In a recent weekly update from Solcast, a DNV company, the stark differences in solar conditions across Europe during February were highlighted. While eastern regions enjoyed strong solar irradiance, western and southern areas encountered challenges due to storms and persistent cloud cover.
High pressure settled over Eastern Europe, resulting in clear skies that significantly boosted photovoltaic (PV) generation. In contrast, Storm Coral and a series of low-pressure systems from the Atlantic diminished solar irradiance in the Mediterranean and parts of Western Europe. Areas such as Ukraine, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and southern Poland reported solar irradiance levels significantly above average, with increases of up to one-third higher than typical. Irradiance escalated from an average of 1.7 kWh/day to approximately 2.3 kWh/day, creating ideal conditions for PV generation in these regions.
The principal factor behind this positive trend was a dominant high-pressure system over Eastern Europe and Scandinavia, which limited cloud cover and fostered stable, sunny weather. However, this prolonged dry spell exacerbated drought conditions, particularly in Ukraine. While southern Norway and Sweden also experienced above-average irradiance, their northern locations meant overall PV output remained low despite the clear weather.
On the other hand, Greece and Turkey faced significant disruptions to solar power generation due to Storm Coral, which began on February 18. Developing over Turkey, the storm generated a powerful cold front that swept across Greece and the Mediterranean before moving south into Israel. This system brought unprecedented snowfall to Greece, Cyprus, Turkey, and Israel, leading to snow accumulation on solar panels and a temporary decline in energy output. Furthermore, extensive cloud cover associated with the storm caused solar irradiance levels to drop by more than 20% below average in parts of Greece.
Western Europe, including the British Isles, Portugal, and Italy, also reported below-average solar conditions due to a succession of Atlantic low-pressure systems. Irradiance in these areas fell by 5-15% below normal, as cloud cover and moisture-laden frontal systems frequently moved in from the ocean. An unusually strong jet stream over the Atlantic contributed to these weather patterns, reinforcing the persistent cloudy conditions that limited PV production.
Solcast generates these statistics by monitoring clouds and aerosols globally at a resolution of 1-2 km, utilizing satellite data and proprietary AI/ML algorithms. This data informs their irradiance models, allowing Solcast to calculate irradiance with a typical bias of less than 2%, alongside cloud-tracking forecasts. Over 300 companies managing more than 150 GW of solar assets worldwide rely on this data.
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