Investment Opportunities in the Humanoid Robot Industry Chain: Insights from CITIC Construction Investment

CITIC Construction Investment: Investment Opportunities in the Humanoid Robot Industry Chain

As Tesla leads the global revolution in “Physical AI” industries, humanoid robots stand as one of its core pillars. They share technological foundations with smart driving, such as end-to-end models for Full Self-Driving (FSD), initiating a closed-loop iteration of “data-algorithm-hardware.” The upcoming release of Tesla’s Optimus V3 in Q1 has invigorated market expectations for the robotics sector, with Tesla’s supply chain entering a verification period.

Looking ahead, key events such as the Gen3 specification, new product releases, and IPO progress of domestic robot manufacturers are worth close attention. It is advisable to focus on high-quality segments at the bottom of the market, capturing certainties and core changes like dexterous hands.

The CITIC Construction Investment teams in machinery, pharmaceuticals, automotive, electric power, metals, and new materials have collaboratively launched a series of studies titled Latest Investment Outlook for the Humanoid Robot Industry Chain:

• Pharmaceuticals | Exoskeleton Robots: Resonance across the industry chain, with a booming domestic market.
• Pharmaceuticals | Surgical Robots: AI-driven assistance moving towards “autonomous driving,” with domestic leaders expanding into the global market.
• Machinery | Humanoid Robots: Close attention to Optimus Gen3 release cycles as semiconductor equipment demand remains strong.
• Automotive | Humanoid Robots: Accelerating industry integration with focus on opportunities led by Tesla and domestic supply chains.
• Machinery | Recommendation: Entering the new product release phase for humanoid robots, with upward trends in semiconductor capital expenditures.
• Electric Power | Optimus V3: Upcoming release in Q1, with domestic production accelerating and focus on fulfilling industrial rhythms and undervalued assets.
• Metals and New Materials: Commercialization and certification focus on high-quality segments.
• Machinery | Humanoid Robots and Embodied Intelligence: Signaling the dawn of mass production, a trillion-yuan market is set to launch.
• Automotive | Robots: A pivotal year for mass production, focusing on Tesla and other OEM supply chain and technological iterations.

Exoskeleton Robot Industry Report Part Two: Resonance Across the Industry Chain, Thriving Domestic Market.

In recent years, policy support has gradually increased, and, driven by core aspects of technology, payment, and application, exoskeleton robots have entered a phase of accelerated commercialization. As downstream market demand expands and products mature, the exoskeleton robot market is rapidly growing, with the consumer market expected to flourish.

In the upstream core components sector, the growth in demand for exoskeleton robots is likely to drive expansion in markets for frameless torque motors and posture sensors. Currently, products from domestic companies are primarily focused on medical rehabilitation but are gradually expanding into consumer and industrial sectors. Since 2025, several companies have launched consumer-level assistive products. Innovations in products, improvements in performance, and reductions in costs are expected to further accelerate commercialization. Attention should be paid to both upstream component manufacturers and the business layouts and progress of downstream companies.

Policy Support: In recent years, support for the industry has increased, leading to a robust development of the domestic exoskeleton robot market. Since 2021, various government departments, including the State Council and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, have issued policies to support the development of the robotics industry. In January 2023, a joint implementation plan for “Robotics+” applications was released, emphasizing the promotion of applications like exoskeleton robots in elder care services.

With the expansion of downstream market demand and product maturation, the investment and financing market for domestic exoskeleton robots is heating up under increasing policy support.

Commercialization Acceleration: Exoskeleton robots have entered a phase of rapid commercialization driven by technology, payment, and application:

• Technology: Early products faced bottlenecks in power, materials, and control. Now, advancements in battery energy density, lightweight materials, and smart algorithms have made exoskeleton robots more efficient and reliable.
• Payment: Previously high costs limited adoption; now, innovations like healthcare exploration, commercial insurance partnerships, and leasing models are alleviating financial burdens on users.
• Application: Initial applications were limited; now, they span healthcare to industrial and consumer sectors, significantly boosting market demand and accelerating commercialization.

Market Size: The exoskeleton market is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years, with the consumer market likely to expand significantly. According to Markets and Markets and other consulting firms, the global exoskeleton market is projected to reach approximately 3.9 billion yuan by 2025, maintaining rapid growth over the next 6-8 years.

As of 2023, the Chinese exoskeleton robot market has grown from 45 million yuan in 2018 to 1.06 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 88%. With improvements in product performance and growing medical demands, the market is expected to expand rapidly.

We anticipate that as exoskeleton robots gain widespread application in healthcare, industrial, and consumer fields, potential long-term market demand could reach tens of millions of units, with a market size potentially exceeding 100 billion yuan. The core component market is also expected to see substantial growth.

Core Components: The growth in demand for exoskeleton robots is expected to drive expansion in markets for motors, reducers, and posture sensors. Our estimates suggest that for ten million exoskeleton robots, the corresponding market for frameless torque motors, harmonic/planetary reducers, and posture sensors would be 3.2 billion yuan, 8 billion yuan, and 4 billion yuan, respectively.

Frameless torque motors are a crucial power source for exoskeleton robots; reducers are key transmission components; and posture sensors, typically located at critical points on the exoskeleton, can simulate human balance and spatial orientation functionalities. Currently, most domestic products focus on medical rehabilitation and are gradually expanding into consumer and industrial products.

Risk Warning: There are several risks to consider, including the potential for research and development progress to lag behind expectations, intellectual property and patent risks, underperforming main business results, and commercialization processes that may not meet expectations. The exoskeleton industry involves high technical barriers, and companies must invest considerable resources in independent research and development. Inadequate protection of technology could lead to intellectual property infringements, impacting returns on investment and the overall healthy development of the industry.

Surgical Robots: AI-Driven Assistance Moving Towards “Autonomous Driving,” Domestic Leaders Expanding into Global Markets.

Surgical robots represent one of the best business models in the medical device sector, as installed equipment consistently drives the demand for consumables, creating stable revenue and cash flow. The global market for leading surgical robots has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, and there remains substantial room for growth in both market penetration and size.

Overseas leaders hold a dominant market position, while domestic leaders are accelerating product iterations, with performance nearing global standards. They are making strides in remote surgery and achieving significant growth in international business, with revenues and market capitalizations expected to increase several-fold.

We believe that AI has the potential to empower surgical robots to achieve autonomous operations, further assisting or even replacing certain surgical processes performed by doctors, boosting industry penetration rates and company valuations.

Technological Trends: Following a development path similar to automotive autonomous driving levels L0-L5, AI will drive the evolution of surgical robots from assistance to autonomous surgery. Surgical robots extend and enhance the capabilities of surgeons, boasting high precision, minimal patient trauma, and rapid recovery times, making them essential tools for surgeons.

The speed of AI learning and experience accumulation surpasses that of humans, and the combination of AI and robotics may eventually free surgeons from certain tasks while maintaining performance unaffected by emotions, attention, or fatigue.

Business Model: Mature and high-quality, leading to stable cash flows driven by consumables. Global leaders like Intuitive Surgical have achieved over 70 billion yuan in revenue and continue to grow steadily. Consumables are a significant revenue source in the robotic business. As the existing installed base increases, the revenue structure of domestic surgical robot companies is expected to change, enhancing stability and growth in income.

International Progress: Similar to the electric vehicle industry, China’s leading surgical robot companies are rapidly increasing their global market share. Leveraging China’s engineering talent, industry chain advantages, and extensive surgical experience, domestic leaders possess competitive edges in cost-effectiveness and innovative differentiation as they continue to penetrate non-U.S. markets in Europe and Southeast Asia.

Investment Opportunities: Demand remains unmet, with significant room for penetration increases. Breakthroughs in international markets and AI empowerment are likely to benefit leading companies’ performances and valuations.

In the U.S., penetration rates for certain surgical procedures involving robotic assistance have already exceeded 80%. In Europe, China, and Southeast Asia, however, penetration rates remain significantly lower, indicating that as application fields continue to expand, the industry market size is expected to persistently grow, with domestic leaders likely to evolve into global leaders.

Valuation Restructuring: In alignment with the trillion-yuan market capitalization of global leaders, domestic leaders have substantial room for growth in both revenue and market valuation. Drawing from investment experiences in fields like humanoid robots and brain-machine interfaces, breakthroughs in AI and robotics in surgery by benchmark companies like Tesla and Intuitive Surgical are expected to catalyze continued increases in valuations.

Why are Surgical Robots Considered One of the Best Business Models in Medical Devices? The combination of equipment, consumables, and services creates a high level of customer loyalty and continuous cash flow. Surgical robots combine sales models of equipment, consumables, and services. Consumable products exhibit high purchase frequency and stable demand, with relatively high profit margins. Although equipment purchases are less frequent, once a critical mass of installed devices is achieved, it will continuously drive demand for consumables and services, contributing to stable cash flow.

Surgical robot devices not only serve as entry points for consumable flows but also possess significant inherent value. Compared to sectors like in-vitro diagnostics, where equipment and consumables are often sold at lower prices to drive demand, surgical robots have higher technological barriers, more complex supply chains, and production processes, necessitating stronger stability requirements, thus ensuring higher value and profit margins.

Therapeutic Devices Generate Diverse Consumable Demand: As therapeutic devices, surgical robots require various types of consumables during procedures. This includes mechanical arms equipped with needle holders, orthopedic robot positioning markers, and one-time use consumables like orthopedic implants and ultrasonic scalpels. These generate consistent income streams. In the case of global leaders like Intuitive Surgical and Stryker, consumables account for a substantial portion of revenue, and as the existing installed base increases, the revenue structure of domestic surgical robot companies is expected to evolve, enhancing performance stability.

Why Do Penetration Rates and Market Ceilings Still Have Significant Potential for Growth? The application domains are extensive, and indications continue to expand. The use of surgical robots has evolved from initial applications in laparoscopic and orthopedic fields to cover respiratory, vascular, digestive, percutaneous, and neurosurgical areas. In the field of laparoscopic robots, indications have expanded from urology and gynecology to general surgery and thoracic surgery.

Intuitive Surgical is projected to perform approximately 3.15 million surgeries in 2025, an 18% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by growth in general surgery volumes in the U.S. and non-urological surgery volumes across non-U.S. regions. The willingness to purchase has not yet been fully released; demand for equipment remains unmet. After more than 20 years of development, clinical physicians have become increasingly aware of the advantages of surgical robots. However, high equipment prices, procurement policies, and payment capacity limitations have constrained demand for adoption. With the cost-effectiveness of Chinese products becoming apparent and payment policies gradually improving in some countries, as well as a loosening of domestic configuration certificate policies, we anticipate continuous rapid growth in surgical robot installations.

Clinical penetration rates are low, and demand in emerging markets remains to be fully explored. In 2024, the penetration rate for robotic-assisted laparoscopic surgeries in the U.S. is expected to be around 21.9%, while China is only at 0.7%, with penetration rates in South America and Eastern Europe projected to remain in the low single digits. The ongoing increase in installed equipment, improvements in payment environments, and the application of AI and remote surgery technologies will be critical factors driving penetration rate increases, particularly in rapidly developing emerging markets, which will serve as the primary engine for global industry growth.

How Does AI Empower Surgical Robots? Why is the technological iteration of surgical robots conducive to enhancing penetration rates? AI technology significantly enhances surgical robots, potentially leading them towards an ultimate form of “autonomous driving.” Currently, AI applications in medical robots include real-time image analysis for identifying critical tissues, predicting bleeding risks, guiding precise operations, assisting physicians in decision-making, and executing precise positioning of orthopedic implants based on surgical planning capabilities. These advancements can further improve operational precision and efficiency.

Currently, the intelligence of surgical robots is still in its early stages, classified from Level of Autonomy (LoA) 0 to LoA 5. Most surgical robots are at LoA 0-1. With the explosive development of AI technology, surgical robots are expected to gradually reach LoA 5, where they can independently perform surgeries. If significant breakthroughs in autonomous operations and coverage of various surgical types are achieved, they could assist, free, or even replace parts of the surgical process performed by surgeons, significantly boosting penetration rates.

Intuitive Surgical’s products are continuously upgraded, with new technologies like force feedback making substantial progress. In March 2024, Intuitive Surgical’s next-generation platform, da Vinci 5, received FDA approval, showcasing significant gains in computing power compared to the previous Xi system, alongside new force feedback and intra-operative video playback features supporting AI-assisted applications.

Remote surgery presents vast opportunities, with increasing installation volumes leading to qualitative changes. Thanks to the maturity of communication technologies like 5G, domestic companies have a relative lead in the field of remote robotic surgery in terms of technological reserves and clinical experience. The value of remote surgery will gradually be realized as the coverage area expands and installed quantities rise. If hospitals in grassroots and remote areas can be equipped with surgical robots, the reliance on expert surgeons could diminish, facilitating the dissemination of high-quality surgical resources to more regions.

Why Are We Optimistic About the Growth Potential of Domestic Enterprises in Overseas Markets? Technology as the core, channels as the veins, and cost-effectiveness as the wings create a multi-dimensional competitive advantage tailored to different regional market demands. Product strength is fundamental for success in international markets, with engineering talent and industry chain advantages forming a competitive edge. Domestic companies are continually achieving technological breakthroughs and leveraging engineering manufacturing advantages and supply chain foundations to catch up rapidly with overseas leaders. Current leading domestic products, such as those from TuMai, JingFeng, and TianJi, are expected to match the performance of overseas leaders while holding leading advantages in 5G remote surgery and progressing in AI empowerment and autonomous operations.

Intellectual property protection is crucial, ensuring that every step taken in overseas markets is solid and effective. Our analysis of Intuitive Surgical’s patent layout indicates that the company holds numerous core patents in areas such as EndoWrist technology in arm joints, 3D high-definition imaging technology, and human-computer interaction design in control consoles, with the most robust patent protection in the U.S. market. In the short term, domestic companies will primarily focus on non-U.S. markets where patent risks are relatively lower. As some of Intuitive Surgical’s patents expire and domestic leading companies continue to innovate and file patents, the risk of patent litigation is expected to gradually diminish.

Establishing channels, sales teams, and after-sales service capabilities is essential. Domestic surgical robot companies are adopting a strategy of “breakthrough in emerging markets + deep cultivation in mature markets.” On one hand, they are rapidly penetrating markets in South America, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Belt and Road countries, where the installation of Da Vinci robots is relatively low and price-performance ratios are highly demanded. On the other hand, they are deepening relationships with clients in mature markets like Europe, gradually establishing brand recognition.

Sales teams need to achieve high localization levels and be well-acquainted with local policy environments. In terms of after-sales support, they must be capable of rapid 24/7 responses and ensure thorough refinement in R&D and production to enhance product stability and reduce failure rates. Fully leveraging latecomer advantages can highlight cost-effectiveness and differentiated functional combinations. On one hand, domestic surgical robots can leverage the market education efforts of overseas companies like Intuitive Surgical, enabling users to quickly understand the differences between their products and Da Vinci robots, thereby emphasizing cost advantages. On the other hand, domestic products are expected to develop differentiated selling points in new functionalities such as remote surgery and integrated systems.

Looking at the Domestic Market’s Policy Environment and Competitive Landscape: High R&D and entry barriers exist, with some leading companies possessing product strength advantages. The development of surgical robots involves high barriers, requiring long-term accumulation of interdisciplinary technology and talent, and product registration must undergo rigorous clinical trials and complex regulatory approvals. As high-risk therapeutic devices, surgical robots are subject to stringent requirements for maturity, stability, and clinical validation experience. The domestic surgical robot industry has entered a flourishing phase; leading companies have significant first-mover advantages, with some manufacturers already surpassing early technology reserves and clinical registration hurdles, though there remains a gap in product strength and intellectual property protection compared to leading firms, facing genuine market competition challenges ahead.

Currently, the domestic market is constrained by configuration certificate policies, and the removal of these certificates will benefit market expansion. The combination of high equipment prices and hospital funding pressures continues to limit demand growth. However, the scarcity of configuration certificates has rendered low-price strategies ineffective; on a macro level, achieving quantity through price changes in the short term is challenging, and hospitals obtaining configuration certificates may prioritize product performance over cost considerations. With the national policy supporting medical technological innovations and the gradual reduction in the costs and prices of surgical robots, we believe that the configuration certificate policies will ultimately be lifted, significantly enhancing the penetration rates of domestic surgical robots.

Policy Support for the Development of Innovative Surgical Devices: The National Healthcare Security Administration has issued guidelines supporting innovation in surgical devices, which will help improve penetration rates. Currently, the charging standards for robotic surgeries are not clearly defined, but they are expected to materialize in 2026. Most provinces have established charging directories for laparoscopic robots, but many regions still lack coverage for orthopedic and bronchial surgical robots.

Once charging standards are clarified, surgical robot costs may be covered by medical insurance or commercial insurance, further reducing patient burdens and increasing surgical penetration rates. The current landscape indicates that laparoscopic and orthopedic surgical robots have entered a rapid commercialization phase, while some other types still face technological entry barriers. We believe firms with first-mover advantages can maintain their product performance and stability through continuous iteration and the accumulation of surgical volumes, and future industry concentration is likely to remain high.

How to View the Valuation of Surgical Robot Companies? Excellent business models and strong industry growth potential should lead to a valuation premium. Overall, surgical robots are among the best tracks in the medical device sector and deserve a valuation premium. Considering the industry is still in its early development stage, the global surgical robot market is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of over 15% in the next decade, which supports high valuations for the industry.

Surgical robots combine robotic and AI attributes, falling within the medical technology sector, and are likely to see valuation restructurings as overseas breakthroughs and significant revenue growth emerge. Looking at indices in fields like humanoid robots and brain-machine interfaces, breakthroughs in technology among global leaders are expected to catalyze sustained increases in market valuations. We maintain a positive outlook on the AI and technological attributes of surgical robots, which are among the earliest applications of robotics technology, anticipating continued increases in valuations as revenues rise, international breakthroughs occur, and autonomous control capabilities enhance.

Potential Catalysts: Some companies have developed surgical robots that can enter the U.S. market due to technological innovations. Meanwhile, certain domestic leaders are experiencing rapid growth in overseas market orders, with performance potentially exceeding expectations. The anticipated easing of configuration certificate policies in China could lead to rapid increases in penetration rates and installation volumes.

Risk Warnings: Risks include the potential for technological innovation to lag behind expectations, the lengthy R&D cycles for surgical robots, and the challenges of converting technologies from laboratory to commercial applications. Increased market competition could affect product pricing and profit margins, while patent disputes may arise as companies expand into international markets. Geopolitical conflicts and currency fluctuations could pose additional risks, impacting market access and revenues.

Humanoid Robots: Close attention to the Optimus Gen3 release cycle as the semiconductor equipment landscape continues to stabilize. Tesla is at the forefront of the global “Physical AI” industrial transformation, with humanoid robots as a key pillar, sharing technological foundations with smart driving and initiating a closed-loop iteration of “data-algorithm-hardware.” The approaching release of Tesla’s Optimus V3 in Q1, alongside clear production plans for V3, keeps market expectations buoyed. Additionally, Tesla’s supply chain is gradually entering a verification phase.

Looking ahead, focus on key events such as the Gen3 specification confirmation, new product releases, and the IPO progress of domestic robot manufacturers. It is advisable to concentrate on quality segments at the bottom of the market, capturing certainties and core changes.

Construction Machinery: In December, both domestic and international excavator sales grew, alongside significant increases in crane sales. The forecast for Q1 2026 looks promising. In December 2025, sales of automotive cranes increased by 38.1% year-on-year, with domestic sales up by 39.1% and exports by 37.2%. Sales of crawler cranes saw a year-on-year rise of 68.1%, with domestic sales up by 95.5% and exports by 56.8%. Excavator sales hit 23,095 units, a 19.2% increase compared to the previous year, with domestic sales at 10,331 units, up by 10.9%, and exports at 12,764 units, up by 26.9%. We predict that the domestic market will achieve over 10% growth in 2026, with exports expected to grow by over 15%, as internal and external demands continue to resonate positively.

Semi-Conductor Equipment: TSMC’s CAPEX guidance exceeded expectations, reaffirming the sector’s positive outlook, driven by AI logic and ongoing storage expansion demands. From a domestic fab expansion perspective, the gap in advanced logic remains substantial, and under the context of self-sufficiency, we are optimistic about the acceleration of advanced logic expansion. The upward cycle in storage is strong, and substantial expansion in NAND and DRAM is highly certain. Additionally, we view domestic advanced packaging as a promising area for expansion.

Lithium Battery Equipment: Q1 catalysts are abundant, and we maintain a strong outlook for the solid-state battery sector this spring. The inter-ministerial joint conference on energy-saving and new energy vehicle development held in Beijing emphasized the acceleration of breakthroughs in solid-state batteries and high-level autonomous driving technologies. This highlights the importance of solid-state battery technology in significant meetings. Meanwhile, the first national standard for solid-state batteries, “Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles — Part 1: Terms and Classification,” has entered the opinion-gathering stage, setting stricter standards and aiming to reduce the confusion in industry terminologies. With mid-term approvals for solid-state batteries proceeding as planned, companies’ pilot lines will undergo rigorous testing, leading to more refined technological solutions and increasing certainty. Leading battery manufacturers and vehicle manufacturers are expected to initiate a new round of order tenders, enhancing the allocation value of solid-state battery stocks this spring.

Forklifts & Mobile Robots: External sales of forklifts continued to grow in December, and we are optimistic about the expansion of smart logistics-related businesses. In December, sales of large vehicles declined by 12%, primarily due to a high base from the previous year. Additionally, related companies reduced domestic shipments after meeting annual targets, while external sales increased by 4%, resulting in moderate growth. We anticipate a positive upward trend in both domestic and external demand for forklifts.

Risk Warnings: (1) Risk of domestic macroeconomic fluctuations: The machinery sector is a typical midstream capital goods industry closely tied to macroeconomic conditions. Any significant shifts in domestic macro policies are likely to affect overall demand in the machinery industry. (2) Risks associated with fluctuations in overseas markets: Chinese enterprises venturing abroad may face various challenges, and future journeys may involve friction. It is important to assess whether these are temporary interruptions or indicators of new trends. (3) Risks of downstream expansion not meeting expectations: If downstream industries do not expand as anticipated, corresponding equipment demand may decline, adversely impacting orders and performance for companies within the industry.