Impact of Export Tax Cancellation on the Solar and Battery Industries: Insights from Recent Institutional Research on Potential Winners

The export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic (PV) and battery products is undergoing a significant adjustment, which is expected to spark a “rush for exports” in the short term. Despite pressures on the industry fundamentals, market capital remains actively invested, with numerous companies attracting institutional research interest.

Recently, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued a notice regarding the adjustment of export tax rebate policies for products such as photovoltaic modules. Starting from April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate for VAT on photovoltaic products will be eliminated. Additionally, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will also be canceled on January 1, 2027. This policy adjustment is part of the latest requirements to combat “overcompetition” in the new energy sector.

In light of this policy change, listed companies involved in photovoltaic equipment and batteries have recently released earnings forecasts for 2025. The majority of these forecasts indicate concerns about future performance. However, despite the bleak outlook, market capital is optimistic about these two sectors, with several companies receiving investor research attention since the fourth quarter of 2025.

On January 9, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation published the announcement on the export tax rebate policy adjustments, clarifying that “starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export rebate for photovoltaic products will be canceled. From April 1, 2026, until December 31, 2026, the VAT export rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%; from January 1, 2027, the VAT export rebate for battery products will also be eliminated. For products subject to consumption tax, the export consumption tax policies will remain unchanged.”

This is not the first time the export rebate rate for photovoltaic and battery products has been adjusted. As early as November 15, 2024, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a reduction of the export tax rebate rate for certain products, including refined oil, photovoltaic products, and batteries, from 13% to 9% starting December 1, 2024.

Regarding the impact of the new export tax rebate policy, institutions anticipate that it may lead to a “rush for exports” in the short term. For the photovoltaic industry, Guoyuan International commented that the policy adjustment creates two “export windows,” with a surge in export data expected in the first quarter of 2026. Orders that were originally scheduled for shipment in the second or third quarters may be cleared by the end of March. The first quarter’s component exports could see significant growth compared to market expectations; from the second to the fourth quarters of 2026, battery export shares are likely to see a temporary increase. Integrated companies may adjust their internal supply chains to prioritize external sales of battery cells, leading to a substantial rise in battery export figures.

Overall, Guoyuan International believes that while the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy may cause short-term pain, it will ultimately benefit the photovoltaic industry by enhancing its global competitiveness. This policy is not merely negative; rather, it serves as an important catalyst to help the industry transition from rapid, unregulated growth to high-quality development. Investors are encouraged to focus on technology leaders, cost controllers, and pioneers of new markets.

Following the release of the new export tax rebate policy, the capital market reacted positively. On January 12, 2026, lithium carbonate futures surged, with the main contract hitting a limit up and rising by 9% to 156,060 yuan/ton, marking the first time in two years it exceeded 150,000 yuan. In the A-share market, companies like Daos Technology, Dongfang Risheng, Maiwei Co., Jiejia Weichuang, and Xingyun Co. saw their stock prices increase over 10% or hit the limit up on the same day. According to reports, some photovoltaic companies have confirmed they will maintain continuous production during the Spring Festival.

As for the photovoltaic equipment and battery sectors, data from Wind shows that within the Shenwan photovoltaic equipment industry, there are 70 constituent stocks, with 63 companies disclosing their foreign income ratios for the 2025 mid-year report, including companies like Airo Energy, Youli Intelligent, ST King Kong, Canadian Solar, Jinko Solar, and Sungrow, all of which have more than 50% of their income from overseas. Compared to data from the end of 2024, 39 of these companies have reported an increase in their overseas income ratios.

Similarly, in the Shenwan battery industry, among 106 constituent stocks, 77 companies have disclosed their foreign income ratios for the 2025 mid-year report, with companies such as Huabao New Energy, Zhejiang Hengwei, Yema Battery, Funeng Technology, and Pylon Technologies also exceeding 50%. In comparison to the end of 2024, 45 battery companies have seen an increase in their overseas income ratios.

For listed companies in the photovoltaic equipment and battery sectors, stock price fluctuations are influenced not only by policy changes but also by the earnings forecasts being disclosed for 2025. According to Wind statistics, as of January 13, 2026, four photovoltaic equipment companies have released their earnings forecasts for 2025: Aotwei, An Cai Gao Ke, Jinko Technology, and Yijing Optoelectronics. Aotwei, known for its expertise in photovoltaic, lithium battery, and semiconductor manufacturing, anticipates a revenue range of 639,258.11 million to 674,081.12 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 26.71% to 30.50%. Its net profit is expected to be between 43,064.23 million and 57,127.27 million yuan, down 55.12% to 66.17% year-on-year.

Aotwei attributes this performance decline to the cyclical nature of the photovoltaic industry, stating that its equipment business continues to decline without noticeable improvement. Due to extended equipment acceptance times, the company’s revenue has significantly decreased compared to the same period last year. This revenue drop has directly impacted its gross profit, and the company’s net profit has sharply declined due to impairment provisions.

To demonstrate operational confidence, Aotwei announced a Restricted Stock Incentive Plan on December 18, 2025, proposing to grant up to 5.7 million shares to incentive targets. The aim of this plan is to establish a long-term incentive mechanism to attract and retain talent, align the interests of shareholders, the company, and the core team, and promote the company’s long-term development.

Since the announcement of the incentive plan, Aotwei’s stock price has risen by 48.36%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 7.62% and the Wind photovoltaic equipment index rose by 8.7%.

In contrast to Aotwei’s projected revenue decline, An Cai Gao Ke and Yijing Optoelectronics anticipate continued losses. An Cai Gao Ke has indicated that its net profit attributable to shareholders will be negative for 2025, while Yijing Optoelectronics expects a net profit loss of between -45 million to -60 million yuan. Jinko Technology has forecasted a net profit loss of -4.5 billion to -4.8 billion yuan.

Jinko Technology cites a significant supply-demand imbalance caused by the concentrated release of production capacity across the photovoltaic industry chain as a reason for its anticipated losses, exacerbated by increasing competition and international trade protection policies that have pressured sales prices and profitability.

Among the three battery companies disclosing earnings expectations, one anticipates growth while two expect losses. Tian Ci Materials, which is projecting a net profit range of 110 million to 160 million yuan for 2025, attributes this growth to the rising demand in the new energy vehicle market and rapid growth in the energy storage market. The company also noted that improved production capabilities and cost management contributed to its enhanced profitability.

In contrast, Zhenhua New Materials, which reported a loss of 528 million yuan in 2024, expects to incur a net profit loss of -50 million to -40 million yuan in 2025. The reasons for its losses include declining demand for existing products and low capacity utilization rates, leading to high fixed costs per product.

Rongbai Technology is also forecasting a first-time loss, expecting a net profit in the range of -19 million to -15 million yuan. The company cites a decline in sales volume as the primary reason for its performance pressure, although they reported a significant recovery in the fourth quarter.

Despite the challenging earnings forecasts, many companies in the photovoltaic equipment and battery sectors have recently attracted institutional research interest. The photovoltaic equipment index has risen over 60% since late June 2025, while the Wind battery theme index has seen a maximum increase of over 100% since April 9, 2025.

Furthermore, investor research data reflects a positive market sentiment. According to Wind, among the 70 companies in the Shenwan photovoltaic equipment sector, 47 have received investor research since the fourth quarter of 2025, with 42 of these involving institutional participation. In the Shenwan battery sector, 71 out of 106 companies have also received investor attention, with 62 involving institutional participation.

Within the photovoltaic equipment companies, Jinko Solar, Yubang New Materials, Daqo Energy, and Aotwei have been surveyed three times or more since the fourth quarter of 2025. Jinko Solar was questioned about the photovoltaic market’s potential in space computing during one of its recent surveys, to which they responded by highlighting the future applications of high-efficiency and lightweight photovoltaic technology in low-orbit communication satellites and space solar power stations.

In the battery sector, companies such as Fangyuan Co., Fengyuan Co., and Jiao Cheng Ultrasonics have also been surveyed multiple times. Citic Securities recently conducted a survey of Jiao Cheng Ultrasonics, where the company outlined its technological advancements and applications in new energy batteries and semi-conductor sectors.

In addition to Jiao Cheng Ultrasonics, Haopeng Technology also attracted institutional interest in January, with a focus on its AI-related business revenues. The company detailed its diverse AI offerings, emphasizing that its AI business is increasingly contributing to its overall revenue and is expected to enhance profitability in the coming years.

(The stocks mentioned in this article are for illustrative purposes and do not constitute investment advice.)