The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported on October 7, 2025, that the growth of global renewable energy is slowing down, primarily due to policy changes in the United States and China. This slowdown makes it challenging to achieve the goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030, a target set during the final agreement at the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) held in Dubai.
In its latest annual report, the IEA projected that by 2030, the total installed capacity of global renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydropower is expected to reach 2.6 times the levels seen in 2022. This forecast is 5% lower than last year’s expectations, reflecting changes in global policies, regulations, and market environments since October 2024.
The report identified two main reasons for the downward adjustment in growth expectations. Firstly, the U.S. plans to phase out federal tax incentives for renewable energy ahead of schedule, along with other regulatory adjustments, leading to a nearly 50% reduction in the IEA’s growth forecast for the U.S. market. Secondly, China’s shift from fixed feed-in tariffs to a competitive bidding system for renewable energy purchases has impacted project profitability, reducing growth expectations for the Chinese market.
The IEA now anticipates that by 2030, global renewable energy capacity will increase by approximately 4,600 gigawatts (GW), equivalent to the total current generating capacity of China, the European Union, and Japan combined. In contrast, the agency had previously predicted an increase of over 5,500 GW between 2024 and 2030, heralding a “near tripling” of capacity. However, the IEA noted that this adjustment is somewhat offset by positive developments in other regions, particularly in India, Europe, and many emerging markets and developing countries, where growth prospects have been upgraded.
Regionally, China remains the leader in renewable energy development, but India is expected to become the world’s second-largest market for renewable energy growth, with its capacity forecasted to increase 2.5 times within five years. In the European Union, countries like Germany, Spain, Italy, and Poland are driving a slight upward revision in renewable energy growth forecasts. Additionally, the Middle East and North Africa region has seen a 25% increase in renewable energy development expectations.
According to the IEA, in the next five years, approximately 80% of new renewable energy capacity will come from solar photovoltaics, followed by wind, hydropower, biomass, and geothermal energy. The development of geothermal energy is expected to reach historic highs in key markets such as the United States, Japan, and Indonesia. Meanwhile, hydropower is gaining more attention due to its ability to provide grid stability through mechanisms like pumped storage.
Despite ongoing challenges such as supply chain issues, rising costs, and delays in approvals, the IEA expects that by 2030, global wind power capacity will nearly double. However, the growth outlook for offshore wind has declined, primarily due to policy changes in major markets like the United States. The IEA also cautioned that enhancing grid flexibility is essential for better integration of intermittent renewable energy sources. By 2030, renewables like wind and solar are projected to provide about 30% of global electricity supply, doubling the current levels.
The IEA pointed out that some countries are currently experiencing electricity “curtailment” and negative pricing (where supply exceeds demand), indicating a lack of sufficient flexibility within the power system. To address this, the IEA recommends accelerating the deployment of smart electric vehicle charging technologies, flexible dispatch mechanisms, and energy storage solutions.
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