SolarPowerEurope (SPE) has released its latest report titled “2025-2029 Global Solar Market Outlook”, which predicts that by 2025, the global photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity will reach 655 GW, marking a 10% increase from the previous year under a neutral forecast. While this growth figure is significant, it represents a notable slowdown from the 33% growth seen in 2024, when the newly installed capacity was 597 GW.
SPE indicates that the policies in the two major PV markets, China and the United States, could further dampen the growth outlook for 2025. Additionally, the inability of EU member states to effectively implement a unified policy framework has also contributed to this situation. In light of these factors, the report presents a conservative estimate for 2025 at 548 GW, an 8% decline year-on-year. Conversely, in an optimistic scenario where component prices remain low and Chinese policy incentives persist, newly installed capacity could reach 774 GW, a nearly 30% increase from the previous year.
In 2024, China dominated the global PV market, followed by strong growth in the United States and India. The top ten PV markets accounted for 81% of the newly installed capacity that year. China led with 329 GW of new installations, a 30% increase, representing 55% of global new capacity. The U.S. followed with a record 50 GW of new installations, experiencing a 54% year-on-year growth, while India saw a remarkable 145% increase to reach 30.7 GW. Brazil and Germany ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, with new capacities of 18.9 GW and 17.4 GW.
The significant increase in installations over the past year can be attributed to ongoing advancements in PV technology and historically low prices resulting from overcapacity in the industry supply chain. As a cornerstone technology for addressing climate change, ensuring energy security, and supporting national energy strategies, solar energy’s strategic importance continues to rise. Walburga Hemetsberger, CEO of SPE, stated, “The solar era has fully arrived. Although the pace of development varies by region, a common need is to build a more flexible and fully electrified energy system, with technologies like energy storage playing a foundational role. Global decision-makers must ensure that their electricity flexibility plans align with solar development and maximize its potential.”
In 2026, a temporary adjustment may occur due to changes in design mechanisms in the Chinese market, but by 2027, global PV installations are expected to return to double-digit growth. Michael Schmela, SPE’s market intelligence director and executive advisor, noted during the Intersolar Europe 2025 exhibition in Munich that, in the long term, continuing decreases in component prices, increased demand for cross-industry electrification, and heightened priorities for energy security will sustain the growth of PV demand. However, short-term uncertainties surrounding the evolution of Chinese policies may still lead to fluctuations.
Looking ahead to 2030, the report suggests a goal of adding 1 TW of PV capacity annually. In 2024, solar energy is expected to account for 81% of new global renewable energy installations, increasing its share in the global power generation mix to 7%. To meet the 8 TW cumulative target set by the Global Solar Council by 2030, an average of 1 TW of new capacity must be added each year. SPE forecasts that under a neutral scenario, annual new PV installations could reach 930 GW by 2029, and under an optimistic scenario, exceed 1.2 TW, making the goal of achieving 1 TW in annual new installations by 2030 “not unattainable.”
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