The new national standards for electric vehicle batteries are set to be implemented on July 1, 2026. These standards, known as “GB38031-2025,” will establish strict requirements for battery safety, including the stipulations of “no fire or explosion” as a mandatory criterion. This regulation is being referred to as the “most stringent” battery safety standard to date and has sparked widespread discussions about the impact on electric vehicle pricing.
In April 2025, the standards will move towards stricter requirements, focusing on the technology benchmarks related to battery performance. Compared to the 2020 version, which required a “thermal runaway time of less than 5 minutes,” the new standards will require batteries to maintain thermal runaway conditions for no less than 2 minutes under specified test conditions, with a temperature limit set below 60°C. Additionally, new testing methods for the battery components, including quick cycling tests, will further enhance battery safety performance.
This means that automotive manufacturers must ensure that their vehicles are designed with multiple layers of safety features, from the battery materials and structural design to the systems that prevent any potential hazards. For example, the thermal runaway area must be kept under 5%, and compliance with the “battery-module-system” level safety regulations will be critical.
Moreover, the industry is preparing for a significant increase in battery costs. According to market forecasts, the cost of producing a battery system is expected to rise by 15% to 20% under the new standards. For instance, an electric vehicle equipped with a 60kWh battery may see production costs increase by approximately 1.5 million to 2 million CNY.
Regarding the industry dynamics, many automakers are already experiencing the effects of these regulatory changes. Vehicles that currently meet international standards (such as the thermal runaway time) are increasingly in demand, leading to potential price adjustments in the market.
Looking ahead, the market share of power battery systems is projected to reach around 40% by 2026, with ongoing debates about whether manufacturers can meet the new criteria without compromising on quality or safety. There are also concerns about whether automakers will be able to maintain competitive pricing while adhering to these stricter regulations.
In conclusion, the short-term pricing trends for electric vehicles are expected to be influenced heavily by the new safety standards, which will become a baseline for compliance in the industry. Over the long term, as these standards become entrenched, the focus will shift towards improving manufacturing processes and technological advancements to meet safety benchmarks while maintaining competitive production costs.
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