The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that solar power, energy storage, and wind generation will collectively account for 93% of the new electricity capacity deployments in the United States in 2025. Specifically, the EIA projects the deployment of 32.5 GW of solar capacity, 18.2 GW of energy storage, and 7.7 GW of wind generation this year, contributing to an anticipated total capacity increase of 63 GW, which would be a record for the nation.
According to the EIA’s latest report, the Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory (EIA-860M), the total capacity additions for 2025 are expected to reach approximately 63 GW, marking the highest annual deployment volume to date. In comparison, 48.6 GW of utility-scale capacity was deployed in 2024, which was the largest total since 2002, when about 60 GW was connected to the grid. Of the new capacity in 2025, solar power is predicted to represent 51.5%.
Texas is set to lead the way with 11.6 GW of new solar installations, making up nearly 36% of all additions. California follows with 2.9 GW, while Indiana, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, and New York are each expected to deploy over 1 GW of capacity.
Battery storage is also predicted to see significant growth, with an addition of 18.2 GW anticipated. Although the report does not specify storage durations, California and Texas, the two largest battery markets, typically utilize systems with four-hour and two-and-a-half-hour storage capacities, respectively.
In Texas, 6.7 GW of new storage is expected, followed by California with 4.3 GW and Arizona with 3.6 GW. These three states alone will account for more than 80% of all new battery storage capacity. The largest battery projects planned for 2025 will each have an output capacity of 500 MW. One will be in Kern County, California, co-located with a 500 MW solar plant, which is the largest planned for the year. The second project will be in Wharton, Texas, paired with a 451.6 MW solar facility, the second-largest solar plant planned for 2025.
The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook Data Browser also predicts that small-scale solar installations (including residential, commercial, and industrial) will contribute an additional 7 GW of capacity, bringing total distributed solar deployment to 60.6 GW by the end of 2025. When combined with the 32.5 GW ac (or 42 GW dc) of utility-scale capacity, total solar module deployments for the year could approach 50 GW.
Initially, the EIA had projected that the U.S. would deploy over 50 GW of solar capacity in 2024, with subsequent estimates remaining stable in the agency’s November capacity report. However, recent data suggests that the EIA has revised its 2024 capacity estimate downward by approximately 7 GW. This adjustment coincides with a forecasted surge in deployments for January 2025. Meanwhile, BloombergNEF estimated that U.S. solar deployments in 2024 reached nearly 50 GW.
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