Roadmap to Diversifying South Africa’s Energy Mix for a Sustainable Future

Roadmap for Diversifying South Africa’s Energy Mix

South Africa’s energy transition demands careful consideration of realistic timelines and socioeconomic factors to achieve a sustainable balance within the country’s context. The challenge lies in addressing the energy security crisis while fulfilling sustainability requirements and supporting socioeconomic development and industrialization.

A white paper from management consultancy Kearney outlines the need for South Africa to establish a diversified energy mix. According to Kearney partner Prashaen Reddy, who co-authored the paper titled Energy Security and Sustainability: Striking the South African Balance, responsible utilization of regional resources such as coal and gas is essential, alongside the scaling up of cleaner energy sources to reduce fossil fuel dependency. This must be approached in phases, with realistic timelines.

The authors of the paper are participating in the Africa Energy Indaba, occurring in Cape Town from March 4 to 6. Reddy emphasizes that diversifying the energy mix presents various challenges, as different clean technologies must overcome specific obstacles. “This will require a gradual approach with realistic timelines,” he states. Despite these challenges, multiple electricity sources present promising opportunities to enhance energy security while fostering sustainability, industrialization, and socioeconomic advancement. These opportunities can be unlocked through pragmatic, integrated planning.

The roadmap for establishing a diversified energy mix adopts a blended strategy, balancing the immediate need for energy security with long-term sustainability. Aligned with South Africa’s draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2023, Kearney’s roadmap proposes a two-phase approach that incorporates lessons learned from international examples while considering South Africa’s unique context.

Phase 1: Set to Grow

Phase 1 focuses on building upon the existing energy landscape. It aims to ensure the efficient operation of current fossil fuel generation and grid infrastructure to support immediate energy security needs while also preparing for a low-carbon future by introducing additional gas and renewable infrastructure. The current coal fleet can provide a stable baseload, utilizing South Africa’s coal resources for up to 45 more years, with planned decommissioning dates ranging from 2025 to 2069, provided strong maintenance practices are established and upheld.

“As the backbone of South Africa’s current energy mix, this approach is crucial to meet immediate energy demands until new generation sources become available. However, responsible coal usage and the implementation of carbon capture technologies where possible remain essential,” Reddy notes.

In addition to generation, aging transmission infrastructure poses a significant electricity challenge in South Africa. Upgrading and maintaining transmission and distribution networks is vital for energy security, ensuring that energy reaches demand centers. Kearney principal Frances Phillips, another co-author of the paper, highlights the importance of maintaining existing infrastructure and replacing outdated systems with resilient, forward-looking solutions to ensure stable energy access.

“Securing regional gas supply agreements is crucial to unlocking untapped gas reserves in Southern Africa. Upstream investments, along with investments in transmission and distribution networks, are essential for enabling gas-to-power initiatives, necessitating coordination between industry and government,” she explains.

In the short term, completing current wind and solar projects will add capacity to the grid through the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme and distributed installations. “This must be managed within the existing grid’s capacity to handle associated intermittencies. Additionally, this phase is crucial for preparing for future renewable scaling, which requires planning for grid modernization and additional pumped storage and battery solutions—both of which demand significant investment and lengthy timelines of up to 10 years,” Reddy adds.

Moreover, preparations for future nuclear capacity expansion must commence in this phase, including developing a long-term strategy for nuclear generation that considers both conventional and small modular reactors, securing funding, and obtaining necessary regulatory approvals. As aging coal-fired power stations reach the end of their operational lives, they can be repurposed to produce cleaner energy, preserving substantial portions of existing generation capacity while transitioning to a cleaner energy framework. This strategy also helps safeguard existing jobs, supporting a just transition.

Phase 2: Scale Up

In Phase 2, following the groundwork for grid modernization laid in Phase 1, the focus shifts to rapidly scaling up renewables and clean energy solutions. “This involves central installations, complemented by energy storage solutions to ensure a stable electricity supply, as well as increasing the number of distributed renewable energy resources to extend energy access to unconnected rural populations,” Reddy explains.

The decentralized approach not only facilitates energy access for remote and underserved communities but also reduces reliance on long-distance transmission, potentially alleviating congestion and minimizing energy losses. Additionally, it creates favorable opportunities for deploying locally sourced renewable energy.

Emerging technologies, such as green hydrogen, are expected to play an increasingly significant role in South Africa’s future energy mix. Hydrogen serves both as an energy source and a carrier, enhancing energy security. Discussions at the Africa Energy Indaba 2025 this week are exploring Africa’s path to energy security. Reddy remarks, “Gas has the potential to be a key enabler of a just energy transition, addressing Africa’s immediate energy needs while promoting long-term sustainability.”

“Through collaboration and innovation, Africa can harness its energy potential to stimulate economic growth and pave the way for a prosperous and sustainable future,” Reddy concludes.

Kearney’s Prashaen Reddy, Igor Hulak, and Frances Phillips are sharing their insights on the African energy sector at the Africa Energy Indaba at the CTICC in Cape Town from March 4 to 6, 2025.

For more information, you can read the Kearney white paper, Energy Security and Sustainability: Striking the South African Balance, available at African Mining.