Tesla Adjusts Timeline for Texas Megapack Production Start

Adjusting Tesla Texas Megapack Production Start Estimate

Recent insights from a local resident, combined with public meeting transcripts and reports, suggest a revised timeline for the first Megapack production at Tesla’s new factory in Texas. Based on this analysis, the estimated start date for production has been adjusted to a 9-month timeline, with a possibility of it extending to 8-10 months.

The facility spans 1.77 million square feet, with 1.03 million square feet undergoing conversion for the Megapack operations. Additional buildings are also being constructed, and Tesla may consider leasing or purchasing more space as needed. A significant bottleneck in this process is the required power upgrades, both inside the facility and in the surrounding area.

It’s important to note that the City of Katy is not involved in this project. The local governing bodies participating in this endeavor are the County of Waller and the City of Brookshire. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the State of Texas will also play crucial roles in oversight.

During the retrofit process, Loyd Cockerham, a contact of mine, observed a 20,000-pound piece of machinery being dropped onto the warehouse floor from a height of approximately five feet. Remarkably, the floor sustained only minor nicks, indicating its strength and durability. Currently, Mr. Cockerham is working at 111 Empire.

As part of the retrofit, there are 206 overhead doors that must be removed and their openings sealed. While Tesla has access to top-tier construction teams, this remains a substantial task.

Timeline for Completion

The warehouse currently contains around 10,000 completed batteries that need to be cleared before any retrofitting can commence. Additionally, nearly 44 million battery cells on pallets must be relocated. Approximately 40,000 square feet of automotive parts are also stored in the building. To complicate matters, the staff responsible for loading and unloading trucks has been minimized, which impacts the pace of clearing operations.

Based on my estimates, the building may not be completely emptied until mid to late June. The facility continues to receive freight shipments, hindering efforts to clear all products. Unless there is a significant acceleration in unloading, the timeline for pre-production is likely to shift to late December 2025 to February 2026.

The main project timeline for converting the warehouse at 111 Empire Boulevard in Brookshire, Texas, into Tesla’s third Megapack factory is projected at around 6 months. However, potential delays related to roof work and clearing the building could extend this by an additional 3 months.

Key Challenges and Mitigation Strategies

1. Roof Repairs and Warehouse Clearing: The removal of the 206 doors and the clearing of the warehouse are critical tasks.

2. Power Delays: This represents the most significant hurdle. Tesla could address this by leasing temporary generators, similar to strategies used at Giga Texas, or by negotiating priority service with CenterPoint, leveraging the project’s economic impact of 1,500 jobs.

3. Supply Chain Issues: While unlikely due to Tesla’s robust U.S. network, global shipping delays could cause installation setbacks of 1-2 months.

4. Regulatory Surprises: The risk is low in Texas, but any unexpected environmental concerns could add 1-2 months. Fortunately, Waller County’s proactive approach helps mitigate this risk.

Conclusion

The conversion of the 111 Empire Boulevard site into a Megapack factory is expected to take 5-6 months starting from March 8, 2025, with trial production anticipated between August and September 2025. However, accounting for potential delays related to roof work and warehouse clearing, a total timeline of 8-10 months is more realistic. Key factors to monitor include clearing the warehouse, ensuring utility power readiness, and Tesla’s ability to manage potential delays effectively. Most regulatory hurdles have been addressed, with only routine permits left, which are likely to be processed concurrently with construction.