April Solar Panel Production Surges 215%, Anticipated “531” Policy Delays Raise Concerns

In April, the production of new energy vehicles (NEVs) surged by an impressive 215% compared to the previous year. The “531” policy adjustment has yet to be implemented as anticipated. According to InfoLink Consulting, the supply chain prices for certain components have continued to drop as of the week of May 28. For instance, the prices for N-type cells exhibited variations, with 183N cells priced at 0.95 CNY per watt, 210RN cells at 1.1 CNY, and 210N cells at 1.3 CNY, reflecting an average decline of 5% compared to the week of April 30.

In the N-type battery segment, the primary trading prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N cells were 0.25 CNY, 0.265 CNY, and 0.27 CNY respectively, showing increases of 7.41%, 3.6%, and 5.26% since late April. The price for TOPCon modules reached 0.68 CNY, indicating a 2.86% increase from the previous period.

Despite the overall downward trend in supply chain prices, this is largely driven by a decrease in demand from downstream buyers. According to InfoLink Consulting, the main cause of this price drop is the decrease in demand for “531” products. The new energy finance sector has taken note of the changes occurring over the past year, particularly the significant adjustments in pricing policies. By mid-2025, the adjustments are expected to be particularly pronounced.

On January 27, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) jointly issued a document titled “On Deepening Reforms in the New Energy Market Pricing Mechanism.” This document outlines the expected pricing changes in the new energy market and indicates that the policies would transition from the “solar energy protection” model to a market-oriented “self-recovery” model.

The report states that the pricing for new energy projects is subject to market fluctuations, and the anticipated changes in market demand will dictate future pricing strategies. As per the current energy policies, there is a risk that the pricing for new energy projects may not align with the established market standards.

As the new energy sector evolves, the demand and pricing dynamics are expected to undergo further transformations. The ongoing adjustments in pricing policies will likely affect the market landscape, with significant implications for market participants.

According to the latest estimates from InfoLink Consulting, from January to April, the NEV production capacity reached 104.93GW, an increase of 74.59% compared to the previous year. In April alone, NEV production capacity reached 45.22GW, representing a 215% increase over the same month last year. The production figures indicate that the NEV sector is poised for substantial growth.

In terms of market performance, the main players in the N-type battery segment are expected to continue pushing for price reductions, which could lead to a more competitive market environment. As of late April, the trading prices for major battery models showed variability, with 183N, 210RN, and 210N cells priced at 0.31 CNY, 0.33 CNY, and 0.31 CNY respectively.

Looking ahead, the anticipated “531” policy adjustments have yet to materialize, leading to speculation about the future of NEV pricing. The ongoing developments in the new energy sector suggest that the demand for NEVs will continue to grow, despite the current challenges faced by the industry.

In conclusion, the new energy vehicle sector is experiencing a dynamic transformation, with significant implications for pricing strategies and market positioning. Stakeholders in the industry are advised to stay informed of the evolving landscape as they navigate these changes.