New Energy Vehicle Market Surges Past 50% Penetration: Addressing Battery Safety Concerns

The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) has surpassed 50%, raising concerns about battery safety. As we approach 2025, the focus of the power battery industry is shifting from capacity expansion and market acquisition to enhancing safety performance and managing costs. National policies are playing a significant role in this transition.

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the long-awaited mandatory national standard, “Safety Requirements for Power Storage Batteries for Electric Vehicles” (GB 38031—2025), which is referred to in the industry as the “strictest battery safety regulation ever.” This new standard mandates that power batteries must not catch fire or explode after experiencing thermal runaway due to internal short circuits, which has garnered considerable attention from the industry.

In this new context, compliance can serve as both a “restrictive spell” for corporate development and a “protective talisman” for enhancing competitiveness. Reports indicate that in recent days, many automotive and battery companies, including FAW Hongqi, Great Wall Motors, Li Auto, and Bestune, have publicly announced that their products meet the new standards and have passed the required tests. The introduction of the new safety standards is reshaping the industry’s rules of the game.

Ouyang Minggao, an academician at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and chairman of the Academic Committee of the Key Laboratory of Power and Energy Battery Safety under the State Administration for Market Regulation, emphasized that battery safety technology is a crucial breakthrough for the revolution in power battery technology and is vital for the sustainable development of electric vehicles. He noted that the release of the new standards is highly significant.

Dong Yang, president of the Power Semiconductor Branch of the China Automotive Chip Industry Innovation Strategic Alliance and the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, stated that the new standard raises the requirement for alarms 5 minutes before fire or explosion to a mandate that batteries must not catch fire or explode, thereby reducing the incidence of thermal runaway accidents from the product design stage.

According to research, battery manufacturers and automakers have made significant progress in areas such as intrinsic safety of battery cells, thermal insulation between cells, thermal control of battery packs, and optimizing battery pack structures, successfully applying these advancements in new products.

The rapid increase in the number of new energy vehicles has led to safety anxieties. As per statistics from the Ministry of Public Security, by the end of 2024, the number of NEVs in China will reach 31.4 million, accounting for 8.90% of the total number of vehicles. In 2024, 11.25 million new NEVs were registered, making up 41.83% of all new vehicle registrations, a growth of 3.82 million or 51.49% compared to 2023.

From 1.2 million in 2019 to 11.25 million in 2024, the growth trend is remarkable. In July 2024, the penetration rate of NEVs in China first exceeded 50%. By April 2025, the penetration rate in the domestic passenger vehicle market reached 51.5%, an increase of 7.4 percentage points from the previous year. This means that nearly half of the vehicles sold in the current market are NEVs, transitioning from a novel category to a mainstream market segment.

However, the increase in NEVs has been accompanied by safety incidents, including fires and spontaneous combustion, leading to public anxiety regarding safety. A recent car owner shared that since the second half of 2024, their family purchased two cars, both of which were conventional fuel vehicles due to concerns about the safety of NEVs. “The safety of NEV batteries is a worrying factor for us. From our perspective, fuel vehicles are more mature and safer, while NEVs have only been in development for about 20 years. From past news events, we believe that in the event of a serious accident, NEVs would have less time to escape, and the consequences would be more severe.”

Battery safety standards have diversified, with mainstream automotive power batteries categorized into ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. Ouyang mentioned that the explosive growth of NEVs in China can be attributed to breakthroughs in lithium-ion battery technology. “The period from 2000 to 2030 is a complete technological cycle for power batteries. The first decade faced major safety issues, which remain unresolved today,” he explained.

There are various triggers for thermal runaway, such as short circuits and overcharging, leading to increased internal temperatures. In extreme cases, this can result in thermal runaway, which can spread throughout the battery system. To strengthen safety for NEVs, national regulatory standards for power battery market entry have been raised. The new national standard, effective from July 1, 2026, includes three major tests: thermal diffusion testing, bottom impact testing, and safety tests after fast charging cycles.

In thermal diffusion testing, the new standard requires that the protective capability of batteries after thermal runaway changes from “providing alarm signals for thermal events 5 minutes before fire or explosion” to “not catching fire or exploding (still requiring alarms) and ensuring that smoke does not harm passengers.” Accidents caused by bottom impacts have a high incidence in NEV battery fires, prompting the new standard to include bottom impact testing, which assesses the battery’s protective capability against impacts, requiring no leaks, shell ruptures, fires, or explosions while meeting insulation resistance standards.

The new standard also introduces safety testing after fast charging cycles, requiring batteries to undergo external short-circuit tests after 300 fast charging cycles to ensure they do not catch fire or explode. This test aims to evaluate the safety performance of batteries after prolonged high-frequency charging. The implementation of the new standard is supported by industry groundwork; as of February 2024, 78% of companies had reserves of technologies related to “not catching fire or exploding.” In 57 testing groups, only 4 failed, representing a mere 7% failure rate.

Experts believe that the new standards will significantly enhance the safety of electric vehicle batteries, helping to reduce the likelihood of accidents and decreasing the safety risks associated with electric vehicle usage. The standards will raise the barriers to entry in the industry, pressuring companies with substandard technologies to innovate, and conveying a strong message to consumers about the industry’s commitment to safety, thereby rebuilding consumer confidence in electric vehicles.

Traditionally, automakers have marketed NEVs emphasizing range and intelligence; however, safety has emerged as a new battlefield of greater interest. In a tightening regulatory environment, battery safety has become a crucial variable influencing market dynamics, research and development pace, and consumer choices. The safety performance of battery systems is closely related to materials, structural designs, thermal management capabilities, and manufacturing consistency. To fundamentally address the current thermal runaway issues in NEVs, technological innovation is indispensable.

Ouyang emphasized that safety must be the core focus of battery development, and current lithium-ion battery safety technologies must be improved. While it is unrealistic to completely eliminate thermal runaway at the cell level, the industry can explore thermal-mechanical-electrical design and control at the system level to prevent triggering and propagation so that even if a single cell experiences thermal runaway, it does not lead to an accident. “Battery safety is designed and manufactured; therefore, safety levels must be fundamentally improved from design and manufacturing perspectives.”

In interviews, it was revealed that a critical cause of accidents in power batteries is the thermal runaway of electrolytes, primarily due to the violent exothermic reaction between oxygen released from the cathode material at high temperatures and ethylene carbonate (EC), a component of the electrolyte. The essence of thermal runaway propagation is a chain exothermic reaction triggered by internal short circuits, overcharging, or mechanical damage in individual cells, leading to high-temperature ejections igniting adjacent cells and causing the entire battery pack to catch fire or explode.

Currently, various companies are clearly defining their strategies for improving battery safety. LFP batteries, known for their structural stability and low oxygen release, offer better thermal stability in high-temperature environments. Recently, numerous automakers have adopted LFP battery solutions on a large scale. The well-known “blade battery” combines elongated cells with a Cell-to-Body (CTB) structure to enhance module strength and improve heat dissipation, successfully passing extreme tests like puncture, overcharging, and combustion.

Ternary lithium batteries are recognized for their high energy density and are more suited for models with higher range demands. However, high-nickel ternary materials have relatively weak thermal stability at high temperatures and high state of charge (SOC). In recent years, companies have employed methods such as adding ceramic coatings, introducing flame-retardant electrolytes, and optimizing anode materials to enhance safety performance.

Some automotive companies have implemented new multi-channel directional venting designs that allow high-temperature gases to escape rapidly even if thermal runaway occurs within the battery. This design prevents thermal diffusion. Additionally, the bottom of the battery pack incorporates high-strength steel and energy-absorbing cavities for multi-layer safety protection against irregular damage during driving.

Other manufacturers are safeguarding NEVs by employing integrated under-cooling systems, non-electrified battery shells, “insulated” cooling liquids, and triple detection systems for battery monitoring. An industry insider noted that the understanding of power batteries has shifted from a sole focus on high specific energy to a more balanced development of energy density, safety, and cost control.

In addressing thermal runaway, there is a collective recognition that relying solely on material improvements is insufficient; systemic engineering methods must also be integrated. Meanwhile, companies are adopting the philosophy that “thermal runaway is inevitable, but it must be controllable” across the entire chain—from material research and cell structure to thermal management systems and vehicle control strategies.

Another avenue for solving power battery safety issues is developing solid-state batteries. Traditional liquid lithium batteries use liquid electrolytes, which are prone to thermal decomposition and combustion under high temperatures or short circuits, making them a primary trigger for thermal runaway. Solid-state batteries utilize solid electrolytes that are non-flammable and less volatile, significantly reducing the likelihood of fire and spontaneous combustion.

This year, several car manufacturers have released updates on the production timelines of solid-state batteries, showcasing their development progress. In January 2025, Honda announced that it would begin trial production of solid-state batteries for electric vehicles, aiming for mass production by 2030. In late February, Mercedes-Benz initiated road tests with solid-state batteries that achieve an energy density of 450Wh/kg, increasing range by 25% and exceeding 1000 kilometers on a single charge. Additionally, various domestic battery and vehicle companies have begun road tests with their solid-state batteries, aiming for mass production within the year.

On May 23, BMW announced the initiation of road testing for the world’s first vehicle equipped with a solid-state battery, the BMW i7, in Munich. Industry experts predict that 2027 will mark the beginning of small-scale applications of solid-state batteries, with large-scale production expected by 2030.

Challenges in solid-state battery production primarily lie in material production and cell manufacturing. Core performance indicators, such as the ionic conductivity of sulfide solid electrolytes, have generally met industrial application needs, and relevant capacities are steadily being released. The key to future advancements will be to further scale up production and reduce costs. In contrast, cell manufacturing remains a significant obstacle for automotive-grade solid-state batteries, with critical breakthroughs needed in processes such as electrode preparation, cell assembly, module integration, and battery management systems.

While the goal of achieving automotive-grade solid-state batteries by 2027 faces numerous practical challenges, the pace of technological evolution and iteration has accelerated significantly since last year, with new products and technologies emerging to drive future commercialization.

Solid-state batteries encompass four main technical routes: polymer, oxide, sulfide, and halide. Ouyang revealed that most major domestic companies are now focusing on sulfide-based solid-state battery technology, typically employing a material system composed of high-nickel ternary cathodes, sulfide composite electrolytes, and silicon-carbon anodes, aiming for an energy density of approximately 400Wh/kg, thereby surpassing the performance levels of traditional liquid batteries and hybrid batteries. Solid-state batteries are expected to enhance the safety of high-nickel ternary systems to levels comparable to LFP batteries.

“The industrialization of solid-state batteries will gradually commence from 2027 to 2028, with large-scale production expected by around 2030,” Ouyang noted, adding that achieving a target of 500Wh/kg for automotive solid-state batteries will require breakthroughs in key technologies related to lithium metal anodes, likely necessitating the development of new material research platforms empowered by artificial intelligence.

While the prospects for solid-state batteries are promising, significant development challenges remain. Dong Yang pointed out that although major countries globally are focusing on solid-state battery research, true mass production has yet to be realized. “Unlike the widely used liquid lithium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries utilize solid electrolytes, and all material systems, including the cathode and anode, are solid. Solid-state batteries have distinct advantages in thermal stability and electrochemical stability, significantly reducing the probability of thermal runaway; however, they are not ‘absolutely safe.’” He cautioned that solid-state batteries could still face structural damage under severe impacts, leading to risks such as short circuits. Additionally, high costs remain a primary barrier, with current liquid lithium battery costs around 0.5 yuan/Wh, while solid-state battery material costs reach 2 yuan/Wh, preventing effective competition with existing battery systems.

“We cannot relax our focus on the safety of current liquid lithium battery systems simply because solid-state batteries may be viable in the future,” he concluded.