Longi Green Energy Executive Discusses Temporary Market Slowdown but Positive Future Demand for Distributed Solar Energy

The domestic photovoltaic market is currently experiencing a temporary slowdown in demand following the intense “installation rush.” According to Niu Yanyan, the President of Longi Green Energy’s Distributed Business in China, the market may face a “window period” from June to September. This phase will be crucial for the industry to digest and reflect on document No. 136. It will require consideration of how to transform future operations. Niu stated during an interview on May 29 that despite the challenges, the distributed market remains positive, especially for self-consumed commercial and industrial projects, which will not be significantly affected by the new photovoltaic policies.

By the end of 2024, the domestic installed capacity for photovoltaic power generation is expected to reach a record-breaking 890 million kilowatts. Notably, distributed photovoltaic systems will account for 370 million kilowatts, a staggering 121 times more than the figures from the end of 2013, representing nearly half of the total installed capacity for photovoltaic power generation.

Significant policy adjustments are reshaping the development trajectory of the distributed photovoltaic market. In January of this year, the National Energy Administration issued the “Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation,” which allows commercial distributed projects that are completed before May 1 to receive full grid connection subsidies. However, new projects initiated after this date will have to opt for self-consumption or sell surplus electricity to the grid, marking the end of the previous subsidy model.

On February 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released a pivotal document regarding the deepening of market-oriented reforms for renewable energy grid prices, which aims to promote high-quality development in the sector. This document establishes June 1, 2025, as a watershed moment for distinguishing between existing and new projects, which will be settled at different pricing structures. These two documents represent a significant shift in policy, marking a transition to a more market-driven approach.

In discussing the future of the domestic distributed photovoltaic market post-“531,” Niu noted that the new policy would have a more substantial impact on household photovoltaic systems compared to commercial projects. Investment-driven commercial projects may face challenges due to unstable electricity prices, making profitability difficult to assess. However, owners with self-consumption needs are likely to continue their installation plans.

Moreover, driven by both carbon neutrality requirements and the need to reduce carbon emissions for exports, high-energy-consuming industries are expected to continue establishing new renewable energy power stations. Emerging application scenarios in maritime transport and water management are also surfacing.

In terms of regional market dynamics, Niu mentioned that after the “531” policy change, industry players may gravitate towards regions with high electricity demand, such as Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang, leading to increased competition in these areas. She anticipates that due to the policy transition, there may be a contraction in domestic market demand for the year, as excessive competition is unlikely to yield growth.

In response, Longi Green Energy is focusing on uncovering growth opportunities within existing commercial rooftops. On the same day, the company announced the launch of the Hi-MO X10 lightweight dual-protection module, which is expected to be rolled out on a large scale by mid-June. This module weighs 7.2 kilograms per square meter, which is over 30% lighter than conventional modules. Utilizing HPBC 2.0 core technology, it boasts an efficiency of up to 24.8% and a maximum power output of 560W, primarily targeting low-load commercial rooftops such as old factories and lightweight color steel tiles.

Currently, there are more than ten types of lightweight or flexible modules in the market, but most utilize technologies like PERC or TOPCon, achieving only around 21% efficiency. In contrast, mainstream flexible modules often lack frames, making them prone to micro-cracks and risks of delamination due to adhesive installation methods, which complicates long-term maintenance.

Niu emphasized that while this lightweight product cannot entirely replace existing mainstream offerings, market potential is not the sole consideration for its release. Insights indicate that approximately 20% of rooftops face installation delays due to load capacity issues, and it is estimated that 15% to 20% of existing rooftops could convert into growth opportunities for the company.