Hybrid Vehicles Gain Ground, Challenging the Dominance of Electric Cars

Hybrid Vehicles Gaining Ground: Challenging the Dominance of Pure Electric Cars

As we approach 2025, a significant shift is quietly taking place in the automotive industry. The rapid development of fuel-efficient hybrid vehicles in 2024 has increased their share in the new energy vehicle landscape, posing a challenge to the market share of pure electric vehicles.

The Historical Commitment to Hybrid Technology and Market Awakening

Since Toyota launched the first hybrid vehicle, the Prius, in 1997, hybrid technology has emerged as an “invisible champion” in the industry’s low-carbon transition. Over the past 15 years, Japanese automakers, particularly Toyota, have remained steadfast in their commitment to hybrid technology. After five iterations, the fuel consumption of Toyota’s hybrid models has decreased to just 3.8 liters per 100 kilometers, significantly reducing emissions.

In recent years, many Chinese automotive companies have invested in the research and development of hybrid fuel engines, including plug-in hybrids and range-extended electric vehicles, breaking the silence and making a strong debut. The commitment to hybrid technology is set to see a market reversal in 2024: sales of hybrid models in China increased by 80%, far exceeding the 35.5% growth rate for all new energy vehicles. The proportion of hybrids in the new energy vehicle sector surged from 18.3% in 2020 to 40% in 2024. China’s hybrid technology has transitioned from a “follower” to a “leader,” moving beyond policy-driven growth into a new, market-driven phase.

Shifts in European Policies and Corrections in the Chinese Market

Looking beyond China, Europe has shifted its policy stance. Initially aggressive in pursuing a “complete ban on combustion engines,” the reality of energy conservation and emissions reduction has prompted adjustments. Starting in 2035, the EU plans to halt the sale of new combustion vehicles, including hybrids. This shift is directly linked to market performance: in 2024, hybrid sales in Europe accelerated while the growth of pure electric vehicles slowed. Consumers have cast their votes with their feet—hybrids present an excellent solution for balancing environmental concerns and practicality in areas with insufficient charging infrastructure.

China is also making adjustments at multiple levels. In 2024, a representative from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the simultaneous development of traditional internal combustion engine technologies alongside new energy vehicles, fostering collaboration between traditional and new energy automotive sectors. Various regions have also introduced or improved policies related to hybrid vehicles to promote industry growth. This is a breakthrough worth applauding.

Due to previous restrictions on hybrid technology in certain countries, relevant authorities did not provide subsidies for this energy-saving and emission-reducing technology. Now, China has risen prominently as a major player in hybrid technology research and application, making this adjustment necessary.

Additionally, the adjustment is driven by market realities: the average price of pure electric vehicles fell below 150,000 yuan in 2023, while the mainstream price range for hybrids stabilized between 200,000 and 300,000 yuan. The demand for upgraded consumption is driving a reconfiguration of technology routes.

Hybrid Technology: A Pathway Forward

Since 1997, I have visited Japan three times to interview Toyota and engage in discussions with their executives, exploring the underlying logic of hybrid technology. I previously wrote about the essence of this technology, which involves recovering energy lost during braking and coasting and storing it in a small battery. As the vehicle moves, the battery supplies electrical power, working in tandem with the fuel engine to achieve energy savings and emissions reductions. Toyota referred to this as hybrid electric power.

This foundational logic can be applied to all new energy electric drive technologies. Starting with hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), increasing battery capacity and adding a plug for charging creates plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Removing the fuel engine while retaining the electric motor, battery, and electronic control results in battery electric vehicles (EVs). Replacing the engine with a hydrogen fuel cell stack and adding two hydrogen tanks gives us hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

Today’s plug-in hybrids originated from Toyota’s concept: in addition to fuel hybrids, a larger battery with an external charging source participates in propulsion. This eliminates the “range anxiety” associated with pure electric vehicles and improves the acceleration limitations of traditional hybrids. Range-extended vehicles, initiated by General Motors’ Volt, utilize a small engine to generate electricity when the battery is depleted. Today, China’s range-extended vehicles have upgraded to operate solely on a fuel extender generator, effectively making them self-generating electric vehicles. The engine operates smoothly during electricity generation, resulting in notable fuel savings compared to conventional combustion vehicles.

China’s Advanced Hybrid Technologies

In recent years, numerous domestic companies have developed a variety of hybrid systems, such as Geely’s Leishen, Great Wall’s Wey DHT-PHEV, BYD’s DM-i, Changan’s Blue Whale iDD, and Chery’s Exeed M3X, among others. Chery, the largest exporter of new energy vehicles in China, has been deeply engaged in engine technology for 16 years. Recently, Chery announced the launch of its latest dedicated hybrid engine—Kunpeng Sky Engine—boasting a thermal efficiency of over 48%, setting a new global record in the hybrid engine sector.

I believe that given China’s vast territory and diverse energy structure, the multi-route development of new energy vehicle technologies aligns better with actual demands, and plug-in hybrids represent a significant pathway in this evolution. Therefore, for the foreseeable future, combustion vehicles will continue to hold a mainstream position in the global automotive market, while hybrid technology will significantly drive innovation and upgrades in traditional combustion vehicles.