line for crystalline silicon perovskite tandem cells this year.

JinkoSolar plans to complete over 40% of its capacity upgrades this year and will continue to upgrade TOPCon technology through innovations such as metallization and front-side passivation, maintaining its industry-leading position. They are also advancing integrated projects like the Shanxi base, leveraging digital technology and AI to enhance management efficiency and reduce costs. JA Solar stated that this year, the focus of their battery technology will remain on enhancing TOPCon efficiency, but they will also consider investing in some BC capacity as the competitiveness of BC in niche markets becomes clearer. Furthermore, JA Solar is striving to improve product conversion efficiency across silicon wafers, cells, and modules and is optimizing materials and new processes to reduce costs.

All leaders are actively pursuing high-profit overseas markets. Trina Solar stated that it aims to maintain a larger market share in regions with relatively high profits, such as Europe and Australia. JA Solar is seeking out new emerging markets with power scarcity, including the Middle East and Africa. They disclosed that they are accelerating the construction of a 6GW efficient solar cell and 3GW high-power solar module project in Oman, which is expected to be operational by the first quarter of next year. JinkoSolar is also collaborating on technology output to penetrate overseas markets. They noted that if their partnership with Saudi PIF is successful, it would be rapidly replicated in other regions. Companies are closely monitoring policy changes in the U.S. market as well. Trina Solar’s TOPCon cell module factory in Indonesia currently has an annual capacity of 1GW, while Longi Green Energy produces photovoltaic cells in Malaysia for export to U.S. joint ventures for module production. According to both companies, Indonesia is not affected by the recent “double anti” measures from four Southeast Asian countries, and its newly added “reciprocal tax rates” are relatively low; Malaysia also enjoys lower tax rates compared to the four Southeast Asian countries, providing a competitive edge for exports to the U.S. market. Longi Green Energy stated that they will continue to rely on their established supply chain to steadily advance their business in the U.S. market.

A New Growth Curve: Storage Takes on Greater Responsibilities

Notably, both Trina Solar and JinkoSolar are striving to establish secondary, and even tertiary, growth curves. In their 2024 report, JinkoSolar did not separately list storage as a business segment, but in practice, it has emerged as a significant growth area. Public information indicates that in 2024, JinkoSolar’s storage system production line steadily commenced operations, with an increased proportion of self-developed key components, significantly enhancing cost control. Reports suggest that JinkoSolar achieved storage system shipments exceeding 1GWh in 2024, marking substantial year-on-year growth. From the first quarter of 2024 to date, JinkoSolar has consistently ranked among the Tier 1 manufacturers in the storage industry according to BNEF. They set a shipment target of 6GWh for storage products in 2025 and expressed confidence in meeting their annual shipment goals, as the integration of solar and storage continues to be a strategic focus.

Trina Solar is also diligently working on multiple profitability growth points. The company has four main business segments: photovoltaics, storage, system solutions, and digital energy services. While the photovoltaic segment continues to navigate challenging conditions, storage and other areas are expected to contribute significantly to Trina Solar’s performance growth in 2025. Huaxia Energy Network noted that Trina Solar has repeatedly emphasized that “storage is one of our key growth areas.” The company aims to achieve over 100% growth in storage shipments and revenue in 2025 (targeting an annual shipment goal of 8-10GWh), particularly focusing on large customers and solar-storage integration clients in overseas markets. This plan is backed by results from 2024, where the storage business achieved 4.3GWh in shipments, generating 2.335 billion yuan in revenue and over 300 million yuan in gross profit. “Notably, from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, our shipment ratio in high-margin overseas regions like Europe is steadily increasing, along with improvements in our gross profit margins,” Trina Solar stated. They plan to expand their presence in the U.S. market and increase their storage business scale in Latin America and the Asia-Pacific regions. So far, they have secured over 5GWh in signed storage product orders, leading Trina Solar to anticipate “multiple growth in overseas shipments compared to 2024” in their storage business.

Interestingly, Trina Solar has set a challenging target for their third and fourth-ranked business segments, system solutions and digital energy services, aiming for a year-on-year growth rate of no less than 20% and for these segments to account for over 50% of overall revenue. Analyzing the performance of these two business areas in 2024 clarifies why such ambitious goals have been established. In 2024, system solutions and digital energy services generated revenues of 18.8 billion yuan and nearly 2 billion yuan, respectively, with gross margins of 18.4% and 55%, establishing them as two rising stars among the company’s four business segments. Trina Solar reported that “in 2024, the bracket, distributed systems, centralized power station, and new energy operations all achieved positive profit growth.”