Morgan Stanley Projects Doubling of China’s Robot Sales by 2026 Amid Rapid Industry Growth

Morgan Stanley Raises Forecast: “China’s Robot Sales Expected to Double”

According to a report from the South China Morning Post on January 29, driven by the rapid growth of China’s robotics industry, the American investment bank Morgan Stanley has upgraded its forecast for the sales of humanoid robots in China for 2026. The bank now anticipates a 133% increase in sales this year, projecting a total of 28,000 units sold, a significant rise from the previous estimate of 14,000 units.

This revision is based on the latest industry data from 2025 and the current pace of development. Morgan Stanley further predicts that sales of humanoid robots in China will experience exponential growth, increasing from approximately 12,000 units in 2024 to 262,000 units by 2030, and reaching 2.6 million units by 2035.

The report also highlights that declining production costs will gradually lower the barriers to purchasing robots. As the core location for the global humanoid robot supply chain, China is expected to see a 16% decrease in the cost of raw materials for robot production this year. Bain & Company also projects that by 2035, prices for relevant global components will drop by about 70%.

Morgan Stanley believes that this downward trend in costs will significantly reduce the prices of humanoid robots. In middle- and low-income countries, including China, the price of humanoid robots is expected to fall from $50,000 in 2024 to around $21,000 by 2050. In developed nations like the United States, the average price is projected to decrease from $200,000 to $75,000 during the same period.

The investment bank predicts that the practical application of humanoid robots will become increasingly widespread. By 2036, the number of humanoid robots in use globally is expected to reach 25.4 million units, accounting for 2% of the overall robot market, which includes robotic arms and wheeled robots. This percentage is anticipated to rise to 13% by 2040 and further to 42% by 2044.

Morgan Stanley estimates that by 2050, the total number of humanoid robots deployed worldwide could surpass 1 billion units, with over half of these units utilized in middle- and high-income countries, including China. According to data from market research firm Counterpoint Research, China is currently the world’s largest market for humanoid robot applications, with over 80% of the global deployment expected by 2025.

The South China Morning Post also mentioned that the domestic humanoid robot industry has fully commenced its market promotion. Recently, several manufacturers have partnered with the CCTV Spring Festival Gala, a traditional cultural event that has become a high-profile platform for companies to showcase their market influence. Currently, four companies specializing in intelligent robotics have announced their participation in the 2026 Spring Festival Gala.

According to information released by the “General Manager’s Office of the China Media Group,” Songyan Power has become a partner for humanoid robots at the gala, while Galaxy General Robotics is designated as the provider of large model robots, and Magic Atom is a strategic partner for intelligent robots. Yushu Technology has also confirmed its role as a robot partner for the Spring Festival Gala, marking its third appearance on this prestigious stage. Previously, it showcased the robotic cow “Benben” during the 2021 New Year Gala and collaborated with Zhang Yimou to create a humanoid robot program titled “Yang BOT,” which became a hot topic in technology at last year’s event.