Global Climate Summit: Over 120 Countries Submit NDCs Amid US Absence and EU Disputes

On September 24, local time, the United Nations Climate Change Summit was held in New York, where 120 countries and the European Union announced new greenhouse gas reduction targets for the next decade. Under the framework of the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries are required to submit increasingly ambitious reduction plans every five years. However, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the current progress in global emissions reduction is significantly lagging, putting the 1.5-degree Celsius temperature control goal at risk of collapse.

Despite the willingness expressed by most countries to enhance climate action, scientists at the summit indicated that, under the current plans, the Earth could still warm by 3 degrees Celsius, far exceeding the safety threshold established by the Paris Agreement. Guterres emphasized, “Science demands action, law demands action, and the economic situation also compels us to act.” Notably, the United States, as the world’s largest historical emitter, was not only “absent” from this summit, but President Donald Trump also referred to the climate crisis as “the greatest hoax ever” in his speech at the UN the previous day, criticizing clean energy policies and starkly contrasting with the mainstream consensus of the international community.

Former U.S. Secretary of State and Special Climate Envoy John Kerry acknowledged in an interview that the fluctuations in U.S. policy have impacted global climate cooperation and weakened international trust. He pointed out that, in light of the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the weakening of clean energy policies, China should continue to play a leading role. He also stressed that the drive for energy transition comes not only from the government but also from the market. “By 2024, over 90% of new global electricity will come from renewable energy, and this trend is hard to reverse,” Kerry stated. “The decision-makers in energy transition are the capital markets, not the public discourse.”

At the special summit on new climate goals, Guterres urged countries to “reduce greenhouse gas emissions further and faster.” He pointed out that most countries are falling seriously behind in fulfilling their temperature control commitments, failing to effectively avoid exceeding the established temperature rise limits. In his address the previous day, Guterres described fossil fuels as “a failed gamble” and warned that the international goal of keeping global temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius is facing the risk of “collapse.” He emphasized that the upcoming UN climate negotiations in Brazil (COP30) must establish “a credible global response plan” to help get global climate action back on track.

All countries are currently uploading their new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the UN website, and more detailed and comprehensive analyses will take some time. However, the focus remains on the United States, China, and the European Union. On the same day that Guterres issued his warning, Trump rebuffed mainstream climate science in his UN speech, claiming the climate crisis is “the greatest hoax ever” and criticizing wind turbines as “sad.” He asserted that the green energy agenda has put many countries “on the brink of destruction” and revealed that he had pressured nations like the UK to increase oil production. Previously, the Trump administration had twice exited the Paris Agreement, which naturally resulted in no new NDC submission and absence from the upcoming climate conference in Brazil this November.

In the interview, Kerry noted that the U.S. stance on energy transition has had tangible effects on global climate efforts. The U.S. exit from the Paris Agreement and the weakening of clean energy investments send dangerous signals to the international community, undermining trust and hindering global cooperation at a critical time. However, he pointed out that the force behind energy transition comes not only from the government but also from economic laws. In 2024, over 90% of newly added global electricity is expected to come from renewable energy, a trend that is hard to reverse. He emphasized that “the winners of the energy transition are determined not by public opinion, but by capital markets.” The economic appeal of clean energy is continuously increasing, and actions at local, grassroots, and corporate levels are ongoing, often unaffected by the fluctuations in federal policies.

Manish Bapna, President of the Natural Resources Defense Council, also noted that contrary to Trump’s opposition to climate action, most major emitting countries have committed to continuing to reduce climate pollution in the coming years. These commitments bring hope to the world, but the current pace and scale of emissions reduction are still insufficient to address the most severe impacts of climate change.

During the summit, leaders from the vast majority of countries stated that regardless of the fluctuating stance of the U.S. under Trump, nations should unite to accelerate the transition to renewable energy. This consensus is backed by data, as last year global investments in renewable energy sources like solar and wind reached $2 trillion, double the total investments in oil, natural gas, and coal. Bahamian Prime Minister Philip Davis emphasized at an event on September 22 that “decision-makers in each country should realize that replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy does not sacrifice economic prosperity; rather, it is a necessary prerequisite for future prosperity.”

China, as a focal point for global attention, accounts for about one-third of global emissions and has become a leading nation in the clean energy sector. According to Xinhua News Agency, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced new national contribution targets through a video address at the summit: by 2035, net greenhouse gas emissions across the entire economy will decrease by 7% to 10% from peak levels, with non-fossil energy consumption exceeding 30%, and installed capacity for wind and solar energy reaching more than six times that of 2020. Xi stated that this goal was established “in line with the requirements of the Paris Agreement and reflects our utmost efforts,” emphasizing China’s “determination and confidence to fulfill its commitments.” He also called on the international community to “stay on the right path” and not waver in confidence due to the backward movement of individual countries.

UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell positively evaluated China’s national contributions. He stated, “China is providing unprecedented volumes of clean, reliable, and affordable energy. Its latest targets indicate that the acceleration of China’s climate action and manufacturing and deployment will continue to strengthen. The scale of investment driven by these targets will be unprecedented, helping to lower costs and promote global clean energy technological innovation, which is crucial for further expanding clean energy deployment.” Stiell also noted that China has a good track record in achieving and surpassing its climate and clean energy goals and praised Xi’s stated targets and commitment to “strive for better.” He believes that today’s announcement sends a clear signal that the future global economy will rely on clean energy. For all countries, stronger and faster climate action means more economic growth, job opportunities, affordable and safe energy, cleaner air, and healthier populations, which is significant for the entire world.

Li Shuo, Director of the China Climate Center at the Asia Society Policy Institute, stated in an interview that China fully considered multiple domestic and international factors when determining its national contribution targets, demonstrating an awareness of both opportunities and challenges. The target setting continues China’s consistent approach of “pragmatism over promises” and reflects the government’s confidence in fulfilling its commitments. He pointed out that China’s latest commitments should be seen as a “starting point” for climate action in the next decade, serving as “the baseline of ambition, not the ceiling of potential.” Chen Meian, Senior Project Director and Analyst at the Institute for Green Innovation Development, indicated that China’s new round of NDC targets follows a pragmatic path. She recalled that China achieved its 2030 wind and solar installed capacity target of 1.2 billion kilowatts six years ahead of schedule, showcasing strong policy execution and industrial development capabilities. The new targets cover emissions reductions across the entire economy and are expected to push for reductions in non-CO2 greenhouse gases, further enhancing the systemic nature of climate action and sending a signal of “action over words” to the international community.

Wang Xiaojun, Executive Director of the Asia Climate Alliance (Philippines), stated that on the 80th anniversary of the UN, the international community needs to work together unwaveringly to carry out multilateral cooperation. On the 70th anniversary of the Bandung Conference, the principle proposed by China to “adhere to fairness and justice, fully respect the development rights of developing countries, and narrow rather than widen the North-South gap through global green transformation” holds significant historical importance. Developing countries also need to unite to achieve a leapfrog development in technology, economy, and political confidence through a green low-carbon energy transition.

As the global climate governance faces a critical juncture, whether countries can unite in consensus amid differences and implement actions post-commitment will determine whether humanity can maintain the final climate safety line. China’s announcement of new targets is seen as an important signal, yet global cooperation still faces multiple challenges in economics, politics, and implementation capabilities. As another key player in global climate governance, the EU has not finalized its emission reduction commitments, but its legislative body has preliminarily agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 66% to 72% from 1990 levels by 2035. EU Climate Commissioner Frans Timmermans indicated that relevant provisions are expected to be finalized during COP30.

However, Europe’s climate ambitions are also facing practical challenges. As part of trade negotiations with the U.S., EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen committed in August to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. fuels before the end of Trump’s current term. Analysts point out that although this commitment is nearly impossible to fulfill, the plan itself may severely hinder Europe’s transition to renewable energy. Yao Zhe, Global Policy Advisor at Greenpeace East Asia, remarked that “the climate summit on the 24th can be viewed as a subtle yet powerful response to Trump’s ‘climate hoax’ claim. Most countries recognize the positive effects of low-carbon transformation on the environment, economy, and society, and hope to leverage this trend to expand their own development space.” However, she also noted that current global climate actions indeed lack new momentum and leadership. Although over a hundred countries have submitted NDCs, there is still a significant gap between these commitments and the efforts needed to achieve global temperature control goals. The EU has failed to submit new targets on time due to internal disagreements, and while China has proposed absolute emissions reduction targets for the first time, there is still room for improvement in their strength.

In the face of multiple challenges in economics, domestic politics, and geopolitics, whether countries can unite in consensus and form a collaborative force will become the core issue of future global climate governance. Amid these severe challenges, governments will gather in November for COP30 in Belém, Brazil, in an attempt to bridge the emissions reduction gap. However, due to local hotel capacity constraints, the scale of representatives attending may be reduced. Some ministers have already complained that the logistics of COP30 are “a nightmare” and expressed pessimism about achieving substantial outcomes at the meeting.

“The international community must confront the gap between collective NDC targets and actual needs at COP30. Whether the meeting can clearly address this gap and call on all parties, especially major emitters, to reassess and strengthen their targets in the coming years will be crucial. Whether China is willing to support this important discussion and even take the lead in driving up ambitions will be another key measure of its global climate leadership,” Li Shuo concluded.