The US solar market installed a record 9.4 GWdc in Q2 2024, a 21% decline quarter-over-quarter but a 29% increase year-over-year. Solar accounted for 67% of new electricity-generating capacity in H1 2024. Domestic module manufacturing capacity exceeded 31.3 GW in Q2 2024. Texas led solar installations with 5.5 GWdc, nearly double Florida’s 2.9 GWdc. The residential segment declined with 1.1 GWdc installed in Q2, a 10% quarter-over-quarter and 37% year-over-year decrease. Commercial solar installed 427 MWdc in Q2 2024, down 5% from Q1 2024. Community solar installed 270 MWdc, declining 12% both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. Utility-scale solar installed 7.6 GWdc, a 59% year-over-year increase.
The report incorporates estimated impacts of potential new AD/CVD tariffs on crystalline silicon cells and modules from four Southeast Asian countries. Despite uncertainty, the report expects modest impacts on solar deployment due to sufficient cell and module production capacity from multiple sources not subject to proposed tariffs.
The US solar industry is forecasted to install at least 40 GWdc per year from 2025 onward, with a 4% expected decline in 2024 installations. From 2025-2029, annual growth will average 4% for the entire industry. Utility-scale solar, the largest segment, continues to face labor availability, high voltage equipment constraints, and interconnection delays.
The report also notes that the US solar industry is the foundation of the energy transition but requires more support to accelerate growth and achieve carbon emissions reduction goals. It highlights the challenges and uncertainties faced by the industry, including equipment shortages, AD/CVD preliminary determinations, and the political environment.
State solar PV installation rankings for H1 2024 show Texas, Florida, and California as the top three states. The report provides detailed insights into market segment outlooks, including residential PV, commercial PV, community solar PV, and utility PV, with forecasts and analysis for each.
PV system pricing declined across all market segments in Q2 2024 due to module price declines, despite increased balance of system and labor costs. The report employs a bottom-up modeling methodology to capture and report national average PV system pricing by segment.
The US Solar Market Insight report is a joint publication of Wood Mackenzie and the SEIA®, providing granular data on the US solar market, identifying and analyzing trends in US solar demand, manufacturing, and pricing by state and market segment over the next five to ten years.
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