Decline in High-Price Polysilicon Purchasing Intentions and the Rising Importance of Module Recycling

Decline in High-Priced Polysilicon Purchasing Intentions and Growing Importance of Module Recycling 【SMM Weekly Review】

In this week’s report, the polysilicon price index stands at 52.36 yuan/kg, with N-type polysilicon feedstock priced between 50.1-55 yuan/kg and granular silicon priced at 50-51 yuan/kg. The polysilicon market has shown minor fluctuations, with trading activity being relatively slow during the National Day holiday, leading to a noticeable resistance against high-priced resources. Prices from silicon manufacturers vary, as the market awaits the upcoming polysilicon industry conference in October. Production in October is expected to exceed previous forecasts, with an anticipated month-on-month increase of about 3,000 to 5,000 tons.

Silicon Wafer: During the National Day holiday, the overall average price of silicon wafers remained stable. N-type 183 silicon wafers are priced at 1.35 yuan/piece, while 210R wafers are at 1.4 yuan/piece, and 210mm wafers are priced at 1.7 yuan/piece. Following the recent Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, there may be preliminary conclusions regarding the cancellation of export tax rebates for modules. If this occurs, it could stimulate export demand in the coming months, with a 9% profit margin encouraging enterprises and traders to rush to export ahead of time, thereby supporting silicon wafer demand. However, there are differing forecasts for Q4, with a predominant pessimistic outlook focusing on end-user demand. We will closely monitor actual production schedules to assess future price trends.

Battery Cells: For P-type cells, the FOB price for PERC182 cells is 0.041-0.042 USD/W, maintaining stability. N-type cell prices include Topcon183N cells priced at 0.32-0.325 yuan/W (FOB China port price: 0.040-0.046 USD/W); Topcon210RN cells have a mainstream transaction price of 0.287-0.29 yuan/W (FOB price: 0.038-0.042 USD/W), while Topcon210N cells range from 0.305-0.32 yuan/W, averaging 0.31 yuan/W. HJT cell prices for HJT30% silver-coated copper are stable at 0.35-0.36 yuan/W, with most sales being for self-use or contract manufacturing, limiting external sales.

On the first day post-holiday, new order signings were limited, and short-term price trends are expected to follow pre-holiday patterns. Notably, the 210N model has seen some price increases to 0.32 yuan/W, driven by strong production schedules. Future trends will depend on downstream purchasing sentiment. Currently, supply-side factors do not exert downward pressure on prices, though manufacturers are shipping based on pre-holiday orders and are experiencing a slight slowdown due to module companies’ holiday schedules. Overall inventory accumulation remains manageable.

On the demand side, the outlook is optimistic. India’s “double-reverse” policy has not yet significantly impacted battery manufacturers’ shipments, and there is a general expectation that October to November will be a critical window for the implementation of this policy. This could trigger a stockpiling wave that further supports overseas demand. Given the pricing link effect of overseas markets on domestic 183N battery cells, prices are expected to stabilize at around 0.32+ yuan/W.

Overall, the October photovoltaic battery cell market is characterized by a tightening in total volume and structural differentiation. Demand, driven by India’s ALMM policy, and domestic concentrated projects for high-efficiency battery cells jointly support the market; meanwhile, supply is gradually shifting towards TOPCon passivation technology and larger-sized high-efficiency capacities. Under the influence of cost support and structural demand, the industry is gradually entering a phase of “volume control for price protection and structural optimization.”

Modules: During the National Day holiday, photovoltaic module companies paused production as planned, resulting in a slight decrease in module supply. It’s estimated that there will be further declines in domestic module production expectations for October. Cost pressures on domestic module manufacturers are increasing; however, recent tender projects have been on the decline, with concentrated installations falling short of expectations and distributed transaction volumes rapidly decreasing. This has made module transactions quite challenging. Some leading domestic companies began slightly lowering prices to clear inventory, while others maintained high prices supported by previous orders. As a result, the module market is showing significant differentiation, but the overall trend indicates a clear decline in module prices for October. Currently, domestic Topcon 182mm (distributed) modules are priced at 0.665-0.686 yuan/W; Topcon 210mm (distributed) modules are priced at 0.673-0.691 yuan/W; and 210R (distributed) modules are priced at 0.680-0.700 yuan/W. For centralized installations, 182 modules are priced at 0.650-0.668 yuan/W and 210 modules at 0.665-0.683 yuan/W, with prices showing a downward trend.

Module Recycling: As the first batch of photovoltaic power plants approaches their retirement phase, the importance of module recycling is increasingly recognized. According to data from Weber Consulting, glass, aluminum, and semiconductor materials collectively account for a staggering 92% of crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules, along with about 1% of precious metals like silver. If high recovery rates are achieved, it is projected that by 2030, approximately 1.45 million tons of carbon steel, 1.1 million tons of glass, 540,000 tons of plastic, 260,000 tons of aluminum, 170,000 tons of copper, 50,000 tons of silicon, and 550 tons of silver could be recovered from discarded modules, with a cumulative raw material value of around 7.7 billion yuan; by 2040, this value could reach 110 billion yuan.

The “national team” has accelerated its layout: the China Resources Recycling Group (registered capital of 10 billion yuan) was established in 2024 to focus on the recycling of wind and photovoltaic equipment. A subsidiary of China Orient Asset has invested over 18 billion yuan in Urumqi, Xinjiang, and Wuzhong, Ningxia, to build the world’s largest photovoltaic module recycling industry chain project, with an annual processing capacity expected to exceed 1.4 million tons. Meanwhile, leading companies like JinkoSolar, JA Solar, and Longi Green Energy have also initiated recycling demonstration projects, covering everything from technology development to production line construction.

Currently, mainstream recycling methods include physical disassembly and pyrolysis separation. However, due to high costs for regulated companies and strict environmental requirements, profit margins are limited. Some small to medium-sized enterprises are capturing market share with lower environmental costs and flexible pricing, leading to a “bad money drives out good” phenomenon in the industry. Industry estimates indicate that the breakeven point for a single production line is about 5,000 tons, requiring a gross margin of around 25% to be profitable, with industry profitability highly sensitive to fluctuations in prices for silver, copper, and other bulk commodities.

As the wave of retirements approaches, along with policy support and increased capital from central state-owned enterprises, the photovoltaic module recycling industry is entering a rapid growth phase. In the future, driven by improved regulation, technological breakthroughs, and increased industry concentration, this field is expected to transition from a “small workshop model” to a new stage of high standards, scale, and integrated industrial chains, becoming a new growth pole in the photovoltaic industry chain.

End Market: This week, the photovoltaic module market showed stable prices but declining volumes. According to SMM statistics for the week (September 22 to September 28, 2025), domestic companies won a total of 42 photovoltaic module projects, with disclosed winning prices concentrated in the range of 0.69-0.74 yuan/W. The weighted average price for the week was 0.72 yuan/W, reflecting an increase of 0.01 yuan/W from the previous week; the total procurement capacity was 466.25 MW, which is a decrease of 3,398.47 MW compared to the previous week.

SMM analysis indicates that the slight price increase is primarily due to the weighted average price rise in the major bidding capacity range (100MW to 200MW), which accounted for 25.71% of the total capacity with an average price of 0.72 yuan/W, up by 0.01 yuan/W from the previous week.

In terms of capacity, the total bidding volume for the week saw a significant decline, mainly due to the presence of an oversized project last week, namely the “China Power Construction 2025 First Batch N-type (TOPCon) Photovoltaic Module 3000MW Concentrated Procurement Project,” which led to a high baseline. In terms of capacity segments, the 50MW to 200MW range accounted for 85.69%, making it the primary segment; the average price for small and medium-sized segments (5MW to 20MW) was concentrated between 0.71-0.72 yuan/W; prices for segments smaller than 5MW are largely undisclosed.

In terms of geographical distribution, Yunnan province had the highest winning capacity, accounting for 42.85%; followed by Hebei province and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, each accounting for 21.42%. The main bidding information during the statistical period is as follows:

In the “China Power Construction Jiangxi Hydropower Company Tianba Mitian Photovoltaic Power Generation Project Phase I PC General Contracting 120MW Photovoltaic Battery Module Procurement Project,” Tongwei Co., Ltd. won the bid for 120MW modules at 0.72 yuan/W; in the “Tower Energy Co., Ltd. Gansu Province Branch 2025-2027 Distributed Photovoltaic Construction Project Equipment Procurement,” Huansheng Photovoltaic (Jiangsu) Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Datang Mobile Communication Equipment Co., Ltd. won about 20MW modules at 0.71 yuan/W; in the “Dongguan New Feng New Energy Co., Ltd. 2025 First Phase Photovoltaic Module Agreement Supply Procurement Project,” Dongguan Zhixiang Technology Co., Ltd. won about 10MW modules at 0.74 yuan/W.

Photovoltaic Glass: During the holiday, production at photovoltaic glass companies continued normally, but module procurement on the demand side began to decrease. This is due to a forecasted decline in module production in October, coupled with increasing cost pressures on modules leading to a reduced willingness to purchase high-priced glass. The overall market transaction expectations have weakened. As of now, the prevailing transaction price for 2.0mm single-layer coated glass is 13.0 yuan/square meter, while the corresponding price for 210-type glass is 13.5-14 yuan/square meter. It is expected that beginning in October, module manufacturers will further deplete their accumulated inventories from earlier, leading to a rapid decline in glass transactions. Most glass companies plan to stabilize prices temporarily in October and will not exert pressure on downstream companies.

High-Purity Quartz Sand: During the holiday, domestic prices for high-purity quartz sand remained stable. Current market prices are as follows: inner layer sand priced at 58,000-64,000 yuan/ton, middle layer sand at 25,000-31,000 yuan/ton, and outer layer sand at 17,000-21,000 yuan/ton. This week, domestic quartz sand companies still plan to make slight price adjustments. With the increase in supply from domestic and foreign companies, the market is beginning to trend towards oversupply, and with production expectations for silicon wafers also declining, the risk of inventory accumulation for quartz sand is rising. Some small to medium-sized enterprises are starting to offer discounts to facilitate sales, and it is expected that in October, domestic sand companies will primarily adopt a strategy of discounted transactions, leading to intensified market competition.

EVA: This week, the price of photovoltaic-grade EVA ranges from 10,800-11,200 yuan/ton, with a relatively quiet market atmosphere recently. The supply side is gradually becoming oversaturated due to the resumption of production of photovoltaic material by some petrochemical enterprises following maintenance before the holiday. The demand side’s expectation for module production in October is not meeting forecasts, shifting the supply-demand balance towards oversupply, which could lead to a downward trend in EVA photovoltaic material prices after the holiday.

Film: The mainstream price range for EVA film is 13,500-13,700 yuan/ton, while EPE film is priced between 13,900-14,000 yuan/ton. Due to continuous price increases of EVA photovoltaic material before the holiday, cost support has led to new film prices rising in October. However, demand has begun to cool, and with expectations of cost declines, there are also risks of downward pressure on film prices due to the dual squeeze from costs and demand.

POE: The domestic price of POE upon arrival ranges from 10,000-13,000 yuan/ton. Demand for domestic photovoltaic-grade POE is relatively weak, and film companies are mainly maintaining a just-in-time purchasing rhythm. As new domestic capacity is gradually released, the overall supply-demand landscape is improving. However, due to maintenance at some petrochemical companies recently, the spot supply of photovoltaic materials remains tight, and POE photovoltaic material prices are expected to show a slight upward trend.