The cost projections for battery storage systems, particularly utility-scale lithium-ion batteries, vary significantly across different scenarios. These variations are often driven by factors such as technology advancements, market trends, and the extent of cost reductions over time. Here’s a breakdown of the cost projections across various scenarios:
Cost Projections Scenarios
NREL Projections
- Low, Mid, and High Cost Projections:
- By 2030, costs are projected to be between $245/kWh and $403/kWh.
- By 2050, costs are expected to fall further, ranging from $159/kWh to $348/kWh.
- The reduction from 2022 to 2030 ranges from 47% in the low-cost scenario to 16% in the high-cost scenario. By 2050, these reductions range from 67% to 21%, respectively.
Technology Innovation Scenarios
- Conservative Scenario: Assumes a slower cost reduction with a 5.8% decline from 2030 to 2050.
- Moderate Scenario: Anticipates a more balanced reduction with a 37% decrease in CAPEX between 2022 and 2035.
- Advanced Scenario: Forecasts the most significant reductions, with a 52% decrease in CAPEX between 2022 and 2035.
Industry and Market Trends
- IRENA Projections: By 2030, total installed costs for energy storage could decrease by 50% to 60% due to manufacturing optimizations and economies of scale.
- General Trends: The cost of battery storage, particularly lithium-ion, has been declining due to advancements in technology and increased demand from sectors like electric vehicles.
Summary of Key Cost Projections
| Year | Scenario | Cost Range ($/kWh) |
|---|---|---|
| 2030 | Low, Mid, High | $245-$403 (NREL) |
| 2050 | Low, Mid, High | $159-$348 (NREL) |
| 2030 | Industry Projections | Potential 50-60% decrease (IRENA) |
| 2025 | Battery Pack Forecasts | LFP cells potentially reaching $100/kWh (Fastmarkets) |
In summary, while there is variation in the exact cost projections, all scenarios anticipate continued cost reductions for battery storage systems driven by technological improvements and market growth.
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