The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its report titled “Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025” on May 14. The report indicates that despite recent economic challenges affecting the automotive industry, the sales of electric vehicles (EVs) continue to break records due to increasingly affordable prices. In 2024, global EV sales are expected to exceed 17 million, with their share of the total automotive market surpassing 20% for the first time, aligning with the IEA’s previous predictions.
By 2025, global electric vehicle sales are projected to surpass 20 million, accounting for more than 25% of total new car sales. In the first quarter of 2025, EV sales are anticipated to grow by 35% compared to the previous year, with all major markets and many others achieving record sales for the first quarter.
China continues to lead the electric vehicle market, with EV sales in 2024 representing nearly half of total vehicle sales. The number of electric vehicles sold in China last year (over 11 million) was equivalent to the total global sales in 2022. Emerging markets in Asia and Latin America have also become new centers of growth, with total EV sales in these regions surging by over 60% in 2024. In the United States, EV sales grew by approximately 10% year-on-year, making up 10% of total vehicle sales. Meanwhile, in Europe, EV sales have stagnated due to a reduction in subsidy programs and other support policies, though the market share of EVs remains around 20%.
According to Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the IEA, “Our data shows that despite significant uncertainties, electric vehicles are still on a strong growth trajectory worldwide. Sales continue to set new records, impacting the global automotive industry significantly. This year, we expect that one in every four cars sold globally will be an electric vehicle, with rapid growth in many emerging economies. As electric vehicles become increasingly affordable, this proportion will exceed 50% by the end of this decade.”
While uncertainties regarding global economic growth and trade policies may affect forecasts, the report highlights that EV sales are driven by their growing affordability. Globally, the average price of electric vehicles is declining in 2024 due to increased competition and reduced costs of power batteries. In China, last year, two-thirds of all sold electric vehicles were priced lower than traditional models, even without purchase subsidies. However, in many other regions, a price gap still exists between EVs and conventional vehicles. For example, the average price of electric vehicles in Germany is 20% higher than that of traditional models, and in the United States, EVs remain 30% more expensive.
In many areas, based on current energy market prices, the operational costs of electric vehicles remain lower than those of traditional cars. Even if oil prices drop to $40 per barrel, the cost of driving an electric vehicle in Europe through home charging is still about half that of driving a traditional vehicle.
The report notes that nearly one-fifth of global EV sales are imports, with China accounting for over 70% of global production. In 2024, China exported nearly 1.25 million electric vehicles to other countries. These export destinations include many emerging economies, where the prices of electric vehicles have significantly decreased due to the influence of Chinese imports.
The report also pays special attention to electric trucks and their ownership costs. Driven by a doubling in sales in China, the sales of electric trucks increased by approximately 80% globally last year, making up nearly 2% of global truck sales. Some heavy-duty electric trucks in China are cost-competitive with diesel trucks, as their lower operational costs offset the higher purchase prices.
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