2026: A Breakthrough Year for Quantum Technology According to Zhang Wenzhuo at the Thinkers’ Spring Festival Gala

Zhang Wenzhuo: 2026 Will Be a Year of Remarkable Advances in Quantum Technology

Recently, with the rapid iteration of AI technology and the intensifying global tech competition, quantum technology has emerged as a core field of the new technological revolution, highlighting its developmental value and strategic significance. Under the wave of AI-driven technology, how quantum technology can find its position and leverage its unique advantages has become a key topic of interest for both the tech and industrial sectors.

On January 18, Zhang Wenzhuo, founder of Quami Quantum and a science writer, attended the “Answer Show” event organized by Observer Network. He shared insights from his extensive experience in the quantum field, discussing the evolution of quantum technology and its positioning in the AI era. He elaborated on the core value of quantum technology in expanding human data security and intelligent perception boundaries. Zhang referenced significant milestones, such as the United Nations designating 2025 as the “Year of Quantum Technology” to commemorate the centenary of matrix mechanics established by Heisenberg, Born, and Jordan, and how in 2026, China’s “14th Five-Year Plan” places quantum technology at the forefront of six major industries. By using specific industry case studies, he explored the current status, challenges, and application prospects of the three main directions of quantum technology, clarifying its real value and future pathways in the AI era.

Zhang Wenzhuo: Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for the invitation from Observer Network. I am Zhang Wenzhuo, the founder of Quami Quantum and a first-generation quantum cryptography enthusiast. Today, I want to share how quantum technology can expand the boundaries of human data security and intelligent perception in the AI era. Let’s start with a timely background: In 2025, the United Nations designated it as the “Year of Quantum Technology,” marking the 100th anniversary of the first form of quantum mechanics.

As we enter 2026, our country’s “14th Five-Year Plan” prioritizes quantum technology among the six major industries, even ahead of embodied intelligence, biomanufacturing, nuclear energy, and hydrogen energy. Additionally, 2026 marks the 100th anniversary of Schrödinger’s equation, one of the most renowned concepts in quantum mechanics. Therefore, 2026 is likely to continue the momentum of the “Year of Quantum Technology” and may indeed become a year of significant breakthroughs in quantum technology.

Undoubtedly, we are currently in the AI era; so what role should quantum technology play? About five years ago, when we discussed quantum technology, many practitioners believed that the next information revolution would be driven by quantum information. This logic seemed sound: the last information revolution emerged from quantum mechanics, leading to condensed matter physics and quantum optics, which birthed semiconductors, integrated circuits, and lasers, ultimately resulting in computers and the internet. The next generation of quantum information, as a new branch of physics, was expected to bring about a new wave of information revolution through quantum computing and quantum communication.

However, we underestimated the development of AI. Looking back now, large language models have become robust enough to support a new technological revolution, representing the second information revolution. This revolution does not depend on new branches of physics but rather stems from advancements in information science—specifically, neural networks—leading to deep learning and reinforcement learning technologies that have shaped today’s large models.

This leads us to question: When AI becomes the mainstream technology, does quantum technology have to wait for the “next information revolution” to take center stage? Not necessarily. Quantum technology currently has three main directions: quantum computing, quantum communication and quantum cryptography, and quantum sensing and precision measurement. Quantum computing is aimed more at the far future and may indeed be the protagonist of the next information revolution; however, quantum communication/cryptography and quantum sensing/precision measurement are already impacting our lives with mature technologies being implemented.

To clarify my argument, I will briefly discuss quantum computing, as it represents a human dream. This dream can be likened to aspirations in the agricultural and industrial eras: in the agricultural age, with low transportation and information transmission efficiency, the most coveted dream was immortality, pursued by emperors and alchemists; in the industrial age, the focus was on energy, culminating in the quest for nearly limitless energy, ultimately aiming for controllable nuclear fusion. Quantum computing, like controllable nuclear fusion, embodies humanity’s pursuit of “almost infinite computational power.”

The reason lies in how we treat a quantum bit as a Bloch sphere—a mathematical representation—where classical bits, represented as 0 and 1, are the two furthest points on this sphere. Therefore, flipping a bit in a classical computer is challenging, and this phenomenon only frequently occurs in the memory of spacecraft subjected to cosmic rays, necessitating protective measures against such radiation. However, this issue does not arise on the ground due to atmospheric protection.

Quantum bits, on the other hand, can take any value on the surface of the Bloch sphere. Thus, even a tiny amount of energy can cause them to deviate. The question then becomes how to ensure they remain stable during computation, which requires significant resources. The ratio of approximately 1000:1 means that about 1000 physical quantum bits are needed to maintain and restore a single logical quantum bit through a series of operations, ensuring it does not deviate.

Currently, many quantum computers, including Google’s and the “Zuchongzhi” developed by my former employer, the University of Science and Technology of China, have advanced to “Zuchongzhi 3,” but they still only utilize around 100 quantum bits and have not yet successfully demonstrated error correction of a complete logical quantum bit. While this path is certainly feasible, and no physical law currently prevents it, it remains a long journey ahead.

One might wonder if quantum computers will follow Moore’s Law. The challenge lies in the fact that each additional logical quantum bit must be capable of entangling with every previously existing quantum bit to perform any logical gate computation. Consequently, the difficulty of increasing the number of quantum bits is exponential, essentially negating Moore’s Law. Currently, the number of quantum bits at frontier institutions is growing at a linear rate due to the increasing complexity of adding bits, which sacrifices Moore’s Law; otherwise, the growth would lead to a “super-Moore’s Law.” This explains why quantum computing remains distant from realization.

Despite this, humanity’s pursuit of dreams is unwavering—dreams are always worth investing in. Quantum computing, akin to controllable nuclear fusion, cannot be easily discredited in the short term, continually attracting attention and capital. To draw an imperfect analogy: it’s like a top influencer receiving gifts from a wealthy supporter, fulfilling the supporter’s emotional value—there’s always the possibility that it could one day belong to you. This notion cannot be discredited, but it is challenging, and no one knows when that might happen. Thus, in some sense, dreams satisfy emotional value.

In contrast, the other two directions of quantum technology are not just about emotional value; they genuinely fulfill application value. Speaking of quantum communication and quantum cryptography, a significant event recently highlighted breakthroughs in this area. Just a few days ago, news broke that Chen Zhi, founder of the Prince Group in Cambodia, was detained, with his assets not returned. The funds were reportedly seized by a US-hired hacker team. How did this happen? He converted assets into Bitcoin through mineral investments, and the hackers managed to obtain the wallet’s private key.

This scenario is perplexing in cryptography: if the private key were a true random number, it would be nearly impossible for current computers to crack a 2^256 possibility space. The loss occurred because existing computers lack true random number generators, primarily relying on pseudo-random numbers generated from shorter seeds to create longer strings for private keys. For example, the 12 mnemonic words of a Web3 wallet are not truly random. They are generated from a shorter seed to create a 128-bit random number, which is then used to derive a 256-bit key. The randomness may be quite limited. The Prince Group’s mining pool had a mere 32 bits—2^32—allowing the hacker team to crack the wallet in minutes and transfer all funds within hours. As a result, while the person was returned, it represented a massive loss for China, as most of these Bitcoins originated from fraudulent activities.

More importantly, this issue extends beyond the blockchain and cryptocurrency domains, posing a threat to the entire financial industry: due to the lack of true random machines, short seeds are often used to produce insufficiently random pseudo-random numbers. It is often said that we need to upgrade cryptography to resist quantum computing threats—this is true, but quantum computing is still a way off. This upgrade is more about preparedness for future threats, while the current threat resembles “cheating,” directly compromising private keys, which is a severe warning: the hacker team successfully seized Bitcoin worth $15 billion from the Prince Group.

Thus, a pressing issue for quantum technology is to provide “true randomness.” Quantum technology offers robust and scalable quantum random number generation technology, utilizing small optical chips to stabilize output, capture quantum noise, and convert it into reliable quantum random numbers. We have also issued a declaration for true random numbers aimed at financial security, and our terminal devices—akin to a USB security token or hardware wallet—successfully integrate quantum random numbers with quantum-resistant algorithms. This development suggests a transformative future for financial security, as quantum technology can play a crucial role, paving the way for large-scale applications of quantum key distribution networks and fiber optic networks. Thus, in the near future, we can expect a significant upgrade in financial security driven by quantum technology.

Lastly, let’s discuss the third direction: quantum sensing and precision measurement. This area has a long history. My doctoral research focused on atomic clock physics systems, which were not referred to as “quantum clocks” at the time but simply “atomic clocks.” Related technologies include atomic gyroscopes, atomic accelerometers, and atomic magnetometers, all based on “atomic” technology. As the term quantum technology has gained popularity, many have rebranded, with atomic clocks now termed quantum frequency standards and atomic gyroscopes and accelerometers referred to as quantum navigation devices.

The potential impact of these technologies is significant. Firstly, quantum frequency standards are one of the latest standards in the International System of Units, with all other physical quantities derived from the fundamental unit of time. The time standard originates from the transition frequency between two hyperfine energy levels of cesium atoms. Moreover, with precise timing and the constant speed of light, accurate navigation and positioning can be achieved through the precise measurement of acceleration and angular velocity, enhancing inertial navigation capabilities.

In this direction, traditional classical technologies have approached their limits, and the next competition will be for quantum navigation precision. We can envision a future where major powers compete at sea, attempting to jam satellite signals, rendering satellite navigation ineffective. In such scenarios, the strength of inertial navigation and autonomous navigation capabilities will determine who can better coordinate fleets, effectively target isolated vessels, and ensure safety. Therefore, quantum precision measurement and sensing will be crucial in future geopolitical contests. Quantum magnetometers will also find applications in exploration, radar systems, and even in detecting weak magnetic fields in biological entities (like heart and brain signals) at unprecedented precision.

In conclusion, in the AI era, quantum computing represents a distant dream; quantum communication and quantum cryptography expand the boundaries of data security; while quantum sensing and precision measurement broaden the horizons of intelligent perception. This encapsulates the current positioning of quantum technology in the AI era. Thank you all.