Global solar module prices largely stabilize with upward momentum

In a recent weekly update from OPIS, a Dow Jones company, key price trends in the global photovoltaic (PV) industry are examined.

China

The Chinese Module Marker (CMM), which serves as the OPIS benchmark for TOPCon 600 W modules from China, saw a 1.19% increase, reaching $0.085/W Free-On-Board (FOB) China, with prices ranging from $0.082/W to $0.090/W. In contrast, the FOB China Mono PERC module prices remained steady at $0.084/W, with a range of $0.081 to $0.088/W. Prices for FOB China TOPCon 450 W modules for spot loading were stable at $0.092/W, indicating a range between $0.086/W and $0.100/W.

This past week, transactions reflected price increases announced by manufacturers before the Lunar New Year holiday, with prices climbing into the high-$0.080s/W, recovering from a previous all-time low of $0.084/W. Trade sources suggest that this rise is partly due to a seasonal lull in module production since January, with operational rates reported at around 40%. Additionally, a rush in installations for Chinese projects—prompted by a recent announcement regarding power tariff rules—has led to tighter module supply.

For first-half 2025 loading, prices rose by 1.19% to $0.085/W, with higher values between $0.082 and $0.090/W, while second-half 2025 loading prices remained stable at $0.085/W. Furthermore, first-quarter 2026 prices climbed 3.61% to $0.086/W, with higher quotes ranging from $0.083 to $0.090/W.

Market expectations regarding future module price trends are mixed. Some sources predict continued price increases through the second half of 2025 into early 2026, driven by upstream supply cuts and weak module margins. Conversely, others anticipate a price decline after the May 31 deadline tied to the new power tariff policy, which could lead to a sudden drop in domestic module demand and lower prices in the latter half of 2025.

Europe

In Europe, DDP prices for TOPCon 600 W modules rose by 2.06% week-on-week to €0.099 ($0.102)/W, with price indications ranging from €0.095/W to €0.108/W for Tier-1 panels. Meanwhile, EXW Rotterdam (Western Europe) prices for TOPCon 450W modules remained stable at an average of €0.104/W, with price indications between €0.095/W and €0.110/W for Tier-1 panels.

Insiders attribute the increase in module prices since mid-February to real market support. Following China’s announcement of significant changes to its power tariff structure, market players are working to deliver modules for domestic projects before the end of April. Consequently, projects originally scheduled for the second half of 2025 are being expedited into Q2 2025, creating a perceived module shortage in China that has limited export availability and bolstered DDP Europe prices. Expectations of further price increases from March onwards are also surfacing in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) markets, with sources suggesting that DDP TOPCon prices around €0.120/W in CEE could soon become standard.

United States

In the U.S., the spot price for TOPCon 600 W modules DDP has decreased by 2.87% this week to $0.271/W, while the spot price for Mono PERC 450 W modules EXW remains stable at $0.307/W. OPIS is forecasting the cost of TOPCon modules in the first quarter of 2026 at $0.282/W, and Mono PERC modules at $0.272/W.

While manufacturers in Laos and Indonesia continue to provide the lowest-priced options for U.S. buyers, with quotes in the low to mid-$0.20s/W range, insiders warn that new trade investigations are likely to occur once import data justifies them. Reports indicate that large inventories remain in some U.S. warehouses, as many importers purchased modules before the new AD/CVD rates, expecting to sell them later at higher prices. However, as that anticipated price increase has yet to happen, some sellers are now eager to offload excess stock, with one distributor noting the availability of 545-550 W Mono PERC modules at $0.19/W.

OPIS, a Dow Jones company, specializes in energy prices, news, data, and analysis across various sectors, including renewable fuels. It acquired pricing data from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.

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