SolarPower Europe (SPE) recently released its latest report, “Global Solar Market Outlook 2025-2029,” predicting that the global photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity will increase by 10% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 655 GW under a neutral forecast. While this growth figure is significant, it represents a marked slowdown compared to the 33% growth rate in 2024, which saw an addition of 597 GW of new installations. SPE attributes this potential slowdown to policy directions in the two major PV markets, China and the United States, which could further inhibit growth in 2025. The inability of EU member states to effectively implement a unified policy framework also contributes to this issue.
In light of these factors, SPE provides a conservative estimate of 548 GW for 2025, reflecting an 8% decline year-on-year. Conversely, in an optimistic scenario where component prices remain low and Chinese policy incentives continue, annual additions could reach 774 GW, marking an increase of nearly 30%.
In 2024, China dominated the global market, with the top ten PV markets accounting for 81% of the year’s new installations. China led with 329 GW added capacity, a 30% increase, representing 55% of the global total. The United States followed closely with a record 50 GW of new installations, a 54% increase, while India saw a remarkable growth rate of 145%, reaching 30.7 GW. Brazil and Germany ranked fourth and fifth with 18.9 GW and 17.4 GW, respectively.
The surge in installations over the past year can be attributed to ongoing advancements in PV technology and historical low prices due to overcapacity in the supply chain. As a foundational technology for addressing climate change and ensuring energy security, the strategic importance of solar energy continues to escalate. SPE CEO Walburga Hemetsberger stated, “The solar era has fully arrived. While the pace of development varies by region, the common theme is the need for a more flexible and fully electrified energy system, with storage and other key technologies providing essential support.”
Experts predict a brief adjustment in 2026 due to design mechanism changes in the Chinese market; however, from 2027 onwards, global PV installations are expected to return to double-digit growth. Michael Schmela, SPE’s Director of Market Intelligence, noted that long-term factors such as declining component prices and heightened demand for electrification across industries will continue to support PV demand growth. Nonetheless, short-term uncertainties, particularly regarding Chinese policy developments, may lead to fluctuations.
In a broader context, the report indicates that in 2024, solar energy will account for 81% of global new renewable energy capacity, increasing its share in the global power generation mix to 7%. To meet the 8 TW cumulative target set by the Global Solar Council before 2030, the world needs to add approximately 1 TW of capacity each year. Under a neutral scenario, SPE forecasts that by 2029, annual new installations will reach 930 GW, with an optimistic scenario surpassing 1.2 TW. Achieving a target of 1 TW annually by 2030 is therefore deemed achievable.
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