SolarPower Europe (SPE) has released its latest report, titled “Global Solar Market Outlook 2025-2029”, predicting that the global photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity will reach 655 GW in 2025 under a neutral scenario, representing a 10% year-on-year growth. While this increase is significant, it shows a marked slowdown compared to the 33% growth seen in 2024, when the new installed capacity was 597 GW. SPE highlights that the policy directions in the two largest PV markets, China and the United States, may further dampen the growth outlook for 2025. Additionally, the failure of EU member states to effectively implement a unified policy framework is another contributing factor.
Given this context, SPE has provided a conservative forecast for 2025, estimating an increase of 548 GW, which represents an 8% decline year-on-year. In an optimistic scenario, if component prices remain low and China’s policy incentives continue, the new installed capacity could reach 774 GW, marking an almost 30% year-on-year growth.
In 2024, the top ten PV markets collectively accounted for 81% of the new installed capacity. China led the way with 329 GW of new installations, a 30% increase year-on-year, and representing 55% of the global total. The United States followed closely with a record addition of 50 GW, a 54% increase, while India saw a remarkable growth of 145%, reaching 30.7 GW. Brazil and Germany ranked fourth and fifth, with new installations of 18.9 GW and 17.4 GW, respectively.
The remarkable growth in installations over the past year can be attributed to ongoing advancements in PV technology and historically low prices resulting from overcapacity in the supply chain. As a cornerstone technology for combating climate change and ensuring energy security, the strategic importance of solar energy continues to rise. Walburga Hemetsberger, CEO of SPE, stated, “The solar era has fully arrived. Although the pace of development varies by region, the commonality is the need to build a more flexible and fully electrified energy system, where key technologies like energy storage will play a foundational role. Global decision-makers must ensure that their electricity flexibility plans align with the progress of solar energy and maximize its potential.”
Looking ahead, SPE’s Market Intelligence Director and Executive Advisor, Michael Schmela, noted during the Intersolar Europe 2025 event that the Chinese market may experience a temporary stagnation in 2026 due to adjustments in design mechanisms. However, from 2027 onwards, global PV installations are expected to return to double-digit growth. He added, “In the long term, the continued decline in component prices, the rising demand for electrification across industries, and the increased priority on energy security will support ongoing growth in PV demand. Nevertheless, short-term uncertainties, especially relating to the evolution of Chinese policies, may still lead to temporary fluctuations.”
The report indicates that by 2024, solar energy will account for 81% of the global new renewable energy installations, increasing its share in the global power generation mix to 7%. To achieve the cumulative target of 8 TW set by the Global Solar Council by 2030, an average of approximately 1 TW of new capacity needs to be added each year. SPE projects that by 2029, under a neutral scenario, annual new PV installations will reach 930 GW, and in an optimistic scenario, they could exceed 1.2 TW. Achieving the goal of 1 TW of new installations by 2030 is therefore “not out of reach.”
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