Global LNG Report Projects Demand to Exceed 700 Million Tons by 2045

On May 22, during the third day of the 29th World Gas Conference, the International Gas Union (IGU) released the 2025 Global LNG Report. This report outlines the future development pathway for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and serves as an authoritative reference for the global gas industry, providing greater certainty and confidence for the stable evolution of the world energy landscape.

The report comprehensively reviews the achievements and profound transformations in the global gas industry over the past three years. It summarizes the IGU’s significant practices in promoting global industry cooperation and modernizing governance systems while proactively proposing future work priorities and strategic directions.

IGU Secretary-General Menelaos Ydreos noted that although LNG trade growth is expected to slow in 2024, the market fundamentals remain robust. This growth is supported by numerous ongoing projects. He highlighted that Canada is set to achieve its first export delivery soon, while Mexico and Congo are emerging as new exporting countries. LNG is increasingly becoming a key resource for energy security in the global energy system.

Mark McCrory, IGU’s Director of Strategy and Communication, elaborated on four key strategic points from the report:

1. Stable Trade Volume Growth: In 2024, global LNG trade volume is projected to increase by 2.4% year-on-year. Although this is slightly below expectations, it does not indicate a weakening market demand, but rather reflects the industry’s resilience and adaptability in a complex environment.
2. Continuous Capacity Expansion: There are still many capacity projects under construction globally, ensuring future supply. However, this also brings uncertainties regarding delivery timelines and financial returns.
3. Multiple Supply and Demand Challenges: Driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, global energy demand is diversifying. Yet, factors such as geopolitical tensions, international trade barriers, and carbon emission regulations pose significant impacts on the stability and flexibility of the supply chain.
4. Innovation-Driven Green Transition: In the future, LNG will play a critical role in alternative fuels for shipping, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), and reducing methane emissions. The industry is accelerating its strategic transition from traditional high-carbon energy to green and clean energy.

During the press conference, Nancy Xi, a partner at Rizhao Energy, highlighted that the current nominal capacity of global LNG has reached 594 million tons, but the actual operating rate is still below 40%, indicating that the supply potential has not been fully activated. She noted that with the operation of 742 LNG carriers, transportation flexibility has significantly improved. Looking ahead, global LNG demand is expected to exceed 700 million tons by 2045, indicating a persistent long-term capacity gap in the market. The industry must proactively plan and enhance its resilience for sustainable development.

How will the global LNG industry develop in the future? At a plenary session held that day, industry experts from both China and abroad engaged in in-depth discussions to explore cutting-edge trends and strategies in the sector.

General Manager Zhou Xinhai of China National Offshore Oil Corporation stated that natural gas has become a vital force driving global energy transformation. LNG’s high flexibility allows it to effectively ensure regional energy security amid escalating geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather events. As a clean and low-carbon energy source, LNG increasingly supports the global green transition, reshaping the natural gas market and profoundly influencing the evolution of the global energy system.

Carlo Bardini, Director of International and European Affairs at the Italian Ministry of Energy and Environment, also emphasized the continued importance of natural gas in the energy structure over the next decade. He noted that market demand and capacity are both on the rise, indicating promising prospects for cooperation between countries. In the current geopolitical climate, LNG’s strategic value as a flexible and secure energy option is becoming more pronounced. Approximately 1,100 LNG projects are currently pushing for market expansion, leading to a more diverse supply in the future, with both Asian and European markets actively reshaping their import structures. Bardini believes that China is playing an increasingly significant role in the global LNG supply chain, with substantial investment and development potential.