Analyzing the Challenges of New York’s Climate Act Implementation and the Reliability of Renewable Energy Sources

Wind Blowing Somewhere Does Not Solve the Intermittency Problem

In October 2023, I published an article addressing the argument made by proponents of green energy that “the wind is always blowing somewhere.” This claim suggests that extensive energy storage and new dispatchable emissions-free resources are unnecessary for a future electric system reliant on wind and solar power. Recently, I discovered the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Hourly Electric Grid Monitor, which provides hourly net generation data by energy source for the contiguous United States. This article focuses on the energy source data for 2024, particularly regarding the reliability of wind energy in the context of the “wind is always blowing somewhere” assertion. I contend that relying solely on wind, solar, and energy storage to meet the Climate Act’s net-zero mandates could pose significant risks to reliability and affordability.

Overview

The Climate Act sets a target for New York to achieve “Net Zero” by 2050, which includes an 85% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and a 15% offset of emissions. Specifically, the electric sector must obtain 70% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030, and all electricity must be generated by “zero-emissions” resources by 2040. The Climate Action Council (CAC) was tasked with preparing the Scoping Plan to outline how to fulfill this ambitious clean energy agenda, which was finalized at the end of 2022.

The Scoping Plan anticipates that by 2040, 39% of electric energy will come from wind generation and 30% from solar. However, reliability concerns arise from wind lulls, as noted by CAC member Dr. Robert Howarth, who emphasized the need for a comprehensive plan to transition away from fossil fuels to wind, solar, and hydro power. Although some experts, like Mark Jacobson of Stanford, acknowledge wind intermittency as a challenge, they argue for solutions such as interconnections and energy storage. This article evaluates the necessary interconnections and the extent of energy generation variability during periods of low wind.

Analyzing Wind Generation Data

I utilized the EIA Hourly Electric Grid Monitor to analyze hourly generation data for 2024. The dashboard allows users to change the time period, but only monthly data is available, necessitating a focus on specific months. The categorization of energy generation varies between months; for instance, January includes categories like Wind, Solar, Hydro, and Natural Gas, while December includes Battery storage and Pumped storage.

The EIA data shows that solar generation reached a maximum hourly capacity representing 75% of installed solar capacity. For wind, I expect an even lower percentage compared to observed maximum hourly generation. Furthermore, the data indicates that solar experiences significant hourly variability, being unavailable at night, while wind has 95% variability. Notably, only nuclear power exhibits less variability than total energy generation.

Wind Lulls and Reliability Risks

To assess wind generation reliability, I analyzed the total available wind energy during periods of low output. I found that when wind generation was below a certain threshold (less than 6%), total energy generated was significantly limited. For example, during one 14-hour period, wind facilities produced less than 15% of their maximum capacity, generating only 29 GWh—just 2% of their capability during that time.

A sophisticated analysis is crucial to accurately predict the resource gap for specific areas. This analysis should consider the spatial distribution of wind facilities, interconnections, and contributions from other energy sources. Without appropriate upgrades to the transmission system, it would be challenging to rely on wind energy when local resources are insufficient.

The Need for Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resources

The ongoing debate on managing wind and solar intermittency emphasizes the necessity for a reliable backup system. While some argue technological improvements may address these issues, I remain skeptical. Upgrading the electric transmission system, deploying short-term storage, and developing dispatchable emissions-free resources are essential but costly solutions.

The issue of grid support is paramount. Wind, solar, and battery resources rely on conventional energy systems for stability and reliability. Failure to establish a robust framework could lead to significant challenges as we transition to a predominantly renewable energy system.

Conclusion

Green energy advocates often downplay the challenges of transitioning the electric grid to wind and solar, relying on the notion that “the wind is always blowing somewhere.” However, the 2024 wind energy data suggests that this is far from the reality. A comprehensive reliability resource planning analysis would likely confirm my concerns regarding intermittency and highlight the prohibitive costs associated with overcoming these issues. Coupled with grid support challenges, the vision of a solely wind and solar electric generating system appears increasingly unrealistic.