Global Photovoltaic Market Analysis: Current Status in 2025 and Outlook for 2030 in the Race for Net-Zero Emissions

The global photovoltaic (PV) market is facing challenges in 2024, including weak economic performance, insufficient grid capacity, and tariff barriers. As a result, the market is expected to enter a phase of slower growth starting in 2024. According to InfoLink statistics, global PV installations are projected to reach approximately 486 GWac in 2024. When adjusted for regional projects and capacity ratios, the demand for PV components globally is estimated to be around 584 GWdc, reflecting a growth of 26% compared to 2023. However, this marks a significant slowdown from the over 60% annual increase observed between 2022 and 2023.

Examining individual regional markets, the Asia-Pacific region is expected to add about 333 GWac of new installations in 2024, with a corresponding component demand of 391 GWdc, representing a 41% growth year-on-year, and accounting for 67% of the global market. In 2025, new installations are anticipated to range between 315-355 GWac, leading to a component demand of approximately 367-410 GWdc. This indicates a year-on-year change between a decline of 6% to a growth of 5%, with the Asia-Pacific’s market share slightly decreasing to 63%.

The top five PV markets within the Asia-Pacific region for 2025 are projected to be China, India, Pakistan, Australia, and Japan, with China accounting for about 75% of the regional demand. The market dynamics in China are influenced by policies such as “430” and “531,” and as 2025 marks the end of the “14th Five-Year Plan,” the market sentiment is expected to be more conservative, which will further impact annual demand. It is anticipated that China’s new installations will decline to 255-275 GWac, with a corresponding demand for PV components of around 290-310 GWdc.

In India, the government continues to drive market development through project tenders and subsidy programs, with most installation targets set for 2026. New installations and component demand in India are expected to grow, with estimates of 30-37 GWac for new installations and 37-46 GWdc for component demand.

In Europe, new installations in 2024 are forecasted to reach approximately 72 GWac, with a component demand of about 80 GWdc, indicating a 2% growth compared to 2023 and comprising 14% of the global market. For 2025, new installations are expected to be between 75-88 GWac, leading to a component demand of 84-98 GWdc, which represents a growth of 5-22% from 2024, increasing Europe’s market share to 15%.

The leading PV markets in Europe for 2025 are predicted to be Germany, Spain, Italy, France, and Poland, with Germany alone representing around 23% of the European market demand. Despite facing fiscal challenges and economic pressures, Germany plans to invest €100 billion in climate and economic transformation. Annual new installations in Germany are expected to be around 18.5-20.5 GWac, corresponding to a component demand of 20-23 GWdc.

In the Americas, new installations in 2024 are estimated at 61 GWac, with a component demand of 71 GWdc, reflecting a 7% decline year-on-year, accounting for 12% of the global market. For 2025, new installations are projected to range from 53-70 GWac with component demand between 69-83 GWdc, showing a potential decline of 3% to a growth of 16%, capturing 13% of the global market. The top five markets in the Americas for 2025 are expected to be the United States, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Colombia, with the U.S. holding about 60% of the market.

The U.S. market is significantly impacted by the tariff policies introduced during the Trump administration, leading to increased uncertainty that may dampen future demand and manufacturing expansion. In Brazil, rising interest rates and the end of tariff exemptions on imported PV components will likely result in a decline in new installations to 12.5-15 GWac, with a component demand of 14.5-16.5 GWdc.

In the Middle East, new installations are expected to reach 14 GWac in 2024, with a corresponding component demand of 34 GWdc, showcasing a 56% growth year-on-year and accounting for 6% of the global market. For 2025, new installations are projected to be between 17-25 GWac, leading to a component demand of 38-46 GWdc, representing a growth of 9-33% and increasing the market share to 7%.

The top markets in the Middle East for 2025 are expected to be Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE, Oman, and Israel, with Saudi Arabia capturing approximately 46% of the market. The Saudi government has been actively promoting large-scale PV projects, which is expected to drive significant growth in the region.

In Africa, new installations are projected to reach 6 GWac in 2024, with a component demand of 7 GWdc, reflecting an 11% growth year-on-year, accounting for 1% of the global market. For 2025, new installations may rise to between 7-12 GWac, with a component demand of 8-14 GWdc, indicating a growth of 17-95% and increasing the market share to 2%.

The top markets in Africa for 2025 are expected to be South Africa, Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, and Nigeria, with South Africa accounting for about 20% of the market demand. Despite challenges, the net metering compensation framework introduced by the South African government is expected to boost local distributed PV project demand.

In summary, global new installations in 2025 are estimated to fall between 466-549 GWac, with component demand ranging from 566-650 GWdc. In a neutral scenario, market demand in 2025 is projected to show a 3% decline compared to 2024, while in an optimistic scenario, growth could reach as high as 11%, with an average growth rate around 4%. Although the component market is entering a mature stage, with growth rates not as rapid as before, the overall demand is expected to remain stable, driven by the global push for renewable energy and net-zero carbon targets.

Looking ahead to 2030, global new installations are expected to reach between 655-763 GWac, with component demand projected to rise to 758-895 GWdc, becoming a crucial driving force in the energy transition and climate change mitigation.