Narrowing Price Declines Indicate Stabilization in the Photovoltaic Industry

Price Declines Slow Down! The Photovoltaic Industry is Bottoming Out (May 22, 2025)

This week, the mainstream transaction price for N-type recycled polysilicon is at 37.5 CNY/KG, while the price for N-type dense material is 35.0 CNY/KG, and N-type granular silicon is priced at 34.0 CNY/KG. The trading conditions remain subdued, as demand has entered a lull period. Crystal pulling factories are cautious in their purchases, and some smaller producers are selling below the average price by 1-2 CNY/KG, but their volume is relatively small and does not have a significant impact on the market.

Inventory Dynamics: The inventory level has surpassed 360,000 tons. Due to the slowdown in downstream purchasing rates, the overall inventory level of polysilicon continues to rise, which poses pressure in the future.

Supply and Demand Dynamics: There have been no significant production cutbacks observed among material suppliers, and discussions regarding planning are still ongoing. Crystal pulling factories do not have large-scale purchasing plans and are continuing with a just-in-time buying approach.

Price Trends: This week, prices for various types of N-type polysilicon have decreased, with the average price for N-type dense material reported at 35 CNY/KG, reflecting a slight week-on-week decline and still not stabilized.

For silicon wafers, the mainstream transaction price for N-type M10 wafers is 0.93 CNY/piece, for N-type G12 wafers it is 1.30 CNY/piece, and for N-type G12R wafers it is 1.08 CNY/piece.

Supply and Demand Dynamics: At present, there is a production gap for silicon wafers in relation to downstream demand. Additionally, silicon wafer manufacturers are generally implementing production cuts to control inventory levels effectively. However, upstream price instability and lower-than-expected terminal demand limit the ability to maintain stable prices, leading to a downward trend in prices throughout the week.

Inventory Dynamics: Current inventory levels are around 20GW, with a high proportion of 183N/210RN. Given that downstream is undergoing a transition in capacity size structure, the demand pressure for 183N is relatively high.

Price Trends: This week, prices for various specifications of N-type wafers have decreased week-on-week, with the 183N specification leading in price declines. Considering the instability of downstream prices, further price decreases in the silicon wafer sector are still possible.

For cell prices, the mainstream transaction price for M10 monocrystalline TOPCon cells is 0.255 CNY/W, for G12 monocrystalline TOPCon cells it is 0.273 CNY/W, and for G12R monocrystalline TOPCon cells it is 0.255 CNY/W.

Supply and Demand Dynamics: The supply-demand structure varies among different sizes of solar cells. For the 183 size, the supply-demand situation is somewhat tense, facing a situation of no market despite price. In contrast, the supply-demand for 210 is relatively stable, with good recent demand for high-power versions, providing some support for 210N demand. However, 210RN still faces pressure after the recent decline in distributed generation.

Inventory Dynamics: In terms of inventory, the pressure for solar cells is the lightest across the entire supply chain, with inventory turnover days around 6 days.

Price Trends: During the week, prices for N-type 183 and 210R decreased week-on-week, but the decline has slowed. The 183N still faces price pressure due to inventory and demand issues. Observing the future market, the decline in cell prices is slowing, and with the anticipated ramp-up in terminal demand in Q3, prices may stabilize.

In terms of modules, the mainstream transaction price for 182 bifacial double-glass TOPCon modules is 0.67 CNY/W, while for 210 bifacial double-glass HJT modules it is 0.77 CNY/W.

Supply and Demand Dynamics: On the supply side, manufacturers have reported decreased visibility for orders next month, indicating potential production cutbacks. The demand for higher power segments remains supported due to short-term drivers, while low-power products face more intense competition.

Price Trends: This week, the prices for centralized projects in China for 182-210mm TOPCon modules have stabilized, with an average price of 0.665 CNY/W for centralized projects and 0.670 CNY/W for distributed projects. The price range for bifacial M10-TOPCon from leading manufacturers has decreased to 0.62-0.72 CNY/W, and for bifacial G12-HJT, the mainstream quotes have converged in the 0.68-0.76 CNY/W range. Manufacturers are generally lowering prices, and during the Q2 demand vacuum, there is no stabilization in sight unless upstream issues lead to extraordinary production cut measures.

For submitting news tips or inquiries, please contact: Ms. Chen at WeChat/Phone: 13693626116 or via email: chenchen@bjxmail.com.

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