Industry Leader Anticipates Nearly 10 Billion Yuan Profit Over Three Years Despite Projected 6.5 Billion Yuan Loss in 2025, Aiming for Performance Reversal This Year

In the coming three years, the cumulative profit is expected to reach nearly 10 billion yuan. However, industry leader Trina Solar (688599.SH) anticipates a loss exceeding 6.5 billion yuan in 2025, while aiming for a turnaround in performance this year.

On the evening of January 23, Trina Solar announced its 2026 Restricted Stock Incentive Plan and 2026 Employee Stock Ownership Plan. Notably, the performance assessment targets outlined in both plans are identical, stipulating a net profit of no less than 200 million yuan for 2026; at least 3.2 billion yuan for 2027, or a cumulative net profit of not less than 3.4 billion yuan from 2026 to 2027; and a minimum net profit of 6.2 billion yuan for 2028, or a cumulative net profit of not less than 9.6 billion yuan from 2026 to 2028.

According to the company’s recent performance forecast, it projects a net loss of between 6.5 billion yuan and 7.5 billion yuan for 2025. This indicates that the company plans to achieve a significant performance turnaround over the next three years.

In its announcement, Trina Solar stated that the performance indicators were established based on various factors, including the company’s current situation, future strategic planning, and industry development. The targets set are considered challenging for future growth. On one hand, they aim to enhance the company’s competitive capabilities and motivate employee performance; on the other hand, they focus on the company’s strategic direction and the achievement of operational goals.

As a leading integrated module manufacturer, Trina Solar is expected to ship between 70 GW and 75 GW of modules in 2025, ranking among the top four in the industry. An interview with a representative from Trina Solar reported on January 24, indicated that the outlook for a recovery in the photovoltaic (PV) industry is primarily based on the advancement of industry self-regulation and measures to combat excessive competition. The representative emphasized that restoring profitability in the battery module sector is a key focus of the anti-competition efforts, as the goal is to achieve profitability across the entire industry chain rather than in isolated segments.

Currently, many photovoltaic companies are still facing losses, particularly in the downstream battery and module segments, which are experiencing significant profit pressures due to “price declines and rising costs.” According to data from Choice, as of January 24, out of the 22 companies in the photovoltaic industry chain that have released 2025 performance forecasts, 20 are expected to report losses. Tongwei Co. has the highest anticipated loss of 10 billion yuan, with TCL Zhonghuan, Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, Longi Green Energy, and JA Solar also forecasting substantial losses in the tens of billions.

Trina Solar analyzed in its performance forecast that the photovoltaic industry will continue to experience a phase of supply-demand imbalance in 2025, with low operating rates across various segments of the supply chain. This will exacerbate market competition, compounded by the ongoing influence of international trade protection policies, putting pressure on photovoltaic product prices in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year. Although prices are expected to gradually increase in the second half of the year due to anti-competitive measures, the rapid rise in costs of key raw materials such as silicon and silver paste will negatively impact the profitability of the company’s module business, leading to anticipated losses for the fiscal year 2025. Additionally, in line with a cautious approach, the company will conduct impairment tests on long-term assets showing signs of depreciation, which will also affect performance outcomes.

However, the photovoltaic industry has recently signaled a price reversal. On January 20, Trina Solar announced a new guidance price for distributed photovoltaic modules, increasing it by 0.03 yuan/W, setting the price range between 0.88 yuan and 0.92 yuan/W. This marks the third price adjustment for Trina Solar since the beginning of 2026, with an accumulated increase of 0.06 yuan/W for standard modules in less than a month. The price of lightweight single-glass modules has now surpassed 1.08 yuan/W, indicating a return of mainstream photovoltaic module prices to the “1 yuan era.”

According to Infolink Consulting, leading module companies in China are generally responding to industry self-regulatory actions by raising module prices by 0.02 yuan to 0.04 yuan/W, and high-priced module transactions are already emerging in distributed channels. Intermediate segments, such as silicon wafers and batteries, also show strong intentions to maintain pricing, further supporting increases in terminal module prices. There is a high likelihood that we will see price increases reflected in terminal modules, which could lead to more optimistic expectations for improvements in battery and module profits in 2026.

Notably, on January 23, the topic of “Space Photovoltaics” ignited market enthusiasm, leading to a broad rally in the photovoltaic sector, with Trina Solar’s stock surging by 16%. On January 22, during the World Economic Forum annual meeting, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, expressed his strong support for space photovoltaics and revealed key capacity planning. He stated that establishing a space AI computing center is a natural progression, and that SpaceX and Tesla are jointly advancing solar energy capacity enhancement, aiming to achieve an annual manufacturing capability of 100 GW of solar energy over the next three years.

Recently, Trina Solar introduced its collaborations with leading aerospace companies in Europe and the United States, focusing on commercial partnerships involving perovskite and crystalline silicon tandem products intended for satellite applications. The company plans to primarily target leading clients in Europe and the United States, key domestic research institutes, and commercial aerospace enterprises, maintaining close contacts with various clients and progressing with relevant supply chain developments.