The growth of new energy power generation capacity is expected to see a positive trend, with performance in related stocks likely to improve. On April 21, the Global Energy Internet Development Cooperation Organization and the National Climate Center jointly released the 2025 Global New Energy Power Generation Outlook Report, marking the first global annual forecast for new energy generation capacity. According to the report, taking into account variations in meteorological factors and the increase in installed capacity, it is anticipated that by 2025, global wind and solar power generation capacities will increase by more than 10% and 30%, respectively, compared to 2024.
As China continues to advance its “dual carbon” goals, the significance of renewable energy within the country’s power system is becoming increasingly evident. Data released by the China Electricity Council shows that by the end of 2024, the total installed capacity of new energy generation in China, including wind, solar, and biomass energy, will reach 1.45 billion kilowatts, surpassing that of thermal power for the first time.
According to the National Energy Administration, in the first quarter of 2025, the total electricity consumption across the country was 2.38 trillion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Among this, the clean energy generation from hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power was 700 billion kilowatt-hours, up by 10.3% year on year. The emergence of new industries, models, and driving forces is becoming the core catalyst for electricity consumption growth. Driven by big data, cloud computing, and 5G, the daily electricity consumption in the national internet and related services sector saw a year-on-year increase of 25.7% in the first quarter, highlighting the robust development of the digital economy.
In February of this year, the National Energy Administration issued the 2025 Energy Work Guidance Opinion, which stated that the total installed power generation capacity in the country should exceed 3.6 billion kilowatts this year, with new installed capacity for renewable energy expected to surpass 200 million kilowatts. In terms of green and low-carbon transformation, the guidance proposes that the share of non-fossil energy power generation should increase to around 60%, while the proportion of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption should rise to approximately 20%.
The new energy sector encompasses numerous publicly listed companies, with this article focusing mainly on solar, wind, energy storage, and hydropower. However, due to intensified industry competition and fluctuations in domestic and international demand, growth rates in various sectors of new energy have slowed, leading to lackluster stock performance. According to statistics from Data Treasure, as of April 23, the average decline for new energy stocks this year has been 3.9%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index during the same period. Several stocks, including Maiwei Technology, JA Solar, Canadian Solar, Daquan Energy, Sungrow Power Supply, and Tongwei Co., have seen declines exceeding 20%.
Despite the disappointing performance in the secondary market, institutional interest in new energy stocks remains high. According to Data Treasure, a total of 88 concept stocks have been investigated by institutions this year, with 12 of these stocks receiving more than four rounds of research, averaging at least one investigation per month. Companies such as BYD, China Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Group, Yunnan Energy Investment, Xintian Green Energy, and Keda Group topped the list in terms of research frequency. For instance, BYD has been investigated by institutions a total of 21 times this year. Recently, during an institutional inquiry, the company reported that its sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 1 million units in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59.8% and setting a new historical record for that period. Additionally, overseas sales of new energy vehicles have seen significant growth, further solidifying its position as the global leader in this sector.
BYD estimates its net profit for the first quarter of 2025 to be between 8.5 billion and 10 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 86.04% to 118.88%. Looking ahead, according to consensus estimates from more than five institutions, 49 new energy stocks are expected to achieve a net profit growth rate exceeding 20% over the next two years. Leading stocks such as BYD, Yiwei Lithium Energy, JinkoSolar, DeYuan Co., and Guoxuan High-Tech are included in this group.
In terms of valuation, as of April 23, among the 49 stocks mentioned, 26 had a rolling price-to-earnings ratio below 30 times, with Canadian Solar, DeKang Co., LuoTao Co., CITIC Bo, and ZhongGreen Electric all under 20 times. Additionally, 8 stocks had a price-to-book ratio of less than 2 times, including ZhongGreen Electric, Goldwind, LuoTao Co., Yunda Co., XinWangDa, Canadian Solar, Zhongwei Co., and Yigor. Based on the closing prices on April 23 and the target prices predicted by institutions, 19 stocks have potential upside exceeding 30%, with 6 stocks showing potential gains of over 50%, namely ShangNeng Electric, Maiwei Technology, JinLang Technology, DeKang Co., Foster, and New Zhongbang.
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