2026: Six Key Trends in Robot Development

As we move into 2026, the robot industry is shifting its focus from concept hype to tangible returns on investment (ROI). With over 50% of the global industrial robot installation volume, China continues to lead the way.

In 2025, the robotics sector was bustling with activity—capital investments surged, humanoid robots made frequent appearances, and embodied intelligence became a buzzword. However, the industrial robot market has seen little growth in installation volume since 2021, with China accounting for more than half of the global share.

As we enter 2026, the industry is transitioning from merely telling stories to calculating the bottom line. The focus is now on practicality: Is it usable? Is it cost-effective? Is it reliable? Below are six trends that reflect the industry’s reality in the coming year.

1. Manufacturing Becomes the Main Battlefield for Automation

In the United States, many factories are looking to bring production back home, driven by concerns over supply chain disruptions, geopolitical risks, and tariffs. However, labor costs are high and recruiting is challenging, making automation the solution to improving efficiency.

Conversely, sectors like retail and e-commerce warehouses are applying the brakes due to economic uncertainty, making them hesitant to invest millions in robots. In China, companies like BYD, CATL, and Gree have already transformed their factories into “smart entities” with autonomous forklifts, robotic arms working around the clock, and automated production scheduling. SAIC-GM-Wuling has even developed an “intelligent island” model that allows for a new production line to be set up in just two hours, down from two days. In manufacturing, automation is no longer a question of whether to implement it, but how quickly it can be done.

2. Robot Supply Chains are Splitting

Previously, 90% of critical components were sourced from China. Now, clients in Europe and North America are increasingly concerned about dependency, prompting them to request local sourcing or dual-sourcing strategies. This has resulted in the gradual formation of two distinct robotic ecosystems in China and the U.S. While this may lead to higher costs in the short term, it provides greater peace of mind in the long run.

Chinese companies are responding pragmatically: Yushu Technology produces over 90% of its humanoid robot’s core components in-house, while Yiyou Technology has built the world’s first fully automated joint module production line in Shanghai, with an annual capacity of 100,000 units. The Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta regions have established a “two-hour supply chain circle,” allowing for rapid prototyping after discussions at trade shows. This speed is difficult for others to replicate. Additionally, the government is supportive, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stating that by 2027, China aims to produce 1 million humanoid robots annually—a solid industrial strategy.

3. More Companies are Choosing to Rent Robots

Many businesses are hesitant to make large upfront investments in equipment, opting instead for “Robots as a Service” (RaaS) models, which allow for monthly payments that include hardware, software, and maintenance. This approach reduces financial pressure and lowers the risk of trial and error, particularly for small and medium-sized manufacturers and logistics providers. Companies like Ubtech and Zhiyuan are now offering comprehensive packages that include “robots + data + operations.” Additionally, local governments in cities like Wuhan are providing subsidies for pilot projects, with grants of up to 1 million yuan to encourage businesses to experiment with this model.

4. The Rise of “Dark Warehouses”

While fully automated “dark warehouses” are not yet widespread, night-time operations without human workers have become a reality. For example, a U.S. e-commerce company uses robots to prepare orders at night, allowing workers to package and ship them first thing in the morning, effectively doubling efficiency. China has made even faster progress, with JD.com’s “Asia No. 1” and Cainiao’s Jiaxing Park already operating around the clock. In high-turnover industries like renewable energy and 3C electronics, Automated Guided Vehicles (AGVs) are prevalent, with systems automatically scheduling operations and human workers assigned only to handle exceptions. Even small courier distribution centers in county towns are beginning to use small robots.

5. Humanoid Robots Continue to Make an Impression

In 2026, humanoid robots remain largely demonstration models. Most are still in the testing phase, collecting data and conducting trials, with few capable of consistent, reliable work. High costs, susceptibility to damage, and low efficiency (currently only about 30% of human performance) make ROI difficult to calculate. However, Chinese companies are making strides in this area, with forecasts indicating that global humanoid robot shipments will reach 13,000 units by 2025, primarily from Chinese manufacturers. For instance, Zhiyuan’s shipments reached 5,168 units, while Yushu Technology surpassed 5,500 units, and Ubtech delivered 1,000 units. While many of these robots are used for research, data collection, and exhibition tours, they represent real sales and operational scenarios.

Moreover, the progression from “single-unit demonstrations” to “system collaboration” is notable. In 2025, Shanghai Zhangjiang established the country’s first humanoid robot “7S store,” which not only sells and repairs robots but also offers training and solutions. In Wuhan, the “Robot School” focuses on humanoid robot innovation, capable of training hundreds of robots annually and collecting over a million operational data points to inform model iterations. This “mass production + training + application” closed-loop system is rare globally.

6. Community Mini-Warehouses Are Gaining Popularity

After a period of stagnation, the fresh produce e-commerce market is experiencing a resurgence. To ensure faster delivery and lower costs, big companies are refocusing on “micro fulfillment centers” (MFCs) within communities. Advances in robot technology have made these smaller warehouses profitable. By 2025, China had already streamlined operations, with Meituan opening over 2,000 “lightning warehouses,” averaging 300-500 square meters, leveraging self-developed AMR robots and AI scheduling systems for 30-minute deliveries. Hema X’s membership stores have automated 80% of their back warehouse operations, achieving a daily processing capacity of over 5,000 orders per warehouse through “goods-to-person” picking systems using Hikvision robots. JD.com is also testing an integrated model combining “front store, back warehouse + unmanned delivery” in major cities.

Technological breakthroughs include the launch of the “Little Bee” series of AMRs by KuaiCang, which can navigate multiple floors and achieve millimeter-level positioning in tight spaces. Additionally, Jizhijia’s new visual recognition system can accurately identify hundreds of fresh SKUs, even in low-light conditions. Crucially, the overall system cost has decreased by over 40% compared to three years ago, making it affordable for chain supermarkets in third- and fourth-tier cities.

The challenge now is not whether these systems can be implemented, but how to scale them effectively. In 2025, the National Postal Service began promoting pilot projects for “smart micro-warehouses in communities,” with many local governments incorporating MFCs into urban convenience initiatives. Robots are no longer just toys for large manufacturers; they have become essential infrastructure serving everyday life in neighborhoods.

Conclusion

In 2026, the robotics industry will be more grounded in practical applications. Stakeholders are less interested in flashy demonstrations and more focused on questions like: How many people can be saved? How long is the payback period? How easy is it to repair? For Chinese companies, this presents a significant opportunity. With a complete industrial chain, a customer base willing to experiment, and supportive innovation policies, along with the largest and most diverse application scenarios globally, the competition will no longer be about who has the best presentation but rather who can deploy robots reliably in factories, warehouses, and hospitals on a daily basis. That is the essence of true intelligence.