Electric Vehicles Transition to Power Banks: Experts Predict Over 10 Million V2G Sales in China by 2030

From “consuming electricity” to “feeding back,” can electric vehicles become a household “electric bank”? Experts predict that by 2030, the annual sales of V2G (Vehicle-to-Grid) vehicles in China may exceed ten million units.

On September 22, Li Lili, Deputy Director of the Solar Storage and Flexible Application Technology Research Institute at Tsinghua University’s Sichuan Energy Internet Research Institute, stated at the “Towards Zero Emission Transportation Forum 2025” that V2G is expected to become a significant phenomenon in China’s electric vehicle industry. He noted that the annual sales of V2G vehicles, which can discharge regularly, are anticipated to surpass ten million units by 2030, potentially mirroring the development trajectory of the photovoltaic industry in China.

V2G, or Vehicle-to-Grid technology, involves interactive charging and reverse discharging, enabling bidirectional energy flow between electric vehicles and the power grid. Owners of electric vehicles can charge during off-peak hours and “sell electricity” during peak demand periods, capitalizing on the price difference between peak and off-peak electricity rates.

During the “2025 China Automotive Industry Development (Tianjin) International Forum” held in September, Chinese Academy of Sciences academician and Tsinghua University professor Ouyang Minggao emphasized that V2G represents a significant value opportunity, indicating that electric vehicles could enable free charging or even serve as revenue-generating tools, with pure electric vehicles poised to dominate the market.

Car manufacturers are increasingly investing in V2G technology. At the 2025 Munich Auto Show in September, BMW attracted attention with a wall-mounted bidirectional charging and discharging station, aiming to accelerate the adoption of V2G technology in Europe and globally.

Public data reveals that there are currently 92 V2G pilot demonstration projects across 22 countries and regions, primarily concentrated in Europe and North America. Major multinational car manufacturers, including BMW, Renault, and Mitsubishi, are actively involved in these initiatives.

China is also rapidly advancing its V2G pilot projects. In April of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly announced the first batch of cities for large-scale V2G applications. After expert review, nine cities, including Shanghai, Changzhou, Hefei, Huaibei, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Haikou, Chongqing, and Kunming, were selected as pilot cities. Thirty projects, including the V2G collaborative control project based on new energy storage in Beijing, were also included.

According to Yu Dexiang, Chairman of Telai Electric New Energy Co., Ltd., the next three years are crucial for V2G development, with technological advancements expected to focus on three areas: more efficient power semiconductor devices, more precise battery health assessment algorithms, and more open vehicle-to-charging station-to-grid communication protocols. Breakthroughs in these areas could significantly lower the technical barriers to application.

Recognizing the promising future of V2G, many domestic car manufacturers are actively positioning themselves in this market. BYD, leveraging its blade battery and self-developed bidirectional charging and discharging technology, has already participated in grid peak shaving demonstration projects in Shenzhen and Guangzhou. NIO is exploring a “battery swap, storage, and charging” integrated application model through its battery swap station network in collaboration with the grid. Companies like GAC Aion have also launched models supporting V2G functionality and partnered with the Southern Power Grid to promote applications at community and industrial park levels.

Ouyang Minggao emphasized that the application and promotion of vehicle-to-grid interactions are broad, with significant potential in various scenarios, including buildings (home-vehicle-grid) and transportation (vehicle-energy-road-cloud) as well as industrial parks.

Current data provided by Ouyang Minggao indicates that lithium iron phosphate vehicle batteries typically experience a capacity drop to 70% after about 3,000 full charge and discharge cycles, with a calendar life of 10-15 years. Assuming a single charge offers a range of 500 kilometers, 500 cycles would meet the total mileage requirement of an average family car over 10-15 years, reaching up to 250,000 kilometers. A battery pack with a capacity of 70 kilowatt-hours could store nearly 150,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity for trading. Based on a price difference of 0.2 to 0.5 yuan per kilowatt-hour, some regions could see a price disparity of up to 75,000 yuan, approaching the price of some current vehicles.

However, the commercial realization of V2G still faces two major bottlenecks. Despite the optimistic outlook, a viable path for large-scale implementation has yet to be identified. Li Lili pointed out that the core bottlenecks in advancing V2G at scale are concentrated at the production relationship level and can be categorized into common and differentiated scenario bottlenecks. The common bottlenecks include high equipment costs, with V2G charging stations potentially costing three to five times more than standard DC charging stations, and the absence of a quality assurance system for V2G technology, which creates uncertainties for users and reduces their willingness to participate.

Differentiated scenario bottlenecks vary based on application context. In private settings, households receive electricity directly from the grid, and charging stations are equipped with independent meters. However, there are no clear standards for measuring, settling, and converting the electricity discharged from vehicles. Without supportive pricing policies for grid-connected electricity, users essentially provide “voluntary electricity,” making the business model unviable, and the accompanying grid connection, measurement, and settlement systems remain underdeveloped.

In industrial park scenarios, compatibility is a significant challenge since one charging station must service multiple automotive brands. In public scenarios, the high user participation costs, including travel to the station and waiting times for discharging, drastically exceed the potential earnings from discharging, leading to insufficient commercial viability.

To address these issues, Li Lili suggests that four short-term adjustments in production relationships—equipment subsidies, electricity pricing incentives, quality assurance subsidies, and grid connection upgrades—could help eliminate all bottlenecks in private V2G applications. He believes that industrial park V2G will encounter collaborative development opportunities.

Lu Wencai, Deputy General Manager of Telai Electric’s Market Support Center, also noted that industrial parks and communities will be the primary charging networks for private vehicles in the future. “As of the first half of this year, China had over 36 million new energy vehicles in use, including approximately 2 million new energy commercial vehicles and about 2 million new energy ride-hailing vehicles. This indicates that new energy private cars will be the main participants in vehicle-to-grid interactions,” Lu Wencai stated at the “Towards Zero Emission Transportation Forum 2025.”

Li Lili predicts that by 2027, over half of the models available for sale in China will be equipped with V2G technology, with 70% of regional policies in place, leading to a potential annual sales volume of nearly 2 million V2G vehicles. By 2030, the annual sales of regularly discharging V2G vehicles in China could exceed ten million units.