Tesla’s Robotaxi Plan Scales Back: Initial Launch Limited to 20 Vehicles
Date: May 22, 2025
Tesla’s long-anticipated fully autonomous robotaxi service is approaching a pivotal moment. According to the company, this highly awaited service is set to officially launch next month. However, details recently disclosed by Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reveal a significant gap between the rollout scale and public expectations.
According to Jonas, who cited information from meetings with Tesla’s management, the initial robotaxi service will begin in Austin, Texas, but the fleet will consist of only 10 to 20 vehicles, far below the previously anticipated “large-scale commercial deployment.” The service will be restricted to public roads within a geofenced area and will operate on an “invite-only” basis, accessible only to selected users. Analysts suggest this restrictive approach may be a risk management strategy. “Tesla has made it clear that they ‘cannot afford to mess this up,'” Jonas noted in his report.
To ensure safety, all vehicles will be equipped with a remote monitoring team (tele-operators) who can take control of the vehicles if necessary. Although the company has repeatedly emphasized that the service will launch on time in June 2025, the exact date has not yet been finalized.
It is noteworthy that this pilot program continues from Tesla’s existing ride-hailing service for employees operating in Austin and San Francisco. In these two cities, users can currently request Tesla vehicles via an app, but each vehicle is accompanied by a human safety operator. The new service aims to replace in-car safety personnel with remote operations, achieving a true “driverless” experience.
The core technology supporting this service is Tesla’s proprietary “Ground Truth Machine” system, which continuously scans the road environment in Austin using lidar and radar sensors to create high-precision map data. This technological setup may lay the groundwork for future large-scale deployment.
Industry experts analyze Tesla’s cautious approach, suggesting that given the ongoing regulatory scrutiny and technical challenges surrounding autonomous driving technology, a limited pilot can help mitigate public concerns and potential liability risks. Data indicates that Tesla’s current internal testing in Austin and San Francisco has provided valuable operational experience, but this marks the first attempt to commercialize the complete removal of human supervisors.
In addition to the autonomous driving initiative, Jonas also revealed updates on Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus. The company plans to allow investors to visit the Optimus production line in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a target price of $20,000 for mass production. While this price is significantly higher than that of typical consumer-grade robots, analysts believe there is still potential for initial market viability among high-net-worth individuals.
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