New National Standards for Battery Safety Set to Transform China’s Electric Vehicle Industry and Enhance Consumer Confidence

Wang Qian: The Introduction of the “Most Stringent” National Safety Standards for Power Batteries Ensures Safe Green Travel

On April 15, 2025, the mandatory national standard “Safety Requirements for Power Batteries Used in Electric Vehicles (GB 38031—2025)” was officially released. This marks a significant milestone in the development of China’s electric vehicle industry. It will have a profound impact on the industry and supply chains, accelerating technological innovation, optimizing market competition, and enhancing the industrial ecosystem. Ultimately, it aims to provide consumers with safer, greener, and smarter travel options, fostering high-quality development within China’s new energy vehicle sector and reinforcing its competitive edge globally.

1. The Popularization and Intelligence of New Energy Vehicles Demand Safety Standards

China’s new energy vehicle industry is experiencing unprecedented growth. In 2009, the country launched the “Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles” initiative, marking a new chapter in the industry. By 2018, annual production and sales surpassed one million vehicles, taking nearly a decade to achieve. This figure grew to over five million by 2022, with only about four years required. Additionally, by 2024, production is expected to exceed ten million vehicles for the first time, a leap achieved in just two years. According to the latest data from the Ministry of Public Security, by the end of 2024, the number of new energy vehicles in China reached 31.4 million, accounting for 8.9% of the total number of vehicles. In 2024 alone, 11.25 million new energy vehicles were registered, making up 41.83% of all new registrations, demonstrating rapid growth.

Simultaneously, the application of intelligent technology in the new energy vehicle sector is advancing quickly. Major automotive companies have begun integrating large language models and producing high-level intelligent driving systems. Breakthroughs in domestic high-performance chips, millimeter-wave radar, and central computing platforms are being made, with intelligent cabins and driving applications reaching international advanced levels. Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology indicates that in the first half of 2024, the penetration rate of new cars equipped with Level 2 or higher intelligent driving systems was 55.7%, with expectations to rise to 65% by 2025. However, the rapidly growing market and rapidly evolving technologies necessitate safer standards to ensure protection.

As the number of electric vehicles increases dramatically, safety concerns become more pronounced. Lithium-ion batteries are prone to thermal runaway in conditions of high temperature, overcharging, and collisions. Industry data shows that in the first quarter of 2023, an average of eight new energy vehicles caught fire daily (including spontaneous combustion). In 2024, over 290,000 new energy vehicles were recalled due to battery issues, accounting for 7% of total recalls for the year. Several incidents of well-known electric vehicle brands catching fire in accidents have raised public awareness of battery fire risks. Frequent thermal runaway incidents pose serious threats to public safety, undermining consumer confidence and hindering the healthy and sustainable development of the industry.

2. New Standards Establish a Safety Foundation for New Energy Vehicles

The new standards have elevated safety regulations to a level of “proactive defense to ensure safety.” In response to the identified issues, relevant authorities began the revision process in September 2021. The project was officially launched in December 2023, with the standards set to be enforced from July 1, 2026. This revision signifies a shift in China’s power battery safety regulation from “passive response” to “proactive defense,” establishing a global benchmark for technical safety.

The new standards include additional tests for battery bottom impact and safety assessments after fast charging cycles, reinforcing safety requirements related to thermal diffusion. The goal is to reduce the occurrence of spontaneous combustion accidents from the design stage, further protecting consumer safety.

The 2025 version encompasses seven individual tests and 17 battery pack or system tests, strengthening and adding numerous key technical requirements compared to the 2020 version. The new target is “no fire, no explosion.” The thermal diffusion requirement has been raised from “providing a thermal event alarm signal five minutes before fire or explosion” to “no fire, no explosion (alarm is still required), with smoke not harming occupants.” By simulating internal short circuits and strictly controlling smoke toxicity, the escape risks for passengers are significantly reduced. This change reflects a fundamental shift in safety philosophy from “securing escape time after an accident” to “preventing catastrophic outcomes from the design stage.”

New tests for bottom impact have been added. The battery pack must withstand impacts from a steel ball with a diameter of 30 mm and an energy of 150 joules without leakage, shell rupture, fire, or explosion, while also meeting insulation resistance requirements. New simulated tests for impacts on the battery bottom while driving under complex road conditions fill gaps in assessing the protective capabilities of the battery bottom, effectively enhancing the actual safety of electric vehicles.

Furthermore, a new safety test following fast charging cycles has been introduced. The battery must pass external short circuit tests after 300 fast charging cycles without catching fire or exploding, ensuring safety redundancies as fast charging technology becomes widespread. This test aims to evaluate the safety performance of batteries subjected to frequent fast charging.

3. New Standards Accelerate High-Quality Development of the New Energy Vehicle Industry

(a) Pressure on Battery Manufacturers to Optimize Costs

Battery manufacturers are under pressure to enhance research and development investments, optimizing battery materials and new technologies to cope with rising costs. The new standards will compel manufacturers to increase R&D spending, optimize core materials and structural designs, and improve thermal management system performance. However, to meet the new standards, companies will need to use high-performance raw materials and components, which will increase procurement costs. Introducing new production equipment and processes and strengthening quality control will also contribute to rising costs. This increase may compress profit margins, pushing companies to optimize supply chain management and boost production efficiency to mitigate cost pressures, or pass some of these costs onto downstream vehicle manufacturers.

The heightened industry entry threshold will reshape market competition. The new standards will raise entry barriers, leading to the elimination of companies that do not meet technological standards. Market resources will concentrate on more competitive enterprises, with leading companies likely to enhance their market share through their strong R&D capabilities, technology, funding, and branding. Smaller companies, facing limited resources and increased costs and difficulties in technological development, may face significant survival challenges, leading to potential market exit or mergers with larger firms.

New battery technologies such as solid-state batteries and hydrogen fuel cells will accelerate development. Solid-state batteries, utilizing solid electrolytes, offer higher energy density, better thermal stability, and safety, seen as critical technological directions for addressing battery safety issues. Numerous companies and research institutions are increasing investment in solid-state battery R&D, with some already achieving significant results, potentially leading to commercial breakthroughs in the coming years. Hydrogen fuel cells, offering zero emissions and quick refueling times, are expected to gradually expand their market share as technology advances and costs decrease. Innovations in battery materials and structures will accelerate. New cathode materials like high-nickel ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate, along with silicon-based anode materials, will continue to be optimized to enhance battery energy density and safety. Additionally, new electrolyte and separator materials, such as flame-retardant electrolytes and high-strength separators, will improve thermal stability and short-circuit resistance.

In terms of battery design, technologies like CTP (Cell to Pack), CTC (Cell to Chassis), and CTB (Cell to Body) will be further optimized to reduce the number of components in battery packs, enhancing system integration and spatial efficiency while improving safety and performance.

(b) Electric Vehicle Manufacturers to Focus on Energy Management Systems

Automakers will place greater emphasis on energy management systems, thermal management technologies, and safety performance improvements. They will implement stringent supplier admission and verification processes to ensure compliance throughout the supply chain. Manufacturers will prioritize compliance with the new standards when selecting and assessing battery suppliers, potentially deepening collaboration with battery suppliers to participate in early-stage R&D and design, optimizing battery system compatibility with vehicles to ensure safety and performance. Continuous monitoring and validation of products from existing suppliers will be necessary to meet new standard requirements. Additionally, they will need to manage the aftermarket by enhancing training for vehicle owners and after-sales services, addressing safety issues in battery systems promptly.

Smart battery management systems (BMS) will undergo accelerated upgrades. In the future, BMS will evolve towards greater intelligence and precision, utilizing advanced sensor technology, big data analysis, and artificial intelligence algorithms for real-time monitoring, precise forecasting, and intelligent control of battery status. For instance, BMS can dynamically adjust charging strategies based on battery usage and environmental conditions to avoid overcharging and over-discharging, providing timely alerts and protection in case of anomalies, thereby reducing the probability of thermal runaway incidents. Additionally, enhancing thermal management technology in new energy vehicles will not only improve energy efficiency but also play a crucial role in extending driving range and battery lifespan while effectively preventing thermal runaway.

Manufacturers will need to accelerate adjustments in product development and market strategies. They must upgrade existing models or redesign them to meet new standards or launch new models with differentiated competitive advantages in response to these regulations. Furthermore, companies should revise marketing strategies to emphasize product safety, boosting consumer confidence in electric vehicles.

(c) Testing and Certification Services Industry to Experience Growth

There will be a significant increase in testing demand. The new standards introduce additional testing requirements, such as bottom impact tests and safety assessments after fast charging cycles. Battery manufacturers and automakers will need extensive testing services to ensure compliance with the new standards, including safety performance testing for individual batteries, battery packs, and vehicles, which is expected to create substantial market opportunities for third-party testing institutions.

Service standards will also be upgraded. The new standards significantly enhance safety performance requirements for electric vehicles, necessitating corresponding upgrades in service standards and processes within the testing and certification industry. Testing institutions will need to establish stricter testing norms and quality control systems to ensure accurate and reliable test results.

4. New Standards Ensure Safe Travel

Consumer confidence is expected to rise. Under the new standards, the safety of electric vehicle batteries will significantly improve, helping to reduce accident rates and minimize safety risks associated with electric vehicle usage. The introduction of these standards also signals to consumers that the electric vehicle industry prioritizes safety, which will enhance consumer recognition of electric vehicle safety and rebuild confidence in the market.

The market size is likely to continue expanding. While rising production costs for power batteries may lead to increased electric vehicle prices, potentially impacting market demand in the short term, technological advancements and economies of scale are expected to lower costs in the long run. Furthermore, vehicles that comply with the new standards may enjoy premium discounts of 15% to 20%, reducing ownership costs. Additionally, lifetime warranty clauses for batteries may exclude “thermal runaway” exemptions, providing consumers with more comprehensive after-sales protection. As consumer recognition of electric vehicle safety increases, purchasing demand is expected to rise. Coupled with favorable policies supporting the dual carbon goals, the market for electric vehicles will likely continue to expand, with market share further increasing. With growing international demand for electric vehicles, China is expected to make significant breakthroughs in the global market.

The industry ecosystem will gradually improve. The implementation of the new standards will promote collaborative innovation and cooperation among upstream and downstream enterprises in the electric vehicle supply chain, enhancing the industrial ecosystem. In the future, battery manufacturers, vehicle manufacturers, component suppliers, testing and certification institutions, and research institutes will strengthen partnerships, forming tighter industrial alliances. Additionally, the after-sales service for electric vehicles and battery recycling industries will gradually improve, creating a more complete industrial ecosystem.